What Stocks do you like right now?

I'm curious, for those that play the market with all or part of your investments, do you track how you do with them relative to the general market and if so are you ahead or behind the market?

I used to do some stock picking, but now leave it up to my investment managers.
quote:
Originally posted by ThistlinTom:
I'm curious, for those that play the market with all or part of your investments, do you track how you do with them relative to the general market and if so are you ahead or behind the market?

I used to do some stock picking, but now leave it up to my investment managers.


I have a mix of both.

if i have a investment manager, i expect them to keep pace/beat a passive index fund since I have a fairly aggressive risk stance and the fees arent the lowest.

for the stuff i do look at, well im strickly gambling.
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
Well, the analysts seem to be coming around on oil.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news...-bofa-s-blanch-video

Meanwhile, the equities have had a good week. They’ll be overbought short term but the trend is set for higher prices this summer.

I’ve just about finished rounding out my positions for the bull run.

Bfw


haha this guy again.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/201...oils-black-swan.html

"I think in 2017 june oils' going to be 75$ bla bla bla black swan"

one takes a look at oil charts in 2017 june? 44.45

nice call.


As with equities, they were oversold, strong earnings to start brought them back, but there seems to be noise as the later earnings seem to falter a little.

That would be them fairly efficiently priced. This market at this day is neither overbought nor oversold.
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
Well, the analysts seem to be coming around on oil.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news...-bofa-s-blanch-video

Meanwhile, the equities have had a good week. They’ll be overbought short term but the trend is set for higher prices this summer.

I’ve just about finished rounding out my positions for the bull run.

Bfw


haha this guy again.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/201...oils-black-swan.html

"I think in 2017 june oils' going to be 75$ bla bla bla black swan"

one takes a look at oil charts in 2017 june? 44.45

nice call.


As with equities, they were oversold, strong earnings to start brought them back, but there seems to be noise as the later earnings seem to falter a little.

That would be them fairly efficiently priced. This market at this day is neither overbought nor oversold.


The energy rotation from tech seems to be gathering steam as I figured.

BTE
CJ.TO
GTE
CPG

all with good gains over the last couple of weeks while the overall market has faltered.

bfw
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
After reviewing your oil company recommendations I did buy CPG and have made some dough on that one thanks


Good stuff! BTE has been the real outperformer lately as it appears heavy oil supplies are tight with the Venezuelan collapse.

I'm holding tight for now.

The other stock I keep buying is TH.to/THERF. The market is still clueless on them as I see their peak earnings at over $3 Canadian in a few years.

bfw
Will do. It's in the middle of range so for me the easy gains have been made and I'll wait for it to make a big move one way before going back in for the bounce back. If I had to guess it will be the bull fund JNUG next. but I don't play favorites, I just go with the trends
I wouldn't write off Baytex. It was really over-bought so needed a pullback.

BFW, I agree that CDN heavy oil is seeing an upsurge because of Venezuela, but not sure it's really benefiting BTE right now. Reading their Q1 report it's their Eagle Ford properties which are helping cash flow.

Their debt levels worry me still.

As for Crescent Point. I hold this dog. Last year I started to sell some for tax purposes and will continue to do so as needed. I hope management gets more than an earful today at their AGM, but not to the point of putting 4 Cation people on the board. 0.8% of the shares doesn't even come close to warrant that.
quote:
Originally posted by steve8:
I wouldn't write off Baytex. It was really over-bought so needed a pullback.

BFW, I agree that CDN heavy oil is seeing an upsurge because of Venezuela, but not sure it's really benefiting BTE right now. Reading their Q1 report it's their Eagle Ford properties which are helping cash flow.

Their debt levels worry me still.

As for Crescent Point. I hold this dog. Last year I started to sell some for tax purposes and will continue to do so as needed. I hope management gets more than an earful today at their AGM, but not to the point of putting 4 Cation people on the board. 0.8% of the shares doesn't even come close to warrant that.


Agreed.

BTE is up about 70% in a month and some are complaining of a 3.3% drop today?!?

Anyway, their heavy oil will benefit them big time going forward. Debt levels could easily be dealt with if oil prices continue up as I expect. They can always sell some Eagle Ford.

CPG is hated so will take longer to rise.

My TH.to/THERF broke out today on big volume to new highs. Should be more running room ahead Smile

Bfw
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
I’m curious to know if you guys have BTE and if so did you sell it after that run?


Yes...I own and did not sell a single share.

Last purchase was $4.11 Canadian.

BTE could hit double digits if oil increases and stays in the $70-80 range for a bit.

Bfw
i made the safer bet and bought BP @ 39.

with an exit strategy at 46. I still can't see oil increasing yet another 15-20% from here (puts WTI @ ~ 80) but I could be wrong. High oil prices favor the big caps initially with the small caps to follow when oil gets REALLY high. But if you can see oil hitting another 15-20% rally, then by all means, the small caps mentioned would be good buys.

BP ~16% increase over a span of a month, happy to take profit and run.

might not get the big swings from the small caps, but at least i dont have to worry about 30% downside.
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
i made the safer bet and bought BP @ 39.

with an exit strategy at 46. I still can't see oil increasing yet another 15-20% from here (puts WTI @ ~ 80) but I could be wrong. High oil prices favor the big caps initially with the small caps to follow when oil gets REALLY high. But if you can see oil hitting another 15-20% rally, then by all means, the small caps mentioned would be good buys.

BP ~16% increase over a span of a month, happy to take profit and run.

might not get the big swings from the small caps, but at least i dont have to worry about 30% downside.


Glad you are making some money in the undervalued energy sector.

However, your statement about big vs small cap outperformance is not accurate given recent price action.

Typically, institutional money that wants some exposure to energy will hide out in the big names during a bear market. They will hide out in Suncor, Shell, BP etc.

Meanwhile, the overlevered small cap names such as a BTE will be shorted to oblivion.

Therein lies the opportunity once the bear flips.

Last month or so BTE is up 70% vs BP’s performance.

Bfw
We're not saying different things

You're talking about a gain from market structure. I'm talking about a gain from fundamentals.

You can indeed be correct if there is a short squeeze, but I don't know the overnight supply for borrows of the small caps you mentioned to make that call.
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
I’m curious to know if you guys have BTE and if so did you sell it after that run?


Unfortunately, no. Up more than 5% today. I have owned it twice in the past and am watching it.

They will also benefit from a lower spread between WCS and WTI prices. The current $15 is much better than the almost $30 at one point in Q1.
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
After reviewing your oil company recommendations I did buy CPG and have made some dough on that one thanks


Good stuff! BTE has been the real outperformer lately as it appears heavy oil supplies are tight with the Venezuelan collapse.

I'm holding tight for now.

The other stock I keep buying is TH.to/THERF. The market is still clueless on them as I see their peak earnings at over $3 Canadian in a few years.

bfw



Oil continuing to gradually strengthen.

It will be a bumpy road but some are already calling for $100 Brent this year. I’m not quite that bullish but am happy to hold many oil equities.

TH.to/THERF is flying lately as I think the market is finally recognizing it. Plenty of room on the upside still IMHO.

Bfw
My pleasure. In full disclosure I have no system other than following it all day every day and getting a feeling for how it trades and the range. I look for a few days up or down in a row with it at or near a top/bottom of the range. Then I jump in for the bounce back taking a solid profit but not worrying about grabbing the last dollar. I claim no intelligence or skill. Im probably just lucky but I have managed to gain 25% on IRA YTD.
The real danger is getting caught in a 3X bear fund when precious metals explode. I just don’t see that happening anytime soon though and if it does I’ve got plenty of actual physical that I’ll sell.
Most of those leveraged ETFs have a decay factor as well So it’s never a good idea to be in them for more than a couple weeks.
quote:
Originally posted by bomba503:
My pleasure. In full disclosure I have no system other than following it all day every day and getting a feeling for how it trades and the range. I look for a few days up or down in a row with it at or near a top/bottom of the range. Then I jump in for the bounce back taking a solid profit but not worrying about grabbing the last dollar. I claim no intelligence or skill. Im probably just lucky but I have managed to gain 25% on IRA YTD.


it's called "mean reversion" =)
I actually sold portions of BTE, CVE and CJ yesterday.

I thought oil might be getting extended short term.

Anyway, I ended up plowing all that money in to ATU.V as they made a transformational sale and are aggressively moving forward with drilling. (Altura Energy). I think this name will quadruple in 18 months.

Finally, my TH.to/THERF has been a big mover lately. Prescriptions for their new drug (Trogarzo) are exceeding expectations. I think TH.to could hit $30 in a year ($24 or so for THERF).

Bfw

It's a good time to reassess the price of oil after the drop.  As noted 3 months ago wti 75 was a possibility but market seems capped at wti 73 for the technical resistance.

Be interesting to see how consumer demand is during this memorial day weekend with high gas prices at the pumps.

g-man posted:

It's a good time to reassess the price of oil after the drop.  As noted 3 months ago wti 75 was a possibility but market seems capped at wti 73 for the technical resistance.

Be interesting to see how consumer demand is during this memorial day weekend with high gas prices at the pumps.

I’m chuckling here. You were quite bearish oil and Brent hit over $80 with WTI just under $73....in May!

Anyway, as posted here , I sold some chunks 10 days ago or so and it worked out well. I expect the OPEC jawboning gives the bears a chance to test $66 then $62 on WTI in the next few weeks prior to the OPEC meeting.

Then, OPEC will at worst just decide to replace some lost Venezuelan production and the oil market will move to bull mode until the Fall. I expect $85 for Brent and up $78-80 for WTI in July.

On another note, my TH.to/THERF closed at another all time high today. The market is beginning to comprehend their earnings power and my target is $30 Canadian next year so a double from here. First shares bought at 30 cents

 

bfw

bfw posted:
g-man posted:

It's a good time to reassess the price of oil after the drop.  As noted 3 months ago wti 75 was a possibility but market seems capped at wti 73 for the technical resistance.

Be interesting to see how consumer demand is during this memorial day weekend with high gas prices at the pumps.

I’m chuckling here. You were quite bearish oil and Brent hit over $80 with WTI just under $73....in May!

Then, OPEC will at worst just decide to replace some lost Venezuelan production and the oil market will move to bull mode until the Fall. I expect $85 for Brent and up $78-80 for WTI in July.

bfw

Nope, still stuck to my original assessment, no way WTI is hitting 80$.  And I certainly wasn't bearish, I said 75$ was certainly possible and went in on BP.  I was just no where near as bullish as you and still ain't!  =)

g-man posted:
heh not saying they aren't legit,

but that sounds totally like a boiler room type of trade.

hopeuflly he's more correct than goldman predicting Brent @ 80$/barrel in the short term

Hey Gman,

Do you remember writing this a few short months ago

You do know that Brent hit over $80 right

Looks like Goldman had the last laugh on that prediction.

 

bfw

bfw posted:
g-man posted:
heh not saying they aren't legit,

but that sounds totally like a boiler room type of trade.

hopeuflly he's more correct than goldman predicting Brent @ 80$/barrel in the short term

Hey Gman,

Do you remember writing this a few short months ago

You do know that Brent hit over $80 right

Looks like Goldman had the last laugh on that prediction.

 

bfw

bfw posted:

"Perhaps Goldman is anticipating this with their recent call for Brent to hit $82."

The call from goldman was brent to hit 82.  It went an intraday of 80.5 like 3 days ago before promptly dropping and closing at 79.80, then took the next few days to hit 76.44 because as I've said, people are underestimating US production which I was spot on about.  Political tensions is what causes the recent run up and unfortunately I can't control the big orange idiot in office so I can only buy on the rumors and sell on the actual news in this market environment.

So I took BP from 41 and up fro the ride at 47, and sold as soon as I saw the US production numbers.

But Sir, I've been far more accurate on oil predictions than anything you've been saying so far =)

How's your blogger's trade idea working out right now?

Ok I just went back and re-read the Goldman report.  75$ Brent by may wasnspot on 82$ by august.  Okay it'd be interesting to see.  Opec got alot of guys in line but now said they're going to start increasing production again.  It would indeed be interesting to see if Brent does still have room to move upwards

Add Reply

Likes (0)
×
×
×
×