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g-man posted:
bfw posted:
g-man posted:
heh not saying they aren't legit,

but that sounds totally like a boiler room type of trade.

hopeuflly he's more correct than goldman predicting Brent @ 80$/barrel in the short term

Hey Gman,

Do you remember writing this a few short months ago

You do know that Brent hit over $80 right

Looks like Goldman had the last laugh on that prediction.

 

bfw

bfw posted:

"Perhaps Goldman is anticipating this with their recent call for Brent to hit $82."

The call from goldman was brent to hit 82.  It went an intraday of 80.5 like 3 days ago before promptly dropping and closing at 79.80, then took the next few days to hit 76.44 because as I've said, people are underestimating US production which I was spot on about.  Political tensions is what causes the recent run up and unfortunately I can't control the big orange idiot in office so I can only buy on the rumors and sell on the actual news in this market environment.

So I took BP from 41 and up fro the ride at 47, and sold as soon as I saw the US production numbers.

But Sir, I've been far more accurate on oil predictions than anything you've been saying so far =)

How's your blogger's trade idea working out right now?

Gman,

41 to 47 on BP

Congrats lol. Check the charts on BTE, CJ.to (big yield as well) etc that I mentioned here in the last 8 weeks. Your pick underperformed badly. I’m glad you made cash but let’s be real. Your call on oil was wrong (you laughed at $80 Brent which was already hit in May!) and your choice of equity was  inferior.

As for THERF, my 5000% gain in the last few years is tough to beat.

As for VLE.to, I added some this past week. My average is well below $0.80 so I’m still doing ok there. It will likely drift until they start drilling again in the Fall. Erdogan’s politics are not helping. It was nice to see the CEO buying in the open market on Friday.

Finally, I figured you’d play the political angle with oil. The drop this past week was more to do with OPEC than US production. That being said, you may want to look up Midland/Permian WTI differentials and transport bottlenecks before you book huge US production increases from here.

So, I’m bearish short term on oil but bullish medium to long term.

 

 

 

bfw

 

that's not how advice works, you can't tell someone to look at a stock and when it loses money you say "oh I bought it at .80 cents"

that's like me telling you guys i had netflix at 15 dollars so it's okay that it drops a few % points.

Let's be real here.  Also we were talking about WTI for most of the time.  which hasnt anywhere near 80$ yet.

And how is BP, when i mentioned it back in April a underperformer?

14.6% gain in 4 weeks.

Brent is 9.5% over the same period?

There's a near .9 correlation between BP stock and oil?  

You seriously trade with alot of emotion.  

Gman,

I’ve got nothing further positive to say based on your past predictions, reality and stock picks. Therefore, I shall refrain from further comments.

As a final note, you may not want to reference someone as simply a “blogger” without researching their credentials...http://hydracapital.ca/hydra-partners.html.

bfw

Which one are you?

I don't mind  your suggestions, except you dont particular back up much of your commentary at times.  Like i mentioned, I dont mind hearing a different point of view, but your responses all sound like a boiler room sales pitch looking to sell the next penny stock.

As with credentials, I've been on the street for almost 20 years in various capacities.  I've actually worked at every large cap investment bank within the trading and risk areas except citibank.

Last edited by g-man
g-man posted:

Which one are you?

I don't mind  your suggestions, except you dont particular back up much of your commentary at times.  Like i mentioned, I dont mind hearing a different point of view, but your responses all sound like a boiler room sales pitch looking to sell the next penny stock.

As with credentials, I've been on the street for almost 20 years in various capacities.  I've actually worked at every large cap investment bank within the trading and risk areas except citibank.

Gman,

I am none of those individuals. Shaw is the fellow who recommended VLE.to to me many moons ago. His investment strategy is similar to mine. 

We look for asymmetric risk with significant upside and limited downside. This results in some bets being losses (small caps withering or ceasing to exist for example) and others growing significantly (VLE, THERF, numerous O&G takeovers etc).

The main premise is that as long as I can get 2 1000% gainers out of 10 investments, the other 8 don’t matter. I’ve been doing this for about 25 years and first started investing in the late 80s (my father was a broker and I vividly recall the 87 crash).

Lately, I’ve been working my way in to some PP’s and private investments. Energy has been an interest for me since 2008 fwiw.

So, basically, I’ll invest any time I think there is asymmetric risk. This is why I bought plenty of CJ.to when it was yielding around 10% because that yield was sustainable at WTI $47.

Anyway, that is my story as an individual investor who spends too much time on the markets

 

bfw

 

Certainly a very fair strategy and one that i take a punt on with some of my private investments i have too, 2 out of 10 is very very good, I'm no where near as lucky on these small caps.  My batting record on these private firms is like 1 out of 24 so far.  Little frustrating so you can imagine i've h eard quite alot of "optimistic" pitches in my time.

My experience has been trading derivatives, like credit default swaps.  my main area of focus was emerging markets/south america.  Other half of my career was looking at US government securities and municipal bonds.  So i've always been more of a numbers guy.

So pardon my general skepticism (that i do with wine too),it's just the way i do things =)

winetrooper posted:
For any biotech people, SGEN and NKTR are ripe for long term holds. I know a guy who works in that space and he feels strongly that SGEN and NKTR are takeout ripened and could be doubles this year or next. Both have impressive products in circulation and some income along with good pipelines.

I hope you got out of NKTR after it has that nice run.

It got smashed by over 40% today.

I guess these latest results call in to question their platform.

 

bfw

I did get out entirely after hearing their quarterly report and some uncertainty with data that they were preparing for ASCO.  They tried to spin it but I’ve learned that with bio you shouldn’t ever believe company spin because whether true or not they will be taken to the woodshed by the market at release of the actual info.  I dodged a bullet with pretty much a push.  If I would have gotten out at $110 that would’ve been wonderful but pigs get slaughtered.  I was a pig LOL.

winetrooper posted:

I did get out entirely after hearing their quarterly report and some uncertainty with data that they were preparing for ASCO.  They tried to spin it but I’ve learned that with bio you shouldn’t ever believe company spin because whether true or not they will be taken to the woodshed by the market at release of the actual info.  I dodged a bullet with pretty much a push.  If I would have gotten out at $110 that would’ve been wonderful but pigs get slaughtered.  I was a pig LOL.

Got lucky @101,

but in this market environment i'm not taking chances with holding, I'm taking profit and see just having patience to wait for the next one.  you never know when a random trigger might tank something.

It's been a wild ride this year. After the massive plunges in my portfolio in early February and mid-March, everything has rebounded and I'm up 6.5% on the year. I'll take it. Broadridge  (BR) has been the biggest winner (+37% since I bought it in November), but everything is up to some degree.

Like g-man suggests, I'm thinking I'll get out of certain positions soon and then buy back in during the next inevitable plummet.

bfw posted:
g-man posted:

Which one are you?

I don't mind  your suggestions, except you dont particular back up much of your commentary at times.  Like i mentioned, I dont mind hearing a different point of view, but your responses all sound like a boiler room sales pitch looking to sell the next penny stock.

As with credentials, I've been on the street for almost 20 years in various capacities.  I've actually worked at every large cap investment bank within the trading and risk areas except citibank.

Gman,

I am none of those individuals. Shaw is the fellow who recommended VLE.to to me many moons ago. His investment strategy is similar to mine. 

We look for asymmetric risk with significant upside and limited downside. This results in some bets being losses (small caps withering or ceasing to exist for example) and others growing significantly (VLE, THERF, numerous O&G takeovers etc).

The main premise is that as long as I can get 2 1000% gainers out of 10 investments, the other 8 don’t matter. I’ve been doing this for about 25 years and first started investing in the late 80s (my father was a broker and I vividly recall the 87 crash).

Lately, I’ve been working my way in to some PP’s and private investments. Energy has been an interest for me since 2008 fwiw.

So, basically, I’ll invest any time I think there is asymmetric risk. This is why I bought plenty of CJ.to when it was yielding around 10% because that yield was sustainable at WTI $47.

Anyway, that is my story as an individual investor who spends too much time on the markets

 

bfw

 

And here I thought you were Bill Washington for a second! I was going to remind him that public advice is a silly thing to do in our industry and he should know better. It's also why I don't post in this thread and just roll my eyes at half of it instead!

robsutherland posted:

And here I thought you were Bill Washington for a second! I was going to remind him that public advice is a silly thing to do in our industry and he should know better. It's also why I don't post in this thread and just roll my eyes at half of it instead!

who is bill washington??

heh, there's nothing wrong with the tips/suggestions, i personally find it incredibly helpful to branch out in other areas, but obviously do your own due diligence and dont gamble what you can't lose.  I've definitely been enlightened with ideas that i may not see that someone else brings to light so even if i disagree, i try not to ever poo poo any idea.  (not easy to maintain though).

 

As with the current market, I'm still of the mind you buy into the rumors and you sell into the news. Trump may start a trade war, but at the macro level (if you're doing only index) it's a good oppurtunity to get in short term and get out as soon as it pops.

I do feel inevitably, folks are going to have enough of this nonsense and then the bears will come on in force.  That'd be a frightening day.

g-man posted:
robsutherland posted:

And here I thought you were Bill Washington for a second! I was going to remind him that public advice is a silly thing to do in our industry and he should know better. It's also why I don't post in this thread and just roll my eyes at half of it instead!

who is bill washington??

heh, there's nothing wrong with the tips/suggestions, i personally find it incredibly helpful to branch out in other areas, but obviously do your own due diligence and dont gamble what you can't lose.  I've definitely been enlightened with ideas that i may not see that someone else brings to light so even if i disagree, i try not to ever poo poo any idea.  (not easy to maintain though).

 

Bill was the head of Mining investment Banking at National Bank Financial (and before that the head of investment banking at a boutique called Wellington West). I used to work at NBF and he's well known in Toronto. 

Ok, as promised, I’d look at turning bullish on oil after OPEC.

Well, I’m now bullish again.

Despite OPEC pledging to bring some supply back on, oil prices rallied nicely today as the market is and will be in an undersupplied situation.

Meanwhile, Permian producers are starting to run up against infrastructure restrictions (pipelines).

My picks are still pretty much the same...CJ.TO (still a great yield), CPG.TO (so beaten up) and BTE (market hated their deal but its ok long term). I was fortunate to sell most of my BTE position 6 weeks ago as I did not see that merger happening. I added some back in the past week.

Finally, I mentioned DNR previously and it has been a star...

In any respect, a rising tide should lift all boats unless Trump unleashes an SPR tsunami.

Bfw

 

 

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