Not to mention their market ios selling leads to Realtors who increasingly are learning they are extremely poor quality but are buying them out of fear that other agents will gain a bigger profile in the market. Right now real estate is super heated in most markets but as soon as things slow down the agents willingness to spend will also. Maybe a decent short momentum play but longer term I think they will have issues.
I'm getting nervous.

The market is getting tired of waiting for tax reform legislation and clearly healthcare reform is dead.

The assumption of both houses being controlled by one party with an independent president being able to get things done is fading fast.
quote:
Originally posted by VinT:
quote:
Originally posted by Shane T.:
quote:
Originally posted by VinT:
Equifax Wink


The Bigger Short...

To quote someone who's been reasonably successful at this stock market thing,

"Be greedy when others are fearful".


you're acutally going to go long equifax?
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by VinT:
quote:
Originally posted by Shane T.:
quote:
Originally posted by VinT:
Equifax Wink


The Bigger Short...

To quote someone who's been reasonably successful at this stock market thing,

"Be greedy when others are fearful".


you're acutally going to go long equifax?

got in under $93.
quote:
Originally posted by Italian Wino:
My stake in Canadian weed company Canopy Growth just got a major surge in the arm with Fortune 500 company Constellation taking a 10% stake in the company. Stock is up 25+ percent in the last 2 days.

IW

Our Analyst just went from a $10.50/Buy target to a $13.00/Hold.
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
Why do you guys only give these brilliant recommendations to the rest of us after they go up 35%?

You could have at least shared CJ and WEED when they were worth $5 less per share. Smile


LOL...Weed has been on fire. I made 10 times my money on it the first time around but it has gone past that high now and I don’t ownFrown

As for CJ, I bought more the last few days. With oil at $57, they have a divvy that is fully sustainable and they can grow. In fact, the last time oil was this high, CJ was over $10 Canadian.

Other levered names in oil include BTE/CPG/CVE etc. If this is the dawn of a new bull, these have a long way to go!

A great tweet out there...

Energy Sector share of total mkt cap: 1/20/16 = 5.5%...Brent = $26. Energy Sector share of total mkt cap: today = 5.5%...Brent = $64.

Bfw
quote:
Originally posted by Rob_Sutherland:
quote:
Originally posted by Italian Wino:
My stake in Canadian weed company Canopy Growth just got a major surge in the arm with Fortune 500 company Constellation taking a 10% stake in the company. Stock is up 25+ percent in the last 2 days.

IW

Our Analyst just went from a $10.50/Buy target to a $13.00/Hold.


Looks like your analyst is wrong on this name and should just suspend coverage!

Bfw
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
LOL...Weed has been on fire. I made 10 times my money on it the first time around but it has gone past that high now and I don’t ownFrown

Bfw


July 29, 2016: $3.15 (chart starts here - IPO date?)
Nov. 2, 2017: $19.37 (new high - no pun intended)

How can you claim 10x return (now or any point in between)? Just looking at the 5 yr chart. What am I missing?
quote:
Originally posted by KSC02:
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
LOL...Weed has been on fire. I made 10 times my money on it the first time around but it has gone past that high now and I don’t ownFrown

Bfw


July 29, 2016: $3.15 (chart starts here - IPO date?)
Nov. 2, 2017: $19.37 (new high - no pun intended)

How can you claim 10x return (now or any point in between)? Just looking at the 5 yr chart. What am I missing?


always buying weed (weed.to)
always buying AMZN - they appear to be unstoppable
quote:
Originally posted by KSC02:
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
LOL...Weed has been on fire. I made 10 times my money on it the first time around but it has gone past that high now and I don’t ownFrown

Bfw


July 29, 2016: $3.15 (chart starts here - IPO date?)
Nov. 2, 2017: $19.37 (new high - no pun intended)

How can you claim 10x return (now or any point in between)? Just looking at the 5 yr chart. What am I missing?


Plenty.

“Canopy first went public with an initial offering in 2010 and traded on TMX Group's junior Venture Exchange. The stock will transfer to the senior exchange and begin trading there on July 26, the company said.”

I bought Canopy way back at $1.50 when it was on the Venture exchange. I sold about a year ago just over $15.

Any more questions?

Bfw
quote:
Originally posted by bates40:
quote:
Originally posted by KSC02:
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
LOL...Weed has been on fire. I made 10 times my money on it the first time around but it has gone past that high now and I don’t ownFrown

Bfw


July 29, 2016: $3.15 (chart starts here - IPO date?)
Nov. 2, 2017: $19.37 (new high - no pun intended)

How can you claim 10x return (now or any point in between)? Just looking at the 5 yr chart. What am I missing?


always buying weed (weed.to)
always buying AMZN - they appear to be unstoppable


These weed stocks continue to be nuts.

I bought an unknown weed stock HEMP.V a year or so ago. It did nothing but go down...all the way to 28 cents this year.

Suddenly over the last month or so, it starts getting bought up and hits $2.96 today!
Up over 100% today alone at one point.

Anyway, I sold 40% of my position today....I’ll let the rest continue in the bubble.

Bfw
quote:
Originally posted by wine+art:
GE cuts their dividend ( by half) for only the second time since the Great Depression.

The days of GE, IBM and other gold standards are simply no more.


I've been holding some GE stock for more than a decade. It's well below what I paid for it. Frown
Have any of you jumped into BTC or ETH yet? I set up a Coinbase account but was a bit put off by the transaction fees. Was planning on buying 2 BTC @ 5k and selling one once it doubled. While waiting for a pullback to my target it never came and now it’s nearly doubled. (Never mind I had set up a wallet 7 years ago but never bought any *facepalm*).

It’s clearly a mania now. But there’s still the potential for some gambling profit. If I do I’ll stick with the same plan, cover the initial outlay ASAP then letting it ride until the mortgage is paid.
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
VLE.to - Valeura Energy
PNWRF in US

A spec play of mine that is on the cusp of proving up a huge gas find in energy needy Turkey.

Tripled last week Smile but has a lot more room to run if the flow results continue to impress.

Bfw

bfw, good for you getting in early, but FWIW, it looks to me like a classic pump n' dump.
quote:
Originally posted by VinT:
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
VLE.to - Valeura Energy
PNWRF in US

A spec play of mine that is on the cusp of proving up a huge gas find in energy needy Turkey.

Tripled last week Smile but has a lot more room to run if the flow results continue to impress.

Bfw

bfw, good for you getting in early, but FWIW, it looks to me like a classic pump n' dump.


insert any wildcat energy company.
quote:
Originally posted by indybob:
quote:
Originally posted by finz:
Have any of you jumped into BTC yet?


Nnnnnope. Way too risky for my bones. Fake money that governments have no use for and can't collect taxes from? No thanks.

Good luck if you've picked some up.


I don't get it and why people are buying it. Seems like pure speculation with a likely popping of a bubble, like investing in tulips.
Bitcoin futures start trading on the CBOE at 6PM ET tonight. I think a lot of the run up in the last week is tied to this as a sign of investment legitimacy. You can now trade without actually having a digital wallet. On the flip side, it opens up the ability to bet on downward moves. Some believe the latter will destroy the price. We'll see. Currently at $15,115 as I type this. Many brokers are not allowing retail trades at all or no short positions and 50% margins.
quote:
Originally posted by vinole:
Bitcoin futures start trading on the CBOE at 6PM ET tonight. I think a lot of the run up in the last week is tied to this as a sign of investment legitimacy. You can now trade without actually having a digital wallet. On the flip side, it opens up the ability to bet on downward moves. Some believe the latter will destroy the price. We'll see. Currently at $15,115 as I type this. Many brokers are not allowing retail trades at all or no short positions and 50% margins.


as you can't "borrow" a bit coin,

by definition, all bit coin contracts will technically be "naked shorts" which is a big SEC nono.

Brokers will be very hestitant to hold bitcoins in their own pockets to cover borrowing and shorts for their clients.

as such, you probably need to be an accredited investor to trade bit coin on the CBOE and then find a broker to do the trade with.
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by vinole:
Bitcoin futures start trading on the CBOE at 6PM ET tonight. I think a lot of the run up in the last week is tied to this as a sign of investment legitimacy. You can now trade without actually having a digital wallet. On the flip side, it opens up the ability to bet on downward moves. Some believe the latter will destroy the price. We'll see. Currently at $15,115 as I type this. Many brokers are not allowing retail trades at all or no short positions and 50% margins.


as you can't "borrow" a bit coin,

by definition, all bit coin contracts will technically be "naked shorts" which is a big SEC nono.

Brokers will be very hestitant to hold bitcoins in their own pockets to cover borrowing and shorts for their clients.

as such, you probably need to be an accredited investor to trade bit coin on the CBOE and then find a broker to do the trade with.


brain fart

cboe is futures.
quote:
Originally posted by spo:
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
crypto currencies are the future!!!

everyone buy more!!

heh even more shocking is that folks dont know what the word "fork" means.


What do you like for buying/storing? GDAX?


how much money we talking about here? ;-)

gdax/kraken/bithumb are the big ones with the most liquidity.
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:


how much money we talking about here? ;-)

.


I just wanted to know where you were putting all those dogecoins Razz

To be honest I am just now starting to think about and look into this and may consider some money I could part with. I'll look at Kraken and Bithumb. Thanks.
quote:
Originally posted by spo:
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:


how much money we talking about here? ;-)

.


I just wanted to know where you were putting all those dogecoins Razz

To be honest I am just now starting to think about and look into this and may consider some money I could part with. I'll look at Kraken and Bithumb. Thanks.


fool and his gold =)

i dont think the retail player like me has enough money to really make it riskless.

also alot of these exchanges have max withdrawal limits.
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by spo:
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:


how much money we talking about here? ;-)

.


I just wanted to know where you were putting all those dogecoins Razz

To be honest I am just now starting to think about and look into this and may consider some money I could part with. I'll look at Kraken and Bithumb. Thanks.


fool and his gold =)

i dont think the retail player like me has enough money to really make it riskless.

also alot of these exchanges have max withdrawal limits.


Mark Cuban was talking about putting 10% of income into cryptocurrencies but then he said whatever money you put into cryptocurrency you should think of it like you already lost it. Big Grin
quote:
Originally posted by VinT:
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
VLE.to - Valeura Energy
PNWRF in US

A spec play of mine that is on the cusp of proving up a huge gas find in energy needy Turkey.

Tripled last week Smile but has a lot more room to run if the flow results continue to impress.

Bfw

bfw, good for you getting in early, but FWIW, it looks to me like a classic pump n' dump.


Why do you think that?

Experienced management partnered with a major oil corp (Statoil).

That sounds like the opposite of a pump and dump.

Anyway, more good news out of them this am and the stock continues to hit new highs!

Bfw
quote:
Originally posted by Italian Wino:
Canopy Growth hit a new high today in the mid US$18s. I am up 260% in 125 days. I think it will be above $30 before Canada legalizes in July 2018.

IW


Smile
I also invested in these guys a couple months back. Will probably reup again after the new year and before July.
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
quote:
Originally posted by VinT:
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
VLE.to - Valeura Energy
PNWRF in US

A spec play of mine that is on the cusp of proving up a huge gas find in energy needy Turkey.

Tripled last week Smile but has a lot more room to run if the flow results continue to impress.

Bfw

bfw, good for you getting in early, but FWIW, it looks to me like a classic pump n' dump.


Why do you think that?

Experienced management partnered with a major oil corp (Statoil).

That sounds like the opposite of a pump and dump.

Anyway, more good news out of them this am and the stock continues to hit new highs!

Bfw


It continues to print new highs.

I’m sitting on an 8 bagger (800% in a couple months) now with my first purchases at 40 cents.

I’ve added a few more these last 3 weeks as the well results derisked the play.

Looking for $7 by the end of January when everyone finds out how big the resource is (they promise to have the report out by then).

Bfw
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
quote:
Originally posted by VinT:
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
VLE.to - Valeura Energy
PNWRF in US

A spec play of mine that is on the cusp of proving up a huge gas find in energy needy Turkey.

Tripled last week Smile but has a lot more room to run if the flow results continue to impress.

Bfw

bfw, good for you getting in early, but FWIW, it looks to me like a classic pump n' dump.


Why do you think that?

Experienced management partnered with a major oil corp (Statoil).

That sounds like the opposite of a pump and dump.

Anyway, more good news out of them this am and the stock continues to hit new highs!

Bfw


It continues to print new highs.

I’m sitting on an 8 bagger (800% in a couple months) now with my first purchases at 40 cents.

I’ve added a few more these last 3 weeks as the well results derisked the play.

Looking for $7 by the end of January when everyone finds out how big the resource is (they promise to have the report out by then).

Bfw


Well now over a 10 bagger this year alone.

Still think it has plenty left in the tank but there is bound to be some kind of pullback at some point.

Bfw
quote:
Originally posted by Italian Wino:
Canopy continues its trajectory. Now I am up 302% to US$21.13. Also up big on Aphria. 282% gain in 4 months.

IW


I got out of Canadian MJ stocks recently. I think they are getting overvalued.

I did buy some LDS.C though. It’s hitting new highs.

The California market for marijuana will be bigger than the whole Canadian market. LDS fits the bill as one company with permits in place to start serving it.

Bfw
quote:
Originally posted by sunnylea57:
Bejeebus! Canopy is up over 10% today alone. Now at just shy of $36 CAD.


A colleague inquired about shorting Canopy today.

There were no shares available to short! They had all been spoken for.

So...big short squeeze of late I imagine.

Bfw
Bought GPRO this morning after it dropped on big earnings miss, layoffs and discontinuation of drone business. Figured the arrogant majority owner was finally ready to admit defeat and put company up for sale. An hour later he announced company is up for sale. Better to be lucky than smartSmile
quote:
Originally posted by snipes:
quote:
Originally posted by Italian Wino:
Canopy at US$31 today.

IW


Crazy huh? Up 17% just today. Makes me wonder how crazy it will continue to get over the next six months if nothing changes with the legalization expectation.


one could argue, that if you were very keen on legalization taht the best bets would be the big boys like RJ Reynolds or Altria.

cuz once the sleeping giant comes around...
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by snipes:
quote:
Originally posted by Italian Wino:
Canopy at US$31 today.

IW


Crazy huh? Up 17% just today. Makes me wonder how crazy it will continue to get over the next six months if nothing changes with the legalization expectation.


one could argue, that if you were very keen on legalization taht the best bets would be the big boys like RJ Reynolds or Altria.

cuz once the sleeping giant comes around...


I agree with you g-man in a sense. When I saw Constellation brands purchase a 10% position in Canopy that's when I put my $ where my mouth is. No idea what RJ's Canadian tobacco plantations look like and whether they would retool, but American pot investment vs. Canadian are two different animals IMO and Sessions proved that again last week.
quote:
Originally posted by snipes:
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by snipes:
quote:
Originally posted by Italian Wino:
Canopy at US$31 today.

IW


Crazy huh? Up 17% just today. Makes me wonder how crazy it will continue to get over the next six months if nothing changes with the legalization expectation.


one could argue, that if you were very keen on legalization taht the best bets would be the big boys like RJ Reynolds or Altria.

cuz once the sleeping giant comes around...


I agree with you g-man in a sense. When I saw Constellation brands purchase a 10% position in Canopy that's when I put my $ where my mouth is. No idea what RJ's Canadian tobacco plantations look like and whether they would retool, but American pot investment vs. Canadian are two different animals IMO and Sessions proved that again last week.


well there's also a matter of one country being 18x richer ;-)
Thanks for the tip on PNWRF. I did buy a smidge and it is starting to perk up again.

I’ve done fantastic the past two months on AMZN (which I plan to hold until the economy shows signs of turning over), BOTZ, and NVDA, as well as swing trading pot stocks as they gyrate with the uncertainty here.

Really wanted to go long on OIL etf after successfully swing trading it the past two years as it moved in a channel, but now it shows no sign of correcting and is up and to the right. For that reason, I’ve bought some under-loved shale plays that have fixed their balance sheets and pay good divvies. Favorite is TRGP.
For any biotech people, SGEN and NKTR are ripe for long term holds. I know a guy who works in that space and he feels strongly that SGEN and NKTR are takeout ripened and could be doubles this year or next. Both have impressive products in circulation and some income along with good pipelines.
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
For any biotech people, SGEN and NKTR are ripe for long term holds. I know a guy who works in that space and he feels strongly that SGEN and NKTR are takeout ripened and could be doubles this year or next. Both have impressive products in circulation and some income along with good pipelines.


Yeah...PNWRF continue up Smile

I agree that both these biotechs look like doubles from here.

I’m playing in some smaller names looking for multi-baggers (with higher risk obviously).

Bfw
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
For any biotech people, SGEN and NKTR are ripe for long term holds. I know a guy who works in that space and he feels strongly that SGEN and NKTR are takeout ripened and could be doubles this year or next. Both have impressive products in circulation and some income along with good pipelines.


Yeah...PNWRF continue up Smile

I agree that both these biotechs look like doubles from here.

I’m playing in some smaller names looking for multi-baggers (with higher risk obviously).

Bfw


Which small bios?
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
For any biotech people, SGEN and NKTR are ripe for long term holds. I know a guy who works in that space and he feels strongly that SGEN and NKTR are takeout ripened and could be doubles this year or next. Both have impressive products in circulation and some income along with good pipelines.


Yeah...PNWRF continue up Smile

I agree that both these biotechs look like doubles from here.

I’m playing in some smaller names looking for multi-baggers (with higher risk obviously).

Bfw


Which small bios?


TH.to (THERF) - They have a parternship for a new HIV drug (Ibalizumab) that should be approved by the FDA shortly. I have peak earnings for them at over $2 in 2020. Note that I’ve held this one since 30 cents and am hopeful it takes on a trajectory like JAZZ.

Bti.v (BIOAF) - Riskier. They have technology to transport meds across the blood brain barrier. The company was previously mismanaged but now has a whole new management and board. They’ll need to raise capital but they’re priced like a cheap option at the moment anyway.

Bfw
Thanks...my friend did me a solid on NKTR one to the tune of $20/share and growing. I'm probably going to buy a little more SGEN too at these prices. They have a lot going on and a good drug at market.

Also very glad I went heavy on NVDA and AMZN this year. Just big time growth. I'm going to probably dump NVDA shortly though. Very high turbulence and a 15% gain isn't something to laugh at.

g-man: what do you think of the aging bull? Short of a black swan, how much "legs" are left in this OLD bull market?
i'm in a, take profit when i make a decent chunk, then sit on the side lines and let the world pass me by.

I was ~95-99% invested in stocks up until a month ago.

I'm down to ~60% in stocks unless there's an occasional stock that someone mentions and the #'s work out after looking into the co, in which case I'll move the cash I have sitting on the side lines into play for short term.

so nktr i'm out. Got in monday picked up those great gains monday and today. Out.

a majority of the stocks i currently sit on are consumer staples and big banks. I figure larger cap blue chips might go down but they still pay a dividend typically.

my personal hope is for a 5-10% correction before getting back in, but i've been saying that for the past month and missed out on some gains since i went to so much cash.

i still contribute income into SPY funds regardless as I consider that just better than putting money in a bank.

What i did go into though is large cap china stocks like tencent. They have so much cash sitting around and are just buying up everything, I'm hoping they take over all of china =). The returns for asian stocks so far have far outpaced US stocks.

TLBig GrinR, I'm sitting on a bunch of cash and not as sure as I was last year that the bull market had more to go.
When it happens, I think we see a 15-20% correction with the amount of dumb money in the market now. Maybe Dow 20,000. I’ll be a buyer there and will probably go heavy on oil stocks at that time. We are ripe for a commodity rebound and I suspect that regardless of the market, oil will be a safe play.
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
When it happens, I think we see a 15-20% correction with the amount of dumb money in the market now. Maybe Dow 20,000. I’ll be a buyer there and will probably go heavy on oil stocks at that time. We are ripe for a commodity rebound and I suspect that regardless of the market, oil will be a safe play.


i dont think so

North america just produces soo much damn oil and i dont see it slowing down with mr orange at the head.

that said, hard tangible commodities are always a nice spot to hide some money
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
When it happens, I think we see a 15-20% correction with the amount of dumb money in the market now. Maybe Dow 20,000. I’ll be a buyer there and will probably go heavy on oil stocks at that time. We are ripe for a commodity rebound and I suspect that regardless of the market, oil will be a safe play.


I’ve been accumulating some oil stocks since last year. It really is slow going from them but oil prices have risen significantly and the equities have not followed yet....

The Bloom seems to be finally coming off cryptocurrencies and weed stocks are taking a much needed breather. Some of that money should eventually find its way to the underinvested oil sector.

It’s not often that you can find stable small companies with 9-10% yields (CJ.to) but an energy bear can do that....

Bfw
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
When it happens, I think we see a 15-20% correction with the amount of dumb money in the market now. Maybe Dow 20,000. I’ll be a buyer there and will probably go heavy on oil stocks at that time. We are ripe for a commodity rebound and I suspect that regardless of the market, oil will be a safe play.


i dont think so

North america just produces soo much damn oil and i dont see it slowing down with mr orange at the head.

that said, hard tangible commodities are always a nice spot to hide some money


The US produces just under 50% of its oil needs even after the shale revolution.

Plenty being imported on a daily basis.

Meanwhile, worldwide oil demand grows every year (rapidly lately) and companies have reduced investments globally over the past 3 years.

There is a reason WTI is up from a low of $26 to $65. The Saudis and Russians want it and shale cannot meet worldwide growth alone.

Bfw
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
When it happens, I think we see a 15-20% correction with the amount of dumb money in the market now. Maybe Dow 20,000. I’ll be a buyer there and will probably go heavy on oil stocks at that time. We are ripe for a commodity rebound and I suspect that regardless of the market, oil will be a safe play.


i dont think so

North america just produces soo much damn oil and i dont see it slowing down with mr orange at the head.

that said, hard tangible commodities are always a nice spot to hide some money


The US produces just under 50% of its oil needs even after the shale revolution.

Plenty being imported on a daily basis.

Meanwhile, worldwide oil demand grows every year (rapidly lately) and companies have reduced investments globally over the past 3 years.

There is a reason WTI is up from a low of $26 to $65. The Saudis and Russians want it and shale cannot meet worldwide growth alone.

Bfw


I believe that the US is producing 10 MM bbls a day and importing only 2.5 MM bbls a day and overall is a net exporter of energy.
quote:
Originally posted by ThistlinTom:
I believe that the US is producing 10 MM bbls a day and importing only 2.5 MM bbls a day and overall is a net exporter of energy.


Your production number is correct, just recently surpassed the 10 MM bbls per day, but the imports are 8 MM bbls/day. That is the average of the past 4 weeks, which is down about 4% from the same period last year.

You guys need lots of heavy crude, but produce little. Enter Canada, Venezuela and Mexico.
quote:
Originally posted by steve8:
quote:
Originally posted by ThistlinTom:
I believe that the US is producing 10 MM bbls a day and importing only 2.5 MM bbls a day and overall is a net exporter of energy.


Your production number is correct, just recently surpassed the 10 MM bbls per day, but the imports are 8 MM bbls/day. That is the average of the past 4 weeks, which is down about 4% from the same period last year.

You guys need lots of heavy crude, but produce little. Enter Canada, Venezuela and Mexico.


Exactly. The Americas make alot more oil than generally given credit for. Oil prices may have been trading up but what's the possible upsidenin putting money in oil? I don't see oil going back to the 100+/barrel range anytime soon esp w markets coming down.
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by steve8:
quote:
Originally posted by ThistlinTom:
I believe that the US is producing 10 MM bbls a day and importing only 2.5 MM bbls a day and overall is a net exporter of energy.


Your production number is correct, just recently surpassed the 10 MM bbls per day, but the imports are 8 MM bbls/day. That is the average of the past 4 weeks, which is down about 4% from the same period last year.

You guys need lots of heavy crude, but produce little. Enter Canada, Venezuela and Mexico.


Exactly. The Americas make alot more oil than generally given credit for. Oil prices may have been trading up but what's the possible upsidenin putting money in oil? I don't see oil going back to the 100+/barrel range anytime soon esp w markets coming down.


Actually, the US is getting too much credit lately for its rising production.

The world uses about 100 million barrels per day. The US produces about 10 million or 10% of that.

The issue is production is declining in most other nations and OPEC is limiting supplies along with Russia. Venezuela is on the verge of chaos and almost 2 million barrels per day could be lost if they go offline.

The Permian alone (which is where production increases are coming from) will not be able to match world growth alone.

So $100...not this year...but WTI hitting $80 is a significant possibility. This during a time when oil equities are priced for lower levels. In fact, the energy index recently had its lowest level of market cap vs the overall index ever!

So, all oil equities need is for sentiment to change, shorts to cover and move on and they could see significant appreciation.

Bfw
Interesting take, that you think the world is acutally going on the up tick where as i think we're entering a softening cycle.

But yes, my rebuttal is simply a reflection of my belief in a down cycle in response to winetrooper, if you think the global economy still has alot of juice left then, my below analysis wouldnt apply.

But!

The Americas, not just the US has a significant amount of Oil supplies, production may only be the numbers you quoted but that clearly doesnt tell the story when oil prices go up. The supply in north america puts a very heavy downward cap on where the
price of oil can rise.

Alot of this has to do with OPEC + Russia agreeing to cut and Venezuela in a shit hole so they cant sell anything.

We're also starting to see that the North Americans ramping up production to the highest in 10 years, OPEC is starting to break @ the 65$ mark and have increased outputs in Jan. Russia has stated that they're going to start pumping more again too.

Add that to a future potential loss of usage when a larger majority of car manufacturers move towards direct electric engines all point to a limited upside to oil in the long run.

I'd say 75$ is the possibility and 80$ is the stretch. but with WTI @ 65$. 80$ only represents a 23% gain. That's a long holding period / risk for so little gain.


vs. the excellent recommendation of NKTR. 14% in 1 week.
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
Interesting take, that you think the world is acutally going on the up tick where as i think we're entering a softening cycle.

But yes, my rebuttal is simply a reflection of my belief in a down cycle in response to winetrooper, if you think the global economy still has alot of juice left then, my below analysis wouldnt apply.

But!

The Americas, not just the US has a significant amount of Oil supplies, production may only be the numbers you quoted but that clearly doesnt tell the story when oil prices go up. The supply in north america puts a very heavy downward cap on where the
price of oil can rise.

Alot of this has to do with OPEC + Russia agreeing to cut and Venezuela in a shit hole so they cant sell anything.

We're also starting to see that the North Americans ramping up production to the highest in 10 years, OPEC is starting to break @ the 65$ mark and have increased outputs in Jan. Russia has stated that they're going to start pumping more again too.

Add that to a future potential loss of usage when a larger majority of car manufacturers move towards direct electric engines all point to a limited upside to oil in the long run.

I'd say 75$ is the possibility and 80$ is the stretch. but with WTI @ 65$. 80$ only represents a 23% gain. That's a long holding period / risk for so little gain.


vs. the excellent recommendation of NKTR. 14% in 1 week.


So, I’ll stick to the numbers.

Exxon just projected an increase in demand by 20 million barrels per day until 2040 with stronger gains in early years due to EV replacement in later years.

Many think EV is penetrating now but oil use rises every year (I believe 2008 was the exception). Oil has many uses outside of personal transportation.

In a year or so, Gulf of Mexico production will start to drop off. As well, many legacy wells around the world continue their 4-6% decline per year. Decline never sleeps.

So, I think we’ll see just how much shale will be able to ramp up in 2019-2020 time frame and what price of oil will be needed. The interesting thing about shale is that decline rates can be as high as 70% in the first year. So, it is a bit of a treadmill in terms of adding production.

Finally, we have Saudi on side looking for a higher price to float Aramco. It’s like having the Fed on your side. Also, the spectre of Trump reintroducing sanctions to Iran.

The oil price may not have massive upside but I would argue the equities offer tremendous value here.

As for NKTR (it’s a good pick), I’ll stick will my rec of VLE.TO (PNWRF). It’s up from 42 cents to $5.78 in a few months and this week they will release a resource assessment that will likely be played up by their partner Statoil.

Bfw
I pretty much agree with Bfw, although US demand has been decreasing, world demand is continuing to increase, especially as the world economy strengthens. I don't see EV's impacting demand much for a while. Shale well production does have a high decline rate and companies are being a little more careful about overdrilling.
you guys are both talking mid-long term projections on oil.

Whereas i'm talking about alternatives to buying stocks if there is a market correction in the immediate short term.

you'll see the price of oil and oil companies are pretty tightly correlated with drops in the market especially with current inventory levels/production levels I gave. so I will restate, it's a very bad buy for so little potential upside in the short term as a hedge against stocks.
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
you guys are both talking mid-long term projections on oil.

Whereas i'm talking about alternatives to buying stocks if there is a market correction in the immediate short term.

you'll see the price of oil and oil companies are pretty tightly correlated with drops in the market especially with current inventory levels/production levels I gave. so I will restate, it's a very bad buy for so little potential upside in the short term as a hedge against stocks.



A couple thoughts

(1) SPY down about 5% last 5 days. WTI price essentially flat

(2) Total crude inventories in US were up by 56 million barrels in first 3 months last year. The projection for this year is minimal to no build.

So, short term, crude could (and has) definitely outperform the market. What would be really interesting is if at the end of the market correction, some sector rotation occurred and money flowed in to XLE and XOP.

Perhaps Goldman is anticipating this with their recent call for Brent to hit $82.

But, in the interim, if you expect a market correction.....just short the market.

Bfw
There's a decided difference in actually putting more money at risk by shorting the market to rotating money into different sectors though.

It would be interesting to see if money does rotate into oil stocks and oil holdings.

I feel smart money is going to move to cash as the dumb money has suddenly decided to finally enter the market that all the macro guys have been pining for for years.

As with the goldman report.

Well who can forget the https://www.marketwatch.com/st...-of-200-a-barrel-oil
quote:
Originally posted by irwin:
quote:
Originally posted by wine+art:
I don’t have the energy to jump deep into this thread this morning, but I lost ($37k+) with my oil stocks on Friday.


Yikes.


Dividends.... dividends... dividends... I keep telling myself. Cool
quote:
Originally posted by wine+art:
quote:
Originally posted by irwin:
quote:
Originally posted by wine+art:
I don’t have the energy to jump deep into this thread this morning, but I lost ($37k+) with my oil stocks on Friday.


Yikes.


Dividends.... dividends... dividends... I keep telling myself. Cool


cash is king ;-)
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by wine+art:
quote:
Originally posted by irwin:
quote:
Originally posted by wine+art:
I don’t have the energy to jump deep into this thread this morning, but I lost ($37k+) with my oil stocks on Friday.


Yikes.


Dividends.... dividends... dividends... I keep telling myself. Cool


cash is king ;-)



VLE new 52 week high in this horrific tape Smile

Bfw
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:

VLE new 52 week high in this horrific tape Smile

Bfw


heh,

I know literally 0 about canadian stocks and wouldnt even know where to begin looking into anything related to fundamental analysis on these small cap no news but go up 5% stocks =)

but if you got any more tips, let me know Cool
quote:
Originally posted by VinT:
Was that the bottom or just a dead cat bounce? Big Grin


i actually got 4 hours of sleep

sold off the morning highs

got lucky (tho not that lucky, lost a few thanks to merrill edge not letting me log in) and picked up disney in the afternoon then went back to sleep.

i'm going to sell first thing tomorrow morning =)

#cashisking
I don't think we are there with sentiment yet. Market is still Goldilocks. Sentiment is still bullish but some worry building. Irrational exuberance is nigh however. That said, I think being in cash now isn't a bad thing. If you have to wait 2-6 months for the popping bubble.
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:

VLE new 52 week high in this horrific tape Smile

Bfw


heh,

I know literally 0 about canadian stocks and wouldnt even know where to begin looking into anything related to fundamental analysis on these small cap no news but go up 5% stocks =)

but if you got any more tips, let me know Cool


Well, VLE released the resource estimate last night.

Price targets have been moved close to $10 Canadian.

Between, you and me...this sells for no less than $20 and if not bought this year has a chance for $50-79 per share Smile

Bfw
quote:
Originally posted by mangiare:
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
Between, you and me...
Bfw


love this kind of advice regarding stocks that are up %4-500 in the past month


Perhaps you should read back in the thread and realize I have been long the stock since 38 cents!

Bfw
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:

VLE new 52 week high in this horrific tape Smile

Bfw


heh,

I know literally 0 about canadian stocks and wouldnt even know where to begin looking into anything related to fundamental analysis on these small cap no news but go up 5% stocks =)

but if you got any more tips, let me know Cool


Well, VLE released the resource estimate last night.

Price targets have been moved close to $10 Canadian.

Between, you and me...this sells for no less than $20 and if not bought this year has a chance for $50-79 per share Smile

Bfw


Thanks Bfw...I was in 50% ago. I’ll continue holding.
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
What are the land holdings for VLE in Turkey? They must have bought up/leased tons of it for your valuation to be considered sane?


Also I note that VLE's unrisked (proven?)estimate of their gas there is over 10 Tcf, with an additional 5 Tcf risked (unproven?).

Pretty impressive because the nat gas production in the entire U.S. in the year 2014 was 13.5 Tcf. Add to this that Turkey has enormous shortages and therefore the price is multiples higher than in the U.S., and I'm a believer in your forecasts.
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
What are the land holdings for VLE in Turkey? They must have bought up/leased tons of it for your valuation to be considered sane?


Also I note that VLE's unrisked (proven?)estimate of their gas there is over 10 Tcf, with an additional 5 Tcf risked (unproven?).

Pretty impressive because the nat gas production in the entire U.S. in the year 2014 was 13.5 Tcf. Add to this that Turkey has enormous shortages and therefore the price is multiples higher than in the U.S., and I'm a believer in your forecasts.


http://hydracapital.ca/hydra-blog.html

If you own, you should read all of his blogs on the stock. He is the one who introduced to the name and is more knowledgeable than most of the analysts out there.

Big spike and sell off late. They may announce a financing sooner than later.

Bfw
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
If you read the background it definitely sounds too good to be true. If it was that good it would already be $20 a share.


I guess that is why Statoil, the 11th biggest publicly traded oil company in the world, has decided to ante up for another well and advance the drilling further in Q3.

There’s clearly risk but “too good to be true” seems intellectually lazy to me.

Anyway, good luck to all in this very choppy market.

Bfw
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
If you read the background it definitely sounds too good to be true. If it was that good it would already be $20 a share.


I guess that is why Statoil, the 11th biggest publicly traded oil company in the world, has decided to ante up for another well and advance the drilling further in Q3.

There’s clearly risk but “too good to be true” seems intellectually lazy to me.

Anyway, good luck to all in this very choppy market.

Bfw


That’s why I bought a little more Bfw. I’m pretty wary of things that seem pie in the sky though....because I’ve played in the small biotech space which is full of shysters and con-men. I’m sure they have played games in small oil patches since they found black stuff oozing out of the ground too.
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
oh and nvda


Great. If I would have bought it back at 220, it would have reported -11% growth and dropped 40. But no.

Oh well. Maybe it will dip with the market more like AMZN has been doing.


i think you're missing something =)

242.77 +25.25 (11.61%)
After hours: 5:04PM EST
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
just like how how oil is going to reach 80$?

reading and blindly believing goldman feels intellectually lazy to me =)


Easy there Smile

Perhaps we should discuss the NKTR that you were crowing about lol! $93 to $73 in a few short days. While VLE is up over 10%...hmmm.

I am not directly long oil as I mentioned. I am long some oil equities. They are
mostly down in the correction with everything else. I believe you will see some sector rotation once the S&P and Nasdaq finish their correction. That remains to be seen...

As for Goldman, I am always wary of their calls...I’ve been investing for a long time...but I do fundamental research on the oil markets and I believe you will see them tighter by the end of the year.

Bfw
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
just like how how oil is going to reach 80$?

reading and blindly believing goldman feels intellectually lazy to me =)


Easy there Smile

Perhaps we should discuss the NKTR that you were crowing about lol! $93 to $73 in a few short days. While VLE is up over 10%...hmmm.

I am not directly long oil as I mentioned. I am long some oil equities. They are
mostly down in the correction with everything else. I believe you will see some sector rotation once the S&P and Nasdaq finish their correction. That remains to be seen...

As for Goldman, I am always wary of their calls...I’ve been investing for a long time...but I do fundamental research on the oil markets and I believe you will see them tighter by the end of the year.

Bfw


oh i've been selling every single gain/pop i've got this week. so NKTR was stilla great trade since winetrooper suggested it at 72$ and that was a nice 1 week 10% pick up.

I have 0 reason to trust any rally.

but i refuse to go outright short as i dont trust the downside either.

my goal is to try and close out all positions i enter in the day and exit them first thing in the morning.

anyhow i just found the goldman research amusing. They were harping on tuesday to go fully back in and buy all dips.

my big loser this week, unforutnately is BAC. I was rotating some stuff into financials because i'm hoping raising rates will boost bank profits and dividends in the long run. unfortunately, rotated in too soon. very sad.
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
just like how how oil is going to reach 80$?

reading and blindly believing goldman feels intellectually lazy to me =)


Easy there Smile

Perhaps we should discuss the NKTR that you were crowing about lol! $93 to $73 in a few short days. While VLE is up over 10%...hmmm.

I am not directly long oil as I mentioned. I am long some oil equities. They are
mostly down in the correction with everything else. I believe you will see some sector rotation once the S&P and Nasdaq finish their correction. That remains to be seen...

As for Goldman, I am always wary of their calls...I’ve been investing for a long time...but I do fundamental research on the oil markets and I believe you will see them tighter by the end of the year.

Bfw


oh i've been selling every single gain/pop i've got this week. so NKTR was stilla great trade since winetrooper suggested it at 72$ and that was a nice 1 week 10% pick up.

I have 0 reason to trust any rally.

but i refuse to go outright short as i dont trust the downside either.

my goal is to try and close out all positions i enter in the day and exit them first thing in the morning.

anyhow i just found the goldman research amusing. They were harping on tuesday to go fully back in and buy all dips.

my big loser this week, unforutnately is BAC. I was rotating some stuff into financials because i'm hoping raising rates will boost bank profits and dividends in the long run. unfortunately, rotated in too soon. very sad.


NKTR is a very long hold for me. So is SGEN.

As for everything else, I’ve closed out most of it. I am now convinced we see another 10% correction/stagnation for a quarter before rising up. I can’t help but think that the end of the low interest rate party could get messy. That might in itself be the Black Swan, even though it seems “normal” and “expected.”

Opportunity will knock soon enough.

I am however curious about emerging markets and commodities for Bfw’s sector rotation. And yes g-man, the banks....how do they not win?
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
just like how how oil is going to reach 80$?

reading and blindly believing goldman feels intellectually lazy to me =)


Easy there Smile

Perhaps we should discuss the NKTR that you were crowing about lol! $93 to $73 in a few short days. While VLE is up over 10%...hmmm.

I am not directly long oil as I mentioned. I am long some oil equities. They are
mostly down in the correction with everything else. I believe you will see some sector rotation once the S&P and Nasdaq finish their correction. That remains to be seen...

As for Goldman, I am always wary of their calls...I’ve been investing for a long time...but I do fundamental research on the oil markets and I believe you will see them tighter by the end of the year.

Bfw


oh i've been selling every single gain/pop i've got this week. so NKTR was stilla great trade since winetrooper suggested it at 72$ and that was a nice 1 week 10% pick up.

I have 0 reason to trust any rally.

but i refuse to go outright short as i dont trust the downside either.

my goal is to try and close out all positions i enter in the day and exit them first thing in the morning.

anyhow i just found the goldman research amusing. They were harping on tuesday to go fully back in and buy all dips.

my big loser this week, unforutnately is BAC. I was rotating some stuff into financials because i'm hoping raising rates will boost bank profits and dividends in the long run. unfortunately, rotated in too soon. very sad.


NKTR is a very long hold for me. So is SGEN.

As for everything else, I’ve closed out most of it. I am now convinced we see another 10% correction/stagnation for a quarter before rising up. I can’t help but think that the end of the low interest rate party could get messy. That might in itself be the Black Swan, even though it seems “normal” and “expected.”

Opportunity will knock soon enough.

I am however curious about emerging markets and commodities for Bfw’s sector rotation. And yes g-man, the banks....how do they not win?


Yes, I think we could see another 10% down in US markets as well.

I also don’t touch long term holdings.

As for sector rotation, the key will be keeping an eye on which sectors come off the bottom (whenever it arrives) better. I think another key will be to see the US dollar index fall.


Interesting times indeed....

Bfw
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
just like how how oil is going to reach 80$?

reading and blindly believing goldman feels intellectually lazy to me =)


Easy there Smile

Perhaps we should discuss the NKTR that you were crowing about lol! $93 to $73 in a few short days. While VLE is up over 10%...hmmm.

I am not directly long oil as I mentioned. I am long some oil equities. They are
mostly down in the correction with everything else. I believe you will see some sector rotation once the S&P and Nasdaq finish their correction. That remains to be seen...

As for Goldman, I am always wary of their calls...I’ve been investing for a long time...but I do fundamental research on the oil markets and I believe you will see them tighter by the end of the year.

Bfw


oh i've been selling every single gain/pop i've got this week. so NKTR was stilla great trade since winetrooper suggested it at 72$ and that was a nice 1 week 10% pick up.

I have 0 reason to trust any rally.

but i refuse to go outright short as i dont trust the downside either.

my goal is to try and close out all positions i enter in the day and exit them first thing in the morning.

anyhow i just found the goldman research amusing. They were harping on tuesday to go fully back in and buy all dips.

my big loser this week, unforutnately is BAC. I was rotating some stuff into financials because i'm hoping raising rates will boost bank profits and dividends in the long run. unfortunately, rotated in too soon. very sad.


NKTR is a very long hold for me. So is SGEN.

As for everything else, I’ve closed out most of it. I am now convinced we see another 10% correction/stagnation for a quarter before rising up. I can’t help but think that the end of the low interest rate party could get messy. That might in itself be the Black Swan, even though it seems “normal” and “expected.”

Opportunity will knock soon enough.

I am however curious about emerging markets and commodities for Bfw’s sector rotation. And yes g-man, the banks....how do they not win?


Yes, I think we could see another 10% down in US markets as well.

I also don’t touch long term holdings.


As for sector rotation, the key will be keeping an eye on which sectors come off the bottom (whenever it arrives) better. I think another key will be to see the US dollar index fall.


Interesting times indeed....

Bfw


Yep...I'll keep increasing my position in VOO. Stay the course, gents.

If VNQ (REIT ETF) increases their industrial & multifamily shares (especially PLD), I'm long there too.
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by Shane T.:


Yep...I'll keep increasing my position in VOO. Stay the course, gents.

If VNQ (REIT ETF) increases their industrial & multifamily shares (especially PLD), I'm long there too.


lol you talking to jack??


Come at me, bro! Lol!!!

If I'm down on VOO by Tahoma 4.0, the Krug is on me. Wanna take that bet?

That is, if VOO is below today's close ($236.79)...
quote:
Originally posted by Shane T.:
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by Shane T.:


Yep...I'll keep increasing my position in VOO. Stay the course, gents.

If VNQ (REIT ETF) increases their industrial & multifamily shares (especially PLD), I'm long there too.


lol you talking to jack??


Come at me, bro! Lol!!!

If I'm down on VOO by Tahoma 4.0, the Krug is on me. Wanna take that bet?

That is, if VOO is below today's close ($236.79)...


it's not about being up

but by how much, even more so as we get older ;-)
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by Shane T.:
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by Shane T.:


Yep...I'll keep increasing my position in VOO. Stay the course, gents.

If VNQ (REIT ETF) increases their industrial & multifamily shares (especially PLD), I'm long there too.


lol you talking to jack??


Come at me, bro! Lol!!!

If I'm down on VOO by Tahoma 4.0, the Krug is on me. Wanna take that bet?

That is, if VOO is below today's close ($236.79)...


it's not about being up

but by how much, even more so as we get older ;-)


And...that's what she said.
quote:
Originally posted by bomba503:
JNUG loaded up near the low on Friday. Could have a bit more to run before I take the profit and go the other way.

All losses recovered from last couple weeks and then some


posting recs after they've run up 14% in a day is not my idea of a good rec!!

it's like those bums who drink a wine, dont share with you, then tell you how great it was!
I bought some stock today in Square (SQ).
Don't buy it because I did. It seems like it is on the way up and is supposed to announced good earnings (so the rumor is) shortly. Morgan Stanley has an unfavorable view of it.

It will either go up, go down, or stay the same, unless I am totally wrong about it.
quote:
Originally posted by irwin:
I bought some stock today in Square (SQ).
Don't buy it because I did. It seems like it is on the way up and is supposed to announced good earnings (so the rumor is) shortly. Morgan Stanley has an unfavorable view of it.

It will either go up, go down, or stay the same, unless I am totally wrong about it.


I also purchased some within the past month or so along with an equal amount of Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM). I consider both medium term holds.
Anything to do with South Africa and its resource access will be skyrocketing in value with the new political climate that is about to beset it. Precious metals, rare earth minerals, domestic mining companies will all benefit from the imminent disruptions; it's going to be crazy over there!
quote:
Originally posted by Captain Cancun:
Anything to do with South Africa and its resource access will be skyrocketing in value with the new political climate that is about to beset it. Precious metals, rare earth minerals, domestic mining companies will all benefit from the imminent disruptions; it's going to be crazy over there!

I believe the continent of Africa is now a wholly owned subsidiary of China.
quote:
Originally posted by VinT:
Trade wars are good, and easy to win.


See, you are not focused on the now 26 people whom have left his administration in the first 13 months, or the 5 guilty pleas to federal crimes and more currently under indictment within his administration, or the investigations of both his daughter and son-in-law and not to mention this reality TV on guns this week that was LOL funny.

That said, yes, he is the only person that thinks trade wars will benefit America or anyone for that matter.

What a kangaroo court at its best.
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
just like how how oil is going to reach 80$?

reading and blindly believing goldman feels intellectually lazy to me =)


Easy there Smile

Perhaps we should discuss the NKTR that you were crowing about lol! $93 to $73 in a few short days. While VLE is up over 10%...hmmm.

I am not directly long oil as I mentioned. I am long some oil equities. They are
mostly down in the correction with everything else. I believe you will see some sector rotation once the S&P and Nasdaq finish their correction. That remains to be seen...

As for Goldman, I am always wary of their calls...I’ve been investing for a long time...but I do fundamental research on the oil markets and I believe you will see them tighter by the end of the year.

Bfw


oh i've been selling every single gain/pop i've got this week. so NKTR was stilla great trade since winetrooper suggested it at 72$ and that was a nice 1 week 10% pick up.

I have 0 reason to trust any rally.

but i refuse to go outright short as i dont trust the downside either.

my goal is to try and close out all positions i enter in the day and exit them first thing in the morning.

anyhow i just found the goldman research amusing. They were harping on tuesday to go fully back in and buy all dips.

my big loser this week, unforutnately is BAC. I was rotating some stuff into financials because i'm hoping raising rates will boost bank profits and dividends in the long run. unfortunately, rotated in too soon. very sad.


NKTR is a very long hold for me. So is SGEN.

As for everything else, I’ve closed out most of it. I am now convinced we see another 10% correction/stagnation for a quarter before rising up. I can’t help but think that the end of the low interest rate party could get messy. That might in itself be the Black Swan, even though it seems “normal” and “expected.”

Opportunity will knock soon enough.

I am however curious about emerging markets and commodities for Bfw’s sector rotation. And yes g-man, the banks....how do they not win?


NKTR - great data.

Market pushing it way up.

Congrats!

Bfw
quote:
Originally posted by VinT:
I've been on the SQ roller coaster since August. And now, in typical market fashion, a positive quarterly earnings report has led to a drop in share price. At least after hours - tomorrow is another day.


Good day today for SQ!
quote:
Originally posted by sunnylea57:
I'm still big on Broadridge (BR). Up 17% since mid-November, despite the market turmoil this past month.

Now up 21% since mid-November. On a steady climb for the past 5 years. Looking at the 6 month graph, it's like someone dropped a bowling ball on the graph at the beginning of February and two weeks later it bounced back up onto the same relentless trajectory.
man i missed alot of good price movement going on vacation and not even looking!

portfolio regained all losses and then made a few!

I think i'm going to slowly go to 50-60% cash again at these levels and then just wait and see if fellow forumites have better stock hook ups =)
quote:
Originally posted by Shane T.:
I like Physicians Realty Trust ("DOC") on the dip. Excellent portfolio, lease structures/ tenants, management, and dividend. Long term hold.


what's interesting about REITs is how much the new tax laws benefit large real estate owners.

interesting space to look at esp if the management is strong.
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by Shane T.:
I like Physicians Realty Trust ("DOC") on the dip. Excellent portfolio, lease structures/ tenants, management, and dividend. Long term hold.


what's interesting about REITs is how much the new tax laws benefit large real estate owners.

interesting space to look at esp if the management is strong.


You got it, bro. Great news for my industry.

I also like the cold-storage space right now. Huge space shortage + demand for last-mile deliveries is a great recipe here. Americold ("COLD") just IPO'd this year. That one looks promising.
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
just like how how oil is going to reach 80$?

reading and blindly believing goldman feels intellectually lazy to me =)


So, do you still think oil can’t reach $80 this year?

Brent is already at $73 or so.

The energy bull is starting to snort Smile

Bfw
quote:
Originally posted by Shane T.:
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by Shane T.:
I like Physicians Realty Trust ("DOC") on the dip. Excellent portfolio, lease structures/ tenants, management, and dividend. Long term hold.


what's interesting about REITs is how much the new tax laws benefit large real estate owners.

interesting space to look at esp if the management is strong.


You got it, bro. Great news for my industry.

I also like the cold-storage space right now. Huge space shortage + demand for last-mile deliveries is a great recipe here. Americold ("COLD") just IPO'd this year. That one looks promising.


Brookfield has got into this space as well (through Nova Cold) and they are in my mind some of the smartest money in the world.
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
just like how how oil is going to reach 80$?

reading and blindly believing goldman feels intellectually lazy to me =)


So, do you still think oil can’t reach $80 this year?

Brent is already at $73 or so.

The energy bull is starting to snort Smile

Bfw


we were talking about WTI
not brent.

WTI, last I check is still sitting at 64?

even so, you needed to thank syria to even get at those levels.

personally, I went long BP stock down at 38$ when WTI was sitting at 59.

good long term, good dividends and strongest position out of the big oil co.s

and i'll quote myself back in early feb
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
I'd say 75$ is the possibility and 80$ is the stretch. but with WTI @ 65$. 80$ only represents a 23% gain. That's a long holding period / risk for so little gain.


i'd say i'm pretty spot on.
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
just like how how oil is going to reach 80$?

reading and blindly believing goldman feels intellectually lazy to me =)


So, do you still think oil can’t reach $80 this year?

Brent is already at $73 or so.

The energy bull is starting to snort Smile

Bfw


we were talking about WTI
not brent.

WTI, last I check is still sitting at 64?

even so, you needed to thank syria to even get at those levels.

personally, I went long BP stock down at 38$ when WTI was sitting at 59.

good long term, good dividends and strongest position out of the big oil co.s

and i'll quote myself back in early feb
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
I'd say 75$ is the possibility and 80$ is the stretch. but with WTI @ 65$. 80$ only represents a 23% gain. That's a long holding period / risk for so little gain.


i'd say i'm pretty spot on.


WTI at $64?!?

WTI hit a 3 year high today and is currently trading just south of $67.

The best part is that most people think this is all about Syria. That is mainstream news. They don’t really look in to inventory levels and study the lack of a shoulder season in the US this year.

Years of underinvestment in oil exploration have set the stage for a boom cycle in oil price. If inventories were not tight, Syrian news would have zero effect on WTI. We saw this all along in 2015-2017 whenever there were outages in Nigeria etc or issues in the Middle East.

Everyone has said energy is dead for years now and oil (WTI) has rallied from a low of $26 to $67. That’s pretty substantial and indicative of a bull market.

Finally, I (and most) play equities that are very levered to the price of oil so a rise to $75 or $80 will lead to large equity price gains from depressed levels.

Risk reward in the space is excellent.

Stick to the big companies if you must but way more bang for the buck in the smaller E&P.

Bfw
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
Give us some names please


It should be like shooting fish in a barrel.

Here are a few you can research:

CPG, BTE, CVE, DNR, REN

BTW, I don’t mean to sound abrasive or rude but I just hate how the media seems to be misleading us when inventories are crashing.

Bfw
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
Give us some names please


It should be like shooting fish in a barrel.

Here are a few you can research:

CPG, BTE, CVE, DNR, REN

BTW, I don’t mean to sound abrasive or rude but I just hate how the media seems to be misleading us when inventories are crashing.

Bfw


your posts do sound like a Crazy Eddie sales pitch at times =)


I checked some of the stocks you had there.

if you had bought in when we first chatted back in feb 2nd, you would have sat at an average loss of roughly 11% until, literally, yesterday where you broke even.

I won't argue mainstream news vs those in the know news, but it's a little difficult to subscribe to the "commodity markets are so inefficient" that there's is a misprice of a commodity by a significant amount.

but keep the tips coming, always enjoy reading contrarian views to keep my thoughts in check.
I really wish I would have continued playing the volatility in the OIL ETF. I could have bought cycled twice now from the mid-high 6.50 area and sold again around 7.30-7.40. It is like clockwork again. That is probably what I will do if we get another drop before summer.
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
Give us some names please


It should be like shooting fish in a barrel.

Here are a few you can research:

CPG, BTE, CVE, DNR, REN

BTW, I don’t mean to sound abrasive or rude but I just hate how the media seems to be misleading us when inventories are crashing.

Bfw


your posts do sound like a Crazy Eddie sales pitch at times =)


I checked some of the stocks you had there.

if you had bought in when we first chatted back in feb 2nd, you would have sat at an average loss of roughly 11% until, literally, yesterday where you broke even.

I won't argue mainstream news vs those in the know news, but it's a little difficult to subscribe to the "commodity markets are so inefficient" that there's is a misprice of a commodity by a significant amount.

but keep the tips coming, always enjoy reading contrarian views to keep my thoughts in check.


I only hold a couple of the ones I listed. I’m still building my positions in them. I hold many others listed such as CJ.to which is still paying me 10% a year in divvies while I wait for more gains in the SP.

Thanks for the tip...however.

Let me know if you can beat my 90% overall portfolio gain from last year Smile

Crazy Eddie over and out....back to studying another new 3 year high for oil despite positive news on Syria :;

As for the commodity being mispriced....I said no such thing...I said it is evidently going higher sooner than most think.

As for the equities being mispriced....yes they are insanely mispriced.

Bfw

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