Skip to main content

quote:
Originally posted by ThistlinTom:
I'm curious, for those that play the market with all or part of your investments, do you track how you do with them relative to the general market and if so are you ahead or behind the market?

I used to do some stock picking, but now leave it up to my investment managers.


I have a mix of both.

if i have a investment manager, i expect them to keep pace/beat a passive index fund since I have a fairly aggressive risk stance and the fees arent the lowest.

for the stuff i do look at, well im strickly gambling.
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
Well, the analysts seem to be coming around on oil.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news...-bofa-s-blanch-video

Meanwhile, the equities have had a good week. They’ll be overbought short term but the trend is set for higher prices this summer.

I’ve just about finished rounding out my positions for the bull run.

Bfw


haha this guy again.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/201...oils-black-swan.html

"I think in 2017 june oils' going to be 75$ bla bla bla black swan"

one takes a look at oil charts in 2017 june? 44.45

nice call.


As with equities, they were oversold, strong earnings to start brought them back, but there seems to be noise as the later earnings seem to falter a little.

That would be them fairly efficiently priced. This market at this day is neither overbought nor oversold.
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
Well, the analysts seem to be coming around on oil.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news...-bofa-s-blanch-video

Meanwhile, the equities have had a good week. They’ll be overbought short term but the trend is set for higher prices this summer.

I’ve just about finished rounding out my positions for the bull run.

Bfw


haha this guy again.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/201...oils-black-swan.html

"I think in 2017 june oils' going to be 75$ bla bla bla black swan"

one takes a look at oil charts in 2017 june? 44.45

nice call.


As with equities, they were oversold, strong earnings to start brought them back, but there seems to be noise as the later earnings seem to falter a little.

That would be them fairly efficiently priced. This market at this day is neither overbought nor oversold.


The energy rotation from tech seems to be gathering steam as I figured.

BTE
CJ.TO
GTE
CPG

all with good gains over the last couple of weeks while the overall market has faltered.

bfw
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
After reviewing your oil company recommendations I did buy CPG and have made some dough on that one thanks


Good stuff! BTE has been the real outperformer lately as it appears heavy oil supplies are tight with the Venezuelan collapse.

I'm holding tight for now.

The other stock I keep buying is TH.to/THERF. The market is still clueless on them as I see their peak earnings at over $3 Canadian in a few years.

bfw
I wouldn't write off Baytex. It was really over-bought so needed a pullback.

BFW, I agree that CDN heavy oil is seeing an upsurge because of Venezuela, but not sure it's really benefiting BTE right now. Reading their Q1 report it's their Eagle Ford properties which are helping cash flow.

Their debt levels worry me still.

As for Crescent Point. I hold this dog. Last year I started to sell some for tax purposes and will continue to do so as needed. I hope management gets more than an earful today at their AGM, but not to the point of putting 4 Cation people on the board. 0.8% of the shares doesn't even come close to warrant that.
quote:
Originally posted by steve8:
I wouldn't write off Baytex. It was really over-bought so needed a pullback.

BFW, I agree that CDN heavy oil is seeing an upsurge because of Venezuela, but not sure it's really benefiting BTE right now. Reading their Q1 report it's their Eagle Ford properties which are helping cash flow.

Their debt levels worry me still.

As for Crescent Point. I hold this dog. Last year I started to sell some for tax purposes and will continue to do so as needed. I hope management gets more than an earful today at their AGM, but not to the point of putting 4 Cation people on the board. 0.8% of the shares doesn't even come close to warrant that.


Agreed.

BTE is up about 70% in a month and some are complaining of a 3.3% drop today?!?

Anyway, their heavy oil will benefit them big time going forward. Debt levels could easily be dealt with if oil prices continue up as I expect. They can always sell some Eagle Ford.

CPG is hated so will take longer to rise.

My TH.to/THERF broke out today on big volume to new highs. Should be more running room ahead Smile

Bfw
i made the safer bet and bought BP @ 39.

with an exit strategy at 46. I still can't see oil increasing yet another 15-20% from here (puts WTI @ ~ 80) but I could be wrong. High oil prices favor the big caps initially with the small caps to follow when oil gets REALLY high. But if you can see oil hitting another 15-20% rally, then by all means, the small caps mentioned would be good buys.

BP ~16% increase over a span of a month, happy to take profit and run.

might not get the big swings from the small caps, but at least i dont have to worry about 30% downside.
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
i made the safer bet and bought BP @ 39.

with an exit strategy at 46. I still can't see oil increasing yet another 15-20% from here (puts WTI @ ~ 80) but I could be wrong. High oil prices favor the big caps initially with the small caps to follow when oil gets REALLY high. But if you can see oil hitting another 15-20% rally, then by all means, the small caps mentioned would be good buys.

BP ~16% increase over a span of a month, happy to take profit and run.

might not get the big swings from the small caps, but at least i dont have to worry about 30% downside.


Glad you are making some money in the undervalued energy sector.

However, your statement about big vs small cap outperformance is not accurate given recent price action.

Typically, institutional money that wants some exposure to energy will hide out in the big names during a bear market. They will hide out in Suncor, Shell, BP etc.

Meanwhile, the overlevered small cap names such as a BTE will be shorted to oblivion.

Therein lies the opportunity once the bear flips.

Last month or so BTE is up 70% vs BP’s performance.

Bfw
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
I’m curious to know if you guys have BTE and if so did you sell it after that run?


Unfortunately, no. Up more than 5% today. I have owned it twice in the past and am watching it.

They will also benefit from a lower spread between WCS and WTI prices. The current $15 is much better than the almost $30 at one point in Q1.
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
After reviewing your oil company recommendations I did buy CPG and have made some dough on that one thanks


Good stuff! BTE has been the real outperformer lately as it appears heavy oil supplies are tight with the Venezuelan collapse.

I'm holding tight for now.

The other stock I keep buying is TH.to/THERF. The market is still clueless on them as I see their peak earnings at over $3 Canadian in a few years.

bfw



Oil continuing to gradually strengthen.

It will be a bumpy road but some are already calling for $100 Brent this year. I’m not quite that bullish but am happy to hold many oil equities.

TH.to/THERF is flying lately as I think the market is finally recognizing it. Plenty of room on the upside still IMHO.

Bfw
My pleasure. In full disclosure I have no system other than following it all day every day and getting a feeling for how it trades and the range. I look for a few days up or down in a row with it at or near a top/bottom of the range. Then I jump in for the bounce back taking a solid profit but not worrying about grabbing the last dollar. I claim no intelligence or skill. Im probably just lucky but I have managed to gain 25% on IRA YTD.
quote:
Originally posted by bomba503:
My pleasure. In full disclosure I have no system other than following it all day every day and getting a feeling for how it trades and the range. I look for a few days up or down in a row with it at or near a top/bottom of the range. Then I jump in for the bounce back taking a solid profit but not worrying about grabbing the last dollar. I claim no intelligence or skill. Im probably just lucky but I have managed to gain 25% on IRA YTD.


it's called "mean reversion" =)
I actually sold portions of BTE, CVE and CJ yesterday.

I thought oil might be getting extended short term.

Anyway, I ended up plowing all that money in to ATU.V as they made a transformational sale and are aggressively moving forward with drilling. (Altura Energy). I think this name will quadruple in 18 months.

Finally, my TH.to/THERF has been a big mover lately. Prescriptions for their new drug (Trogarzo) are exceeding expectations. I think TH.to could hit $30 in a year ($24 or so for THERF).

Bfw
g-man posted:

It's a good time to reassess the price of oil after the drop.  As noted 3 months ago wti 75 was a possibility but market seems capped at wti 73 for the technical resistance.

Be interesting to see how consumer demand is during this memorial day weekend with high gas prices at the pumps.

I’m chuckling here. You were quite bearish oil and Brent hit over $80 with WTI just under $73....in May!

Anyway, as posted here , I sold some chunks 10 days ago or so and it worked out well. I expect the OPEC jawboning gives the bears a chance to test $66 then $62 on WTI in the next few weeks prior to the OPEC meeting.

Then, OPEC will at worst just decide to replace some lost Venezuelan production and the oil market will move to bull mode until the Fall. I expect $85 for Brent and up $78-80 for WTI in July.

On another note, my TH.to/THERF closed at another all time high today. The market is beginning to comprehend their earnings power and my target is $30 Canadian next year so a double from here. First shares bought at 30 cents

 

bfw

bfw posted:
g-man posted:

It's a good time to reassess the price of oil after the drop.  As noted 3 months ago wti 75 was a possibility but market seems capped at wti 73 for the technical resistance.

Be interesting to see how consumer demand is during this memorial day weekend with high gas prices at the pumps.

I’m chuckling here. You were quite bearish oil and Brent hit over $80 with WTI just under $73....in May!

Then, OPEC will at worst just decide to replace some lost Venezuelan production and the oil market will move to bull mode until the Fall. I expect $85 for Brent and up $78-80 for WTI in July.

bfw

Nope, still stuck to my original assessment, no way WTI is hitting 80$.  And I certainly wasn't bearish, I said 75$ was certainly possible and went in on BP.  I was just no where near as bullish as you and still ain't!  =)

g-man posted:
heh not saying they aren't legit,

but that sounds totally like a boiler room type of trade.

hopeuflly he's more correct than goldman predicting Brent @ 80$/barrel in the short term

Hey Gman,

Do you remember writing this a few short months ago

You do know that Brent hit over $80 right

Looks like Goldman had the last laugh on that prediction.

 

bfw

bfw posted:
g-man posted:
heh not saying they aren't legit,

but that sounds totally like a boiler room type of trade.

hopeuflly he's more correct than goldman predicting Brent @ 80$/barrel in the short term

Hey Gman,

Do you remember writing this a few short months ago

You do know that Brent hit over $80 right

Looks like Goldman had the last laugh on that prediction.

 

bfw

bfw posted:

"Perhaps Goldman is anticipating this with their recent call for Brent to hit $82."

The call from goldman was brent to hit 82.  It went an intraday of 80.5 like 3 days ago before promptly dropping and closing at 79.80, then took the next few days to hit 76.44 because as I've said, people are underestimating US production which I was spot on about.  Political tensions is what causes the recent run up and unfortunately I can't control the big orange idiot in office so I can only buy on the rumors and sell on the actual news in this market environment.

So I took BP from 41 and up fro the ride at 47, and sold as soon as I saw the US production numbers.

But Sir, I've been far more accurate on oil predictions than anything you've been saying so far =)

How's your blogger's trade idea working out right now?

g-man posted:
bfw posted:
g-man posted:
heh not saying they aren't legit,

but that sounds totally like a boiler room type of trade.

hopeuflly he's more correct than goldman predicting Brent @ 80$/barrel in the short term

Hey Gman,

Do you remember writing this a few short months ago

You do know that Brent hit over $80 right

Looks like Goldman had the last laugh on that prediction.

 

bfw

bfw posted:

"Perhaps Goldman is anticipating this with their recent call for Brent to hit $82."

The call from goldman was brent to hit 82.  It went an intraday of 80.5 like 3 days ago before promptly dropping and closing at 79.80, then took the next few days to hit 76.44 because as I've said, people are underestimating US production which I was spot on about.  Political tensions is what causes the recent run up and unfortunately I can't control the big orange idiot in office so I can only buy on the rumors and sell on the actual news in this market environment.

So I took BP from 41 and up fro the ride at 47, and sold as soon as I saw the US production numbers.

But Sir, I've been far more accurate on oil predictions than anything you've been saying so far =)

How's your blogger's trade idea working out right now?

Gman,

41 to 47 on BP

Congrats lol. Check the charts on BTE, CJ.to (big yield as well) etc that I mentioned here in the last 8 weeks. Your pick underperformed badly. I’m glad you made cash but let’s be real. Your call on oil was wrong (you laughed at $80 Brent which was already hit in May!) and your choice of equity was  inferior.

As for THERF, my 5000% gain in the last few years is tough to beat.

As for VLE.to, I added some this past week. My average is well below $0.80 so I’m still doing ok there. It will likely drift until they start drilling again in the Fall. Erdogan’s politics are not helping. It was nice to see the CEO buying in the open market on Friday.

Finally, I figured you’d play the political angle with oil. The drop this past week was more to do with OPEC than US production. That being said, you may want to look up Midland/Permian WTI differentials and transport bottlenecks before you book huge US production increases from here.

So, I’m bearish short term on oil but bullish medium to long term.

 

 

 

bfw

 

that's not how advice works, you can't tell someone to look at a stock and when it loses money you say "oh I bought it at .80 cents"

that's like me telling you guys i had netflix at 15 dollars so it's okay that it drops a few % points.

Let's be real here.  Also we were talking about WTI for most of the time.  which hasnt anywhere near 80$ yet.

And how is BP, when i mentioned it back in April a underperformer?

14.6% gain in 4 weeks.

Brent is 9.5% over the same period?

There's a near .9 correlation between BP stock and oil?  

You seriously trade with alot of emotion.  

Gman,

I’ve got nothing further positive to say based on your past predictions, reality and stock picks. Therefore, I shall refrain from further comments.

As a final note, you may not want to reference someone as simply a “blogger” without researching their credentials...http://hydracapital.ca/hydra-partners.html.

bfw

Which one are you?

I don't mind  your suggestions, except you dont particular back up much of your commentary at times.  Like i mentioned, I dont mind hearing a different point of view, but your responses all sound like a boiler room sales pitch looking to sell the next penny stock.

As with credentials, I've been on the street for almost 20 years in various capacities.  I've actually worked at every large cap investment bank within the trading and risk areas except citibank.

Last edited by g-man
g-man posted:

Which one are you?

I don't mind  your suggestions, except you dont particular back up much of your commentary at times.  Like i mentioned, I dont mind hearing a different point of view, but your responses all sound like a boiler room sales pitch looking to sell the next penny stock.

As with credentials, I've been on the street for almost 20 years in various capacities.  I've actually worked at every large cap investment bank within the trading and risk areas except citibank.

Gman,

I am none of those individuals. Shaw is the fellow who recommended VLE.to to me many moons ago. His investment strategy is similar to mine. 

We look for asymmetric risk with significant upside and limited downside. This results in some bets being losses (small caps withering or ceasing to exist for example) and others growing significantly (VLE, THERF, numerous O&G takeovers etc).

The main premise is that as long as I can get 2 1000% gainers out of 10 investments, the other 8 don’t matter. I’ve been doing this for about 25 years and first started investing in the late 80s (my father was a broker and I vividly recall the 87 crash).

Lately, I’ve been working my way in to some PP’s and private investments. Energy has been an interest for me since 2008 fwiw.

So, basically, I’ll invest any time I think there is asymmetric risk. This is why I bought plenty of CJ.to when it was yielding around 10% because that yield was sustainable at WTI $47.

Anyway, that is my story as an individual investor who spends too much time on the markets

 

bfw

 

Certainly a very fair strategy and one that i take a punt on with some of my private investments i have too, 2 out of 10 is very very good, I'm no where near as lucky on these small caps.  My batting record on these private firms is like 1 out of 24 so far.  Little frustrating so you can imagine i've h eard quite alot of "optimistic" pitches in my time.

My experience has been trading derivatives, like credit default swaps.  my main area of focus was emerging markets/south america.  Other half of my career was looking at US government securities and municipal bonds.  So i've always been more of a numbers guy.

So pardon my general skepticism (that i do with wine too),it's just the way i do things =)

winetrooper posted:
For any biotech people, SGEN and NKTR are ripe for long term holds. I know a guy who works in that space and he feels strongly that SGEN and NKTR are takeout ripened and could be doubles this year or next. Both have impressive products in circulation and some income along with good pipelines.

I hope you got out of NKTR after it has that nice run.

It got smashed by over 40% today.

I guess these latest results call in to question their platform.

 

bfw

I did get out entirely after hearing their quarterly report and some uncertainty with data that they were preparing for ASCO.  They tried to spin it but I’ve learned that with bio you shouldn’t ever believe company spin because whether true or not they will be taken to the woodshed by the market at release of the actual info.  I dodged a bullet with pretty much a push.  If I would have gotten out at $110 that would’ve been wonderful but pigs get slaughtered.  I was a pig LOL.

winetrooper posted:

I did get out entirely after hearing their quarterly report and some uncertainty with data that they were preparing for ASCO.  They tried to spin it but I’ve learned that with bio you shouldn’t ever believe company spin because whether true or not they will be taken to the woodshed by the market at release of the actual info.  I dodged a bullet with pretty much a push.  If I would have gotten out at $110 that would’ve been wonderful but pigs get slaughtered.  I was a pig LOL.

Got lucky @101,

but in this market environment i'm not taking chances with holding, I'm taking profit and see just having patience to wait for the next one.  you never know when a random trigger might tank something.

It's been a wild ride this year. After the massive plunges in my portfolio in early February and mid-March, everything has rebounded and I'm up 6.5% on the year. I'll take it. Broadridge  (BR) has been the biggest winner (+37% since I bought it in November), but everything is up to some degree.

Like g-man suggests, I'm thinking I'll get out of certain positions soon and then buy back in during the next inevitable plummet.

bfw posted:
g-man posted:

Which one are you?

I don't mind  your suggestions, except you dont particular back up much of your commentary at times.  Like i mentioned, I dont mind hearing a different point of view, but your responses all sound like a boiler room sales pitch looking to sell the next penny stock.

As with credentials, I've been on the street for almost 20 years in various capacities.  I've actually worked at every large cap investment bank within the trading and risk areas except citibank.

Gman,

I am none of those individuals. Shaw is the fellow who recommended VLE.to to me many moons ago. His investment strategy is similar to mine. 

We look for asymmetric risk with significant upside and limited downside. This results in some bets being losses (small caps withering or ceasing to exist for example) and others growing significantly (VLE, THERF, numerous O&G takeovers etc).

The main premise is that as long as I can get 2 1000% gainers out of 10 investments, the other 8 don’t matter. I’ve been doing this for about 25 years and first started investing in the late 80s (my father was a broker and I vividly recall the 87 crash).

Lately, I’ve been working my way in to some PP’s and private investments. Energy has been an interest for me since 2008 fwiw.

So, basically, I’ll invest any time I think there is asymmetric risk. This is why I bought plenty of CJ.to when it was yielding around 10% because that yield was sustainable at WTI $47.

Anyway, that is my story as an individual investor who spends too much time on the markets

 

bfw

 

And here I thought you were Bill Washington for a second! I was going to remind him that public advice is a silly thing to do in our industry and he should know better. It's also why I don't post in this thread and just roll my eyes at half of it instead!

robsutherland posted:

And here I thought you were Bill Washington for a second! I was going to remind him that public advice is a silly thing to do in our industry and he should know better. It's also why I don't post in this thread and just roll my eyes at half of it instead!

who is bill washington??

heh, there's nothing wrong with the tips/suggestions, i personally find it incredibly helpful to branch out in other areas, but obviously do your own due diligence and dont gamble what you can't lose.  I've definitely been enlightened with ideas that i may not see that someone else brings to light so even if i disagree, i try not to ever poo poo any idea.  (not easy to maintain though).

 

As with the current market, I'm still of the mind you buy into the rumors and you sell into the news. Trump may start a trade war, but at the macro level (if you're doing only index) it's a good oppurtunity to get in short term and get out as soon as it pops.

I do feel inevitably, folks are going to have enough of this nonsense and then the bears will come on in force.  That'd be a frightening day.

g-man posted:
robsutherland posted:

And here I thought you were Bill Washington for a second! I was going to remind him that public advice is a silly thing to do in our industry and he should know better. It's also why I don't post in this thread and just roll my eyes at half of it instead!

who is bill washington??

heh, there's nothing wrong with the tips/suggestions, i personally find it incredibly helpful to branch out in other areas, but obviously do your own due diligence and dont gamble what you can't lose.  I've definitely been enlightened with ideas that i may not see that someone else brings to light so even if i disagree, i try not to ever poo poo any idea.  (not easy to maintain though).

 

Bill was the head of Mining investment Banking at National Bank Financial (and before that the head of investment banking at a boutique called Wellington West). I used to work at NBF and he's well known in Toronto. 

Ok, as promised, I’d look at turning bullish on oil after OPEC.

Well, I’m now bullish again.

Despite OPEC pledging to bring some supply back on, oil prices rallied nicely today as the market is and will be in an undersupplied situation.

Meanwhile, Permian producers are starting to run up against infrastructure restrictions (pipelines).

My picks are still pretty much the same...CJ.TO (still a great yield), CPG.TO (so beaten up) and BTE (market hated their deal but its ok long term). I was fortunate to sell most of my BTE position 6 weeks ago as I did not see that merger happening. I added some back in the past week.

Finally, I mentioned DNR previously and it has been a star...

In any respect, a rising tide should lift all boats unless Trump unleashes an SPR tsunami.

Bfw

 

 

bfw posted:

Ok, as promised, I’d look at turning bullish on oil after OPEC.

Well, I’m now bullish again.

Despite OPEC pledging to bring some supply back on, oil prices rallied nicely today as the market is and will be in an undersupplied situation.

Meanwhile, Permian producers are starting to run up against infrastructure restrictions (pipelines).

My picks are still pretty much the same...CJ.TO (still a great yield), CPG.TO (so beaten up) and BTE (market hated their deal but its ok long term). I was fortunate to sell most of my BTE position 6 weeks ago as I did not see that merger happening. I added some back in the past week.

Finally, I mentioned DNR previously and it has been a star...

In any respect, a rising tide should lift all boats unless Trump unleashes an SPR tsunami.

Bfw

 

 

Bought oilnf at weekly bottom and very happy today.  Great swing.  

wineart 2 posted:

Looks like Dell will go public. 

Yeah I saw that. Last I heard the recent tax law changes from our POTUS really put a wrinkle in Dell's financial plans from the EMC acquisition. That and their storage hardware portfolio is the weakest it's been in 20 years.  Unrelated to Dell, but won't pass on putting a dig into our fearless leader, another technology company went belly up last week (Tintri). Stock was being crushed as it was, but two CEO's bailed within 90 days of each other. Nail in the coffin was behind the scenes Lenovo was going to come in and purchase them up averting bankruptcy. The deal was scrapped by the Chinese govt in retaliation to our ongoing trade war. Have several friends now looking for employment. 

Oh and sold my Canadian pot stocks last week. Worked out well. 

Last edited by snipes
winetrooper posted:

Looks like they are calling for oil to go through the roof If a bunch of things come together. The volatility here though can make for some great swing trading....gman.

Indeed, the oil take is interesting.  Huge news a bout the  state dept looking to cut irans production to nearly 0.  Trump is asking the saudis to increase, but i'd be surprised if they listen.  Venezuela isnt coming online any time soon.  

I'm feeling it at the pump after driving to and from canada.

Yes, I had the terminology wrong. You are correct.

But, they got another 5.1 million subscribers.  Let's say each subscriber pays $100 per year.  So that is $510 million in additional revenue.  That's not chump change.  Plus, their earnings were higher than expected. 85 cents per share vs. the predicted 79 cents per share.

I love the company.  They have only 3200 employees! 

 

irwin posted:

Yes, I had the terminology wrong. You are correct.

But, they got another 5.1 million subscribers.  Let's say each subscriber pays $100 per year.  So that is $510 million in additional revenue.  That's not chump change.  Plus, their earnings were higher than expected. 85 cents per share vs. the predicted 79 cents per share.

I love the company.  They have only 3200 employees! 

 

but they need to spend 7-8 billion on new shows =)  to quote "That's not chump change" 

g-man posted:
irwin posted:

Yes, I had the terminology wrong. You are correct.

But, they got another 5.1 million subscribers.  Let's say each subscriber pays $100 per year.  So that is $510 million in additional revenue.  That's not chump change.  Plus, their earnings were higher than expected. 85 cents per share vs. the predicted 79 cents per share.

I love the company.  They have only 3200 employees! 

 

but they need to spend 7-8 billion on new shows =)  to quote "That's not chump change" 

They now have about 130 million subscribers to the streaming service.  Assume each one pays $100 per year.  That would be $13,000,000,000 in annual income. (13 Billion).  I did see that they now have 4800 employees.  The current letter to shareholders says, "We are making good progress with our original feature films."  If you are going to make progress, "good progress" is the best kind!

Got out of ICPT and waiting for a pullback as it has had a huge run up.  Problem is that it will have a market cap 3-4 x its current one once their drug results come out due to first-to-market status.  They might not get that far before being bought out and I really don’t want to be out when that happens.  The drug *supposedly* has a fairly “easy” phase III hurdle to get over based on changes made to the study expectations by the FDA.  You never know.  It is a buy on a pullback to $85 for me.  Current support is around $92.50 on this recent plateau, but if it starts moving again, the sky is the limit from here (not much resistance).

Also hoping for a small position in VLE.TO (PNWRF for OTC Americans like me) to blast off this winter as another poster on here has hoped.  Success there is probably a 10-20 bagger which is why it is probably a small position I’ll never see again LOL.

robsutherland posted:

Apparently the stocks I like are the best stocks! I just won the Starmine/Thomson Reuters award for Best Stock Picker in my sector!

Yes I am ABSOLUTELY tooting my own horn. 

Congrats! One of my clients was the founder of Starmine and sold out to Thomsen. Needless to say he's comfortably retired and enjoying the wines in the cellar he built

I just bought some Invesque (TSX:IVQ.u) which is paying a 10.6% dividend with a low 70%'s payout ratio and is trading about 35-40% below NAV. Great platform and assets, the last iteration of the company (same management, different assets) was taken out at a massive premium by a US player and after the non-compete ended they've just done the same thing again. It can only trade this far below intrinsic for so long before something happens. 

Looks?  It's already in correction territory.  

Tho amusingly folks talk about how the 1966-1982 period in the market may never happen again.

We are now in similar phase of the market cycle.  1960-1965 saw very very h ealth gains in the market, then it stagnated for the next 16 or so year while struggling with insane amount of inflation.

Will it happen again?  No idea, but i do know for a mature market you don't pump more money and add to the deficit when the economy is good.

https://research.stlouisfed.or...and-lessons-learned/

Expansionary monetary policy brought on by massive tax cuts when times are good and natural unemployment at decades low.

Funny that the roles are now reversed and the fed is looking at this thinking the 70s might come back again where inflation starts sitting at all time highs.

You can only see why the Fed is hesitant to pause on the interest rate hikes.

However the Fed is not free of blame, t hey forget the second part of the lesson where price stability is first and foremost the most important thing for price stability, which leads to consumer confidence.

But just piss poor management all around during this administration.

I hope someone will realize that the US is not an episode of the apprentice, but i'm not holding my breath

Last edited by g-man

Brutal week.  And I won't be surprised if the freefall continues until trade issues with China are at least somewhat resolved.  Could be months, and a probable dive into bear territory. 

On the optimistic side, I picked up some RYU ('Respect Your Universe''), an athleisure clothing biz that looks alot like Lululemon in its early days. Seems to have a loyal and growing fan base, cool stores in hip shoppping districts and what the heck - it's 0.12 a share. 

vint posted:

Brutal week.  And I won't be surprised if the freefall continues until trade issues with China are at least somewhat resolved.  Could be months, and a probable dive into bear territory. 

On the optimistic side, I picked up some RYU ('Respect Your Universe''), an athleisure clothing biz that looks alot like Lululemon in its early days. Seems to have a loyal and growing fan base, cool stores in hip shoppping districts and what the heck - it's 0.12 a share. 

Brutal year overall. Market at a 13 month low. 

Where is the orange dump?

Ah, there's no causative effective between investment of assets to infllation.  There may be a coincidental correlation but i wouldn't use it to gamble on.  In essence, me and you taking our cash out and stuffing it under our matress is different then when the central banks around the world go doing the same thing.

The shrinking of hte money supply, usually leads to a deflationary scenario since there's less money going around, thereby making it worth more.  This causes asset classes to fall against the value of money since money's now worth more.

Heavy inflation comes from big governmetn deficits and huge spendings where the US just starts issuing more and more debt.  It gets exacerbated when we have a huge debt and go into recession, causing the central bank to be accommodative.   (roughly simplistic, but it's the gist of it!)

in the current market, I don't like much.  When Pres. Trump took office, the DOW was around 19,800.  It got up to 24,800 in one year (by 1/1/18).  Since then, it hasn't done much, and these tariffs are killing companies and will kill consumers.  It's about 25,150 as I write this on May 29, 2019.  So, since the beginning of 2018, it is only up 350 points or so.  Negligible. 

I got out of BYND back on the 17th. I was in for 5 days and a 35% profit. It sank like a stone immediately after that.  But in the past two days it's shot up 30+% based on some news about building a European manufacturing plant. 

Talk about volatile. You can't time the market, but this seems to have been an easy one to do some quick in-and-out trading and make substantial returns. I expect it'll sink again soon.

Every year in the US around 30-50,000 people die of the flu.  We have a shot for the flu, which alot of people get, and some don't, and which isn't totally effective. The people most vulnerable are the elderly and otherwise infirm.  The symptoms are not that dissimilar to the symptoms associated with the Coronavirus.  The advice at the beginning of flu season is to stay home if you get it, drink alot of fluids, take tylenol to bring down a temperature if you have one, and rest.  Probably it's a good idea to wash your hands alot during flu season so you decrease the chances of getting it, and to avoid people who are sneezing and coughing.

So far, a couple dozen have died in the US from this new virus. A number of them were in a nursing home in Washington, and I presume were infirm. 

Despite the many flu deaths annually, the stock market doesn't freak, and the advice to avoid cruise ships and to have sports events with no fans in the stands doesn't happen.

Now, they say that around 2.5 or 3% of people who get coronavirus die because of it, and I don't know how that stands against the regular flu.  And, I'm not sure how they figure that out, because lots of people, apparently, are tested for the coronavirus due to exposure to someone else, test positive, and are asymptomatic.  Thus, I assume there are others out there who would test positive and are asymptomatic.

It's rather confusing to me.

 

irwin posted:

Every year in the US around 30-50,000 people die of the flu.  We have a shot for the flu, which alot of people get, and some don't, and which isn't totally effective. The people most vulnerable are the elderly and otherwise infirm.  The symptoms are not that dissimilar to the symptoms associated with the Coronavirus.  The advice at the beginning of flu season is to stay home if you get it, drink alot of fluids, take tylenol to bring down a temperature if you have one, and rest.  Probably it's a good idea to wash your hands alot during flu season so you decrease the chances of getting it, and to avoid people who are sneezing and coughing.

So far, a couple dozen have died in the US from this new virus. A number of them were in a nursing home in Washington, and I presume were infirm. 

Despite the many flu deaths annually, the stock market doesn't freak, and the advice to avoid cruise ships and to have sports events with no fans in the stands doesn't happen.

Now, they say that around 2.5 or 3% of people who get coronavirus die because of it, and I don't know how that stands against the regular flu.  And, I'm not sure how they figure that out, because lots of people, apparently, are tested for the coronavirus due to exposure to someone else, test positive, and are asymptomatic.  Thus, I assume there are others out there who would test positive and are asymptomatic.

It's rather confusing to me.

 

It's pretty straightforward. The Flu has a death rate of about 0.1% with about 1% of all Flu sufferers needing hospital care.

COVID-19 has at least 14% being "Severe" and needing hospital care and just under 5%  "exhibiting respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure". In other words 5% of people getting it even if they don't die will be affected in some way for probably the rest of their life.  

Mortality rate is between 2-3% of all cases. That is exceptionally weighted to older sufferers with people over 70 with a nearly 10% mortality rate and over 80 years old with a 15% mortality rate. 

The Flu has a R0 of about 1.3 which means that each person that has the Flu infects 1.3 other people. COVID-19 has an R0 of between 2-3. So it's roughly twice as contagious as the normal Flu. 

According to the CDC in this Flu season in the US there have been 34 million illnesses, 350,000 hospitalizations and 20,000 deaths, Put into COVID-19 terms that could be about 65 million people getting it, 9 million in the hospital because of it, 3 million with respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure because of it and 1.5 million dying of it. 

That's why it's a big deal. 

 

robsutherland posted:
irwin posted:

Every year in the US around 30-50,000 people die of the flu.  We have a shot for the flu, which alot of people get, and some don't, and which isn't totally effective. The people most vulnerable are the elderly and otherwise infirm.  The symptoms are not that dissimilar to the symptoms associated with the Coronavirus.  The advice at the beginning of flu season is to stay home if you get it, drink alot of fluids, take tylenol to bring down a temperature if you have one, and rest.  Probably it's a good idea to wash your hands alot during flu season so you decrease the chances of getting it, and to avoid people who are sneezing and coughing.

So far, a couple dozen have died in the US from this new virus. A number of them were in a nursing home in Washington, and I presume were infirm. 

Despite the many flu deaths annually, the stock market doesn't freak, and the advice to avoid cruise ships and to have sports events with no fans in the stands doesn't happen.

Now, they say that around 2.5 or 3% of people who get coronavirus die because of it, and I don't know how that stands against the regular flu.  And, I'm not sure how they figure that out, because lots of people, apparently, are tested for the coronavirus due to exposure to someone else, test positive, and are asymptomatic.  Thus, I assume there are others out there who would test positive and are asymptomatic.

It's rather confusing to me.

 

It's pretty straightforward. The Flu has a death rate of about 0.1% with about 1% of all Flu sufferers needing hospital care.

COVID-19 has at least 14% being "Severe" and needing hospital care and just under 5%  "exhibiting respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure". In other words 5% of people getting it even if they don't die will be affected in some way for probably the rest of their life.  

Mortality rate is between 2-3% of all cases. That is exceptionally weighted to older sufferers with people over 70 with a nearly 10% mortality rate and over 80 years old with a 15% mortality rate. 

The Flu has a R0 of about 1.3 which means that each person that has the Flu infects 1.3 other people. COVID-19 has an R0 of between 2-3. So it's roughly twice as contagious as the normal Flu. 

According to the CDC in this Flu season in the US there have been 34 million illnesses, 350,000 hospitalizations and 20,000 deaths, Put into COVID-19 terms that could be about 65 million people getting it, 9 million in the hospital because of it, 3 million with respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure because of it and 1.5 million dying of it. 

That's why it's a big deal. 

Except that not everyone is being tested for COVID-19. We have no idea how many people are sitting at home with flu-like symptoms and haven't reported it. In which case, the mortality rate could be lower than what the CDC is reporting.

I'm not denying that it's a big deal, but the 2-3% mortality rate could be lower than that. Whether it's by a little or a lot, we don't know.

I don't think anyone has questioned it's at least an order of magnitude greater than dying of the flu. (That's a lot.) In addition I can vaccinate myself against the flu with various rates of success, but better than nothing. Even if I get the flu the vaccine often reduces the severity of it. Also I have the Tamiflu option. None of this is true of the Coronavirus.

Did you know the Idiot in Chief, on Friday, talked about how his greatness caused the biggest one day rally in Wall Street history? Did you know he joked about holding press conferences five times a day to help the market? Did you know he sent some of his supporters (chumps) signed charts showing the gain? (Hope you got one Nappy.) Now again the market's in free fall. Will the Grifter in Chief take responsibility? When sexist pigs fly.

irwin posted:

Every year in the US around 30-50,000 people die of the flu.  We have a shot for the flu, which alot of people get, and some don't, and which isn't totally effective. The people most vulnerable are the elderly and otherwise infirm.  The symptoms are not that dissimilar to the symptoms associated with the Coronavirus.  The advice at the beginning of flu season is to stay home if you get it, drink alot of fluids, take tylenol to bring down a temperature if you have one, and rest.  Probably it's a good idea to wash your hands alot during flu season so you decrease the chances of getting it, and to avoid people who are sneezing and coughing.

So far, a couple dozen have died in the US from this new virus. A number of them were in a nursing home in Washington, and I presume were infirm. 

Despite the many flu deaths annually, the stock market doesn't freak, and the advice to avoid cruise ships and to have sports events with no fans in the stands doesn't happen.

Now, they say that around 2.5 or 3% of people who get coronavirus die because of it, and I don't know how that stands against the regular flu.  And, I'm not sure how they figure that out, because lots of people, apparently, are tested for the coronavirus due to exposure to someone else, test positive, and are asymptomatic.  Thus, I assume there are others out there who would test positive and are asymptomatic.

It's rather confusing to me.

 

As the test for coronavirus Becomes more widely used the numerator will be much larger than the denominator ( death) Therefore the lethality rate will be lower than advertised https://forums.winespectator.c...01#10611126027138101

redknife posted:
irwin posted:

Every year in the US around 30-50,000 people die of the flu.  We have a shot for the flu, which alot of people get, and some don't, and which isn't totally effective. The people most vulnerable are the elderly and otherwise infirm.  The symptoms are not that dissimilar to the symptoms associated with the Coronavirus.  The advice at the beginning of flu season is to stay home if you get it, drink alot of fluids, take tylenol to bring down a temperature if you have one, and rest.  Probably it's a good idea to wash your hands alot during flu season so you decrease the chances of getting it, and to avoid people who are sneezing and coughing.

So far, a couple dozen have died in the US from this new virus. A number of them were in a nursing home in Washington, and I presume were infirm. 

Despite the many flu deaths annually, the stock market doesn't freak, and the advice to avoid cruise ships and to have sports events with no fans in the stands doesn't happen.

Now, they say that around 2.5 or 3% of people who get coronavirus die because of it, and I don't know how that stands against the regular flu.  And, I'm not sure how they figure that out, because lots of people, apparently, are tested for the coronavirus due to exposure to someone else, test positive, and are asymptomatic.  Thus, I assume there are others out there who would test positive and are asymptomatic.

It's rather confusing to me.

 

As the test for coronavirus Becomes more widely used the numerator will be much larger than the denominator ( death) Therefore the lethality rate will be lower than advertised https://forums.winespectator.c...01#10611126027138101

Backwards, or upside down.    The numerator is deaths; denominator is confirmed cases.  If confirmed cases increased, that deaths do not (or at a slower rate), the mortality rate goes down.  On March 12, there were 38 death and 1323 confirmed cases in the US  = 2.8% mortality.

Today, 285 deaths and 24,148 confirmed cases (what a difference only 10 days makes) = 1.2% mortality.

bomba503 posted:

Just bought some ABBV at $76 for my long term hold portfolio. Dividend is 6% at that price and I believe more secure as it's Rx stock.

I was looking at ABBV.  It's a bit pricey (but slipping),  Humira is not their cash-cow anymore. 

Are you (or anyone else here) looking at other pharma, such as MRNA, NVAX, INO?