Time to revisit this thread.  Dow at around 24,500, back to April 2019 levels.  Will it continue going down?  Or is this the bottom?

Hard to tell what will happen with the panic over the Wuhan Flu and program trading.  For a virus that hardly affects 85% of the people who have contact with it, it sure is getting everyone freaking out.  It may take a few months before things settle out given the hysterics.

I"m liking anything that has a high amount on enforced margin selling with no rationale as to why they are off other than market dynamics. Things that have long term fixed cashflows and hard assets. 

Every year in the US around 30-50,000 people die of the flu.  We have a shot for the flu, which alot of people get, and some don't, and which isn't totally effective. The people most vulnerable are the elderly and otherwise infirm.  The symptoms are not that dissimilar to the symptoms associated with the Coronavirus.  The advice at the beginning of flu season is to stay home if you get it, drink alot of fluids, take tylenol to bring down a temperature if you have one, and rest.  Probably it's a good idea to wash your hands alot during flu season so you decrease the chances of getting it, and to avoid people who are sneezing and coughing.

So far, a couple dozen have died in the US from this new virus. A number of them were in a nursing home in Washington, and I presume were infirm. 

Despite the many flu deaths annually, the stock market doesn't freak, and the advice to avoid cruise ships and to have sports events with no fans in the stands doesn't happen.

Now, they say that around 2.5 or 3% of people who get coronavirus die because of it, and I don't know how that stands against the regular flu.  And, I'm not sure how they figure that out, because lots of people, apparently, are tested for the coronavirus due to exposure to someone else, test positive, and are asymptomatic.  Thus, I assume there are others out there who would test positive and are asymptomatic.

It's rather confusing to me.

 

irwin posted:

Every year in the US around 30-50,000 people die of the flu.  We have a shot for the flu, which alot of people get, and some don't, and which isn't totally effective. The people most vulnerable are the elderly and otherwise infirm.  The symptoms are not that dissimilar to the symptoms associated with the Coronavirus.  The advice at the beginning of flu season is to stay home if you get it, drink alot of fluids, take tylenol to bring down a temperature if you have one, and rest.  Probably it's a good idea to wash your hands alot during flu season so you decrease the chances of getting it, and to avoid people who are sneezing and coughing.

So far, a couple dozen have died in the US from this new virus. A number of them were in a nursing home in Washington, and I presume were infirm. 

Despite the many flu deaths annually, the stock market doesn't freak, and the advice to avoid cruise ships and to have sports events with no fans in the stands doesn't happen.

Now, they say that around 2.5 or 3% of people who get coronavirus die because of it, and I don't know how that stands against the regular flu.  And, I'm not sure how they figure that out, because lots of people, apparently, are tested for the coronavirus due to exposure to someone else, test positive, and are asymptomatic.  Thus, I assume there are others out there who would test positive and are asymptomatic.

It's rather confusing to me.

 

It's pretty straightforward. The Flu has a death rate of about 0.1% with about 1% of all Flu sufferers needing hospital care.

COVID-19 has at least 14% being "Severe" and needing hospital care and just under 5%  "exhibiting respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure". In other words 5% of people getting it even if they don't die will be affected in some way for probably the rest of their life.  

Mortality rate is between 2-3% of all cases. That is exceptionally weighted to older sufferers with people over 70 with a nearly 10% mortality rate and over 80 years old with a 15% mortality rate. 

The Flu has a R0 of about 1.3 which means that each person that has the Flu infects 1.3 other people. COVID-19 has an R0 of between 2-3. So it's roughly twice as contagious as the normal Flu. 

According to the CDC in this Flu season in the US there have been 34 million illnesses, 350,000 hospitalizations and 20,000 deaths, Put into COVID-19 terms that could be about 65 million people getting it, 9 million in the hospital because of it, 3 million with respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure because of it and 1.5 million dying of it. 

That's why it's a big deal. 

 

robsutherland posted:
irwin posted:

Every year in the US around 30-50,000 people die of the flu.  We have a shot for the flu, which alot of people get, and some don't, and which isn't totally effective. The people most vulnerable are the elderly and otherwise infirm.  The symptoms are not that dissimilar to the symptoms associated with the Coronavirus.  The advice at the beginning of flu season is to stay home if you get it, drink alot of fluids, take tylenol to bring down a temperature if you have one, and rest.  Probably it's a good idea to wash your hands alot during flu season so you decrease the chances of getting it, and to avoid people who are sneezing and coughing.

So far, a couple dozen have died in the US from this new virus. A number of them were in a nursing home in Washington, and I presume were infirm. 

Despite the many flu deaths annually, the stock market doesn't freak, and the advice to avoid cruise ships and to have sports events with no fans in the stands doesn't happen.

Now, they say that around 2.5 or 3% of people who get coronavirus die because of it, and I don't know how that stands against the regular flu.  And, I'm not sure how they figure that out, because lots of people, apparently, are tested for the coronavirus due to exposure to someone else, test positive, and are asymptomatic.  Thus, I assume there are others out there who would test positive and are asymptomatic.

It's rather confusing to me.

 

It's pretty straightforward. The Flu has a death rate of about 0.1% with about 1% of all Flu sufferers needing hospital care.

COVID-19 has at least 14% being "Severe" and needing hospital care and just under 5%  "exhibiting respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure". In other words 5% of people getting it even if they don't die will be affected in some way for probably the rest of their life.  

Mortality rate is between 2-3% of all cases. That is exceptionally weighted to older sufferers with people over 70 with a nearly 10% mortality rate and over 80 years old with a 15% mortality rate. 

The Flu has a R0 of about 1.3 which means that each person that has the Flu infects 1.3 other people. COVID-19 has an R0 of between 2-3. So it's roughly twice as contagious as the normal Flu. 

According to the CDC in this Flu season in the US there have been 34 million illnesses, 350,000 hospitalizations and 20,000 deaths, Put into COVID-19 terms that could be about 65 million people getting it, 9 million in the hospital because of it, 3 million with respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure because of it and 1.5 million dying of it. 

That's why it's a big deal. 

Except that not everyone is being tested for COVID-19. We have no idea how many people are sitting at home with flu-like symptoms and haven't reported it. In which case, the mortality rate could be lower than what the CDC is reporting.

I'm not denying that it's a big deal, but the 2-3% mortality rate could be lower than that. Whether it's by a little or a lot, we don't know.

I don't think anyone has questioned it's at least an order of magnitude greater than dying of the flu. (That's a lot.) In addition I can vaccinate myself against the flu with various rates of success, but better than nothing. Even if I get the flu the vaccine often reduces the severity of it. Also I have the Tamiflu option. None of this is true of the Coronavirus.

I bought some ExxonMobil today. It's about half of its high for the year, and at this price, the dividend is around 8%. 

I should have my head examined.

thistlintom posted:

We are selling bonds and putting them into stocks.  Bond prices at all time high and stocks have dropped too much.

How is that working out so far this morning?

wineismylife posted:
thistlintom posted:

We are selling bonds and putting them into stocks.  Bond prices at all time high and stocks have dropped too much.

How is that working out so far this morning?

He probably thinks the market tickers are as fake as health concerns.

Did you know the Idiot in Chief, on Friday, talked about how his greatness caused the biggest one day rally in Wall Street history? Did you know he joked about holding press conferences five times a day to help the market? Did you know he sent some of his supporters (chumps) signed charts showing the gain? (Hope you got one Nappy.) Now again the market's in free fall. Will the Grifter in Chief take responsibility? When sexist pigs fly.

Just bought some ABBV at $76 for my long term hold portfolio. Dividend is 6% at that price and I believe more secure as it's Rx stock.

wineismylife posted:
thistlintom posted:

We are selling bonds and putting them into stocks.  Bond prices at all time high and stocks have dropped too much.

How is that working out so far this morning?

No problem, haven't executed on it yet.

Boeing. Went from $415 down to $97 today. They've had their problems lately, but there are only 2 airplane makers in the world....

irwin posted:

Every year in the US around 30-50,000 people die of the flu.  We have a shot for the flu, which alot of people get, and some don't, and which isn't totally effective. The people most vulnerable are the elderly and otherwise infirm.  The symptoms are not that dissimilar to the symptoms associated with the Coronavirus.  The advice at the beginning of flu season is to stay home if you get it, drink alot of fluids, take tylenol to bring down a temperature if you have one, and rest.  Probably it's a good idea to wash your hands alot during flu season so you decrease the chances of getting it, and to avoid people who are sneezing and coughing.

So far, a couple dozen have died in the US from this new virus. A number of them were in a nursing home in Washington, and I presume were infirm. 

Despite the many flu deaths annually, the stock market doesn't freak, and the advice to avoid cruise ships and to have sports events with no fans in the stands doesn't happen.

Now, they say that around 2.5 or 3% of people who get coronavirus die because of it, and I don't know how that stands against the regular flu.  And, I'm not sure how they figure that out, because lots of people, apparently, are tested for the coronavirus due to exposure to someone else, test positive, and are asymptomatic.  Thus, I assume there are others out there who would test positive and are asymptomatic.

It's rather confusing to me.

 

As the test for coronavirus Becomes more widely used the numerator will be much larger than the denominator ( death) Therefore the lethality rate will be lower than advertised https://forums.winespectator.c...01#10611126027138101

redknife posted:
irwin posted:

Every year in the US around 30-50,000 people die of the flu.  We have a shot for the flu, which alot of people get, and some don't, and which isn't totally effective. The people most vulnerable are the elderly and otherwise infirm.  The symptoms are not that dissimilar to the symptoms associated with the Coronavirus.  The advice at the beginning of flu season is to stay home if you get it, drink alot of fluids, take tylenol to bring down a temperature if you have one, and rest.  Probably it's a good idea to wash your hands alot during flu season so you decrease the chances of getting it, and to avoid people who are sneezing and coughing.

So far, a couple dozen have died in the US from this new virus. A number of them were in a nursing home in Washington, and I presume were infirm. 

Despite the many flu deaths annually, the stock market doesn't freak, and the advice to avoid cruise ships and to have sports events with no fans in the stands doesn't happen.

Now, they say that around 2.5 or 3% of people who get coronavirus die because of it, and I don't know how that stands against the regular flu.  And, I'm not sure how they figure that out, because lots of people, apparently, are tested for the coronavirus due to exposure to someone else, test positive, and are asymptomatic.  Thus, I assume there are others out there who would test positive and are asymptomatic.

It's rather confusing to me.

 

As the test for coronavirus Becomes more widely used the numerator will be much larger than the denominator ( death) Therefore the lethality rate will be lower than advertised https://forums.winespectator.c...01#10611126027138101

Backwards, or upside down.    The numerator is deaths; denominator is confirmed cases.  If confirmed cases increased, that deaths do not (or at a slower rate), the mortality rate goes down.  On March 12, there were 38 death and 1323 confirmed cases in the US  = 2.8% mortality.

Today, 285 deaths and 24,148 confirmed cases (what a difference only 10 days makes) = 1.2% mortality.

bomba503 posted:

Just bought some ABBV at $76 for my long term hold portfolio. Dividend is 6% at that price and I believe more secure as it's Rx stock.

I was looking at ABBV.  It's a bit pricey (but slipping),  Humira is not their cash-cow anymore. 

Are you (or anyone else here) looking at other pharma, such as MRNA, NVAX, INO?

I said this in August 2019. I bought in at the early part of 2018. 

I will go out on a limb and say I think Shopify (SHOP) will be a $1000 stock by 2025. It is currently at 370.  I got in at 108 about a year and a half ago

today’s closing price is $1030. Quite remarkable. I never expected it to happen this fast

wow very nice pick!

my bet is going on jet blue.  esp if trump is going to get voted out.  it's a 3x banger if he does

@italianwino posted:

I said this in August 2019. I bought in at the early part of 2018. 

I will go out on a limb and say I think Shopify (SHOP) will be a $1000 stock by 2025. It is currently at 370.  I got in at 108 about a year and a half ago

today’s closing price is $1030. Quite remarkable. I never expected it to happen this fast

Very nice!

I recall us talking about this when you all came to visit us at our Santa Fe casa... in between watch talk, Clos de Tart talk/ drink ... and...😎

@italianwino posted:

I said this in August 2019. I bought in at the early part of 2018. 

I will go out on a limb and say I think Shopify (SHOP) will be a $1000 stock by 2025. It is currently at 370.  I got in at 108 about a year and a half ago

today’s closing price is $1030. Quite remarkable. I never expected it to happen this fast

Well they are the exclusive TV seller of fine Invicta watches.

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