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quote:
Originally posted by ThistlinTom:
I'm curious, for those that play the market with all or part of your investments, do you track how you do with them relative to the general market and if so are you ahead or behind the market?

I used to do some stock picking, but now leave it up to my investment managers.


I have a mix of both.

if i have a investment manager, i expect them to keep pace/beat a passive index fund since I have a fairly aggressive risk stance and the fees arent the lowest.

for the stuff i do look at, well im strickly gambling.
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
Well, the analysts seem to be coming around on oil.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news...-bofa-s-blanch-video

Meanwhile, the equities have had a good week. They’ll be overbought short term but the trend is set for higher prices this summer.

I’ve just about finished rounding out my positions for the bull run.

Bfw


haha this guy again.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/201...oils-black-swan.html

"I think in 2017 june oils' going to be 75$ bla bla bla black swan"

one takes a look at oil charts in 2017 june? 44.45

nice call.


As with equities, they were oversold, strong earnings to start brought them back, but there seems to be noise as the later earnings seem to falter a little.

That would be them fairly efficiently priced. This market at this day is neither overbought nor oversold.
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
Well, the analysts seem to be coming around on oil.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news...-bofa-s-blanch-video

Meanwhile, the equities have had a good week. They’ll be overbought short term but the trend is set for higher prices this summer.

I’ve just about finished rounding out my positions for the bull run.

Bfw


haha this guy again.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/201...oils-black-swan.html

"I think in 2017 june oils' going to be 75$ bla bla bla black swan"

one takes a look at oil charts in 2017 june? 44.45

nice call.


As with equities, they were oversold, strong earnings to start brought them back, but there seems to be noise as the later earnings seem to falter a little.

That would be them fairly efficiently priced. This market at this day is neither overbought nor oversold.


The energy rotation from tech seems to be gathering steam as I figured.

BTE
CJ.TO
GTE
CPG

all with good gains over the last couple of weeks while the overall market has faltered.

bfw
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
After reviewing your oil company recommendations I did buy CPG and have made some dough on that one thanks


Good stuff! BTE has been the real outperformer lately as it appears heavy oil supplies are tight with the Venezuelan collapse.

I'm holding tight for now.

The other stock I keep buying is TH.to/THERF. The market is still clueless on them as I see their peak earnings at over $3 Canadian in a few years.

bfw
I wouldn't write off Baytex. It was really over-bought so needed a pullback.

BFW, I agree that CDN heavy oil is seeing an upsurge because of Venezuela, but not sure it's really benefiting BTE right now. Reading their Q1 report it's their Eagle Ford properties which are helping cash flow.

Their debt levels worry me still.

As for Crescent Point. I hold this dog. Last year I started to sell some for tax purposes and will continue to do so as needed. I hope management gets more than an earful today at their AGM, but not to the point of putting 4 Cation people on the board. 0.8% of the shares doesn't even come close to warrant that.
quote:
Originally posted by steve8:
I wouldn't write off Baytex. It was really over-bought so needed a pullback.

BFW, I agree that CDN heavy oil is seeing an upsurge because of Venezuela, but not sure it's really benefiting BTE right now. Reading their Q1 report it's their Eagle Ford properties which are helping cash flow.

Their debt levels worry me still.

As for Crescent Point. I hold this dog. Last year I started to sell some for tax purposes and will continue to do so as needed. I hope management gets more than an earful today at their AGM, but not to the point of putting 4 Cation people on the board. 0.8% of the shares doesn't even come close to warrant that.


Agreed.

BTE is up about 70% in a month and some are complaining of a 3.3% drop today?!?

Anyway, their heavy oil will benefit them big time going forward. Debt levels could easily be dealt with if oil prices continue up as I expect. They can always sell some Eagle Ford.

CPG is hated so will take longer to rise.

My TH.to/THERF broke out today on big volume to new highs. Should be more running room ahead Smile

Bfw
i made the safer bet and bought BP @ 39.

with an exit strategy at 46. I still can't see oil increasing yet another 15-20% from here (puts WTI @ ~ 80) but I could be wrong. High oil prices favor the big caps initially with the small caps to follow when oil gets REALLY high. But if you can see oil hitting another 15-20% rally, then by all means, the small caps mentioned would be good buys.

BP ~16% increase over a span of a month, happy to take profit and run.

might not get the big swings from the small caps, but at least i dont have to worry about 30% downside.
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
i made the safer bet and bought BP @ 39.

with an exit strategy at 46. I still can't see oil increasing yet another 15-20% from here (puts WTI @ ~ 80) but I could be wrong. High oil prices favor the big caps initially with the small caps to follow when oil gets REALLY high. But if you can see oil hitting another 15-20% rally, then by all means, the small caps mentioned would be good buys.

BP ~16% increase over a span of a month, happy to take profit and run.

might not get the big swings from the small caps, but at least i dont have to worry about 30% downside.


Glad you are making some money in the undervalued energy sector.

However, your statement about big vs small cap outperformance is not accurate given recent price action.

Typically, institutional money that wants some exposure to energy will hide out in the big names during a bear market. They will hide out in Suncor, Shell, BP etc.

Meanwhile, the overlevered small cap names such as a BTE will be shorted to oblivion.

Therein lies the opportunity once the bear flips.

Last month or so BTE is up 70% vs BP’s performance.

Bfw

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