Looks?  It's already in correction territory.  

Tho amusingly folks talk about how the 1966-1982 period in the market may never happen again.

We are now in similar phase of the market cycle.  1960-1965 saw very very h ealth gains in the market, then it stagnated for the next 16 or so year while struggling with insane amount of inflation.

Will it happen again?  No idea, but i do know for a mature market you don't pump more money and add to the deficit when the economy is good.

https://research.stlouisfed.or...and-lessons-learned/

Expansionary monetary policy brought on by massive tax cuts when times are good and natural unemployment at decades low.

Funny that the roles are now reversed and the fed is looking at this thinking the 70s might come back again where inflation starts sitting at all time highs.

You can only see why the Fed is hesitant to pause on the interest rate hikes.

However the Fed is not free of blame, t hey forget the second part of the lesson where price stability is first and foremost the most important thing for price stability, which leads to consumer confidence.

But just piss poor management all around during this administration.

I hope someone will realize that the US is not an episode of the apprentice, but i'm not holding my breath

Last edited by g-man

Brutal week.  And I won't be surprised if the freefall continues until trade issues with China are at least somewhat resolved.  Could be months, and a probable dive into bear territory. 

On the optimistic side, I picked up some RYU ('Respect Your Universe''), an athleisure clothing biz that looks alot like Lululemon in its early days. Seems to have a loyal and growing fan base, cool stores in hip shoppping districts and what the heck - it's 0.12 a share. 

vint posted:

Brutal week.  And I won't be surprised if the freefall continues until trade issues with China are at least somewhat resolved.  Could be months, and a probable dive into bear territory. 

On the optimistic side, I picked up some RYU ('Respect Your Universe''), an athleisure clothing biz that looks alot like Lululemon in its early days. Seems to have a loyal and growing fan base, cool stores in hip shoppping districts and what the heck - it's 0.12 a share. 

Brutal year overall. Market at a 13 month low. 

Where is the orange dump?

Well, we just had the worst week in the market in a decade, worst December since the Great Depression and the entire market is at a 14 month low.

Fret not, the Orange Dump is meeting with his senior advisors, Coulter and Limbaugh as we speak. Remember, Trump only hires the very best! 

This winning sure is getting old...

A fun chart to look at if we're talking about historical values.

Basically in 2018, there was no where to hide except Cash.

I'll let you guys build a story about the administration when there's no safe place to invest =)

That chart also highly suggests that with the cash that is coming out of liquid assets we are about to see some heavy inflation.  Correlate the chart to US inflationary data.  Not a given but highly correlated.  The fed is going to overshoot.

Ah, there's no causative effective between investment of assets to infllation.  There may be a coincidental correlation but i wouldn't use it to gamble on.  In essence, me and you taking our cash out and stuffing it under our matress is different then when the central banks around the world go doing the same thing.

The shrinking of hte money supply, usually leads to a deflationary scenario since there's less money going around, thereby making it worth more.  This causes asset classes to fall against the value of money since money's now worth more.

Heavy inflation comes from big governmetn deficits and huge spendings where the US just starts issuing more and more debt.  It gets exacerbated when we have a huge debt and go into recession, causing the central bank to be accommodative.   (roughly simplistic, but it's the gist of it!)

in the current market, I don't like much.  When Pres. Trump took office, the DOW was around 19,800.  It got up to 24,800 in one year (by 1/1/18).  Since then, it hasn't done much, and these tariffs are killing companies and will kill consumers.  It's about 25,150 as I write this on May 29, 2019.  So, since the beginning of 2018, it is only up 350 points or so.  Negligible. 

I got out of BYND back on the 17th. I was in for 5 days and a 35% profit. It sank like a stone immediately after that.  But in the past two days it's shot up 30+% based on some news about building a European manufacturing plant. 

Talk about volatile. You can't time the market, but this seems to have been an easy one to do some quick in-and-out trading and make substantial returns. I expect it'll sink again soon.

Stock symbol ERIC. Ericsson is a good play in these early stages of 5G deployment that is coming out. They will play a key role in the supply side of the industry.

IW

 I will go out on a limb and say I think Shopify (SHOP) will be a $1000 stock by 2025. It is currently at 370.  I got in at 108 about a year and a half ago, albeit very few shares. It certainly has been fun to watch. Anyone else own this?

IW

I just cam into some inherited cash... thinking of Apple.  Just heard that they and Goldman are teaming up to introduce a new type of pay as you go.  Also, none of our payment systems are in China as of yet are they?  Could this be the one?

Also thinking about Ford..

Time to revisit this thread.  Dow at around 24,500, back to April 2019 levels.  Will it continue going down?  Or is this the bottom?

Hard to tell what will happen with the panic over the Wuhan Flu and program trading.  For a virus that hardly affects 85% of the people who have contact with it, it sure is getting everyone freaking out.  It may take a few months before things settle out given the hysterics.

I"m liking anything that has a high amount on enforced margin selling with no rationale as to why they are off other than market dynamics. Things that have long term fixed cashflows and hard assets. 

Every year in the US around 30-50,000 people die of the flu.  We have a shot for the flu, which alot of people get, and some don't, and which isn't totally effective. The people most vulnerable are the elderly and otherwise infirm.  The symptoms are not that dissimilar to the symptoms associated with the Coronavirus.  The advice at the beginning of flu season is to stay home if you get it, drink alot of fluids, take tylenol to bring down a temperature if you have one, and rest.  Probably it's a good idea to wash your hands alot during flu season so you decrease the chances of getting it, and to avoid people who are sneezing and coughing.

So far, a couple dozen have died in the US from this new virus. A number of them were in a nursing home in Washington, and I presume were infirm. 

Despite the many flu deaths annually, the stock market doesn't freak, and the advice to avoid cruise ships and to have sports events with no fans in the stands doesn't happen.

Now, they say that around 2.5 or 3% of people who get coronavirus die because of it, and I don't know how that stands against the regular flu.  And, I'm not sure how they figure that out, because lots of people, apparently, are tested for the coronavirus due to exposure to someone else, test positive, and are asymptomatic.  Thus, I assume there are others out there who would test positive and are asymptomatic.

It's rather confusing to me.

 

irwin posted:

Every year in the US around 30-50,000 people die of the flu.  We have a shot for the flu, which alot of people get, and some don't, and which isn't totally effective. The people most vulnerable are the elderly and otherwise infirm.  The symptoms are not that dissimilar to the symptoms associated with the Coronavirus.  The advice at the beginning of flu season is to stay home if you get it, drink alot of fluids, take tylenol to bring down a temperature if you have one, and rest.  Probably it's a good idea to wash your hands alot during flu season so you decrease the chances of getting it, and to avoid people who are sneezing and coughing.

So far, a couple dozen have died in the US from this new virus. A number of them were in a nursing home in Washington, and I presume were infirm. 

Despite the many flu deaths annually, the stock market doesn't freak, and the advice to avoid cruise ships and to have sports events with no fans in the stands doesn't happen.

Now, they say that around 2.5 or 3% of people who get coronavirus die because of it, and I don't know how that stands against the regular flu.  And, I'm not sure how they figure that out, because lots of people, apparently, are tested for the coronavirus due to exposure to someone else, test positive, and are asymptomatic.  Thus, I assume there are others out there who would test positive and are asymptomatic.

It's rather confusing to me.

 

It's pretty straightforward. The Flu has a death rate of about 0.1% with about 1% of all Flu sufferers needing hospital care.

COVID-19 has at least 14% being "Severe" and needing hospital care and just under 5%  "exhibiting respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure". In other words 5% of people getting it even if they don't die will be affected in some way for probably the rest of their life.  

Mortality rate is between 2-3% of all cases. That is exceptionally weighted to older sufferers with people over 70 with a nearly 10% mortality rate and over 80 years old with a 15% mortality rate. 

The Flu has a R0 of about 1.3 which means that each person that has the Flu infects 1.3 other people. COVID-19 has an R0 of between 2-3. So it's roughly twice as contagious as the normal Flu. 

According to the CDC in this Flu season in the US there have been 34 million illnesses, 350,000 hospitalizations and 20,000 deaths, Put into COVID-19 terms that could be about 65 million people getting it, 9 million in the hospital because of it, 3 million with respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure because of it and 1.5 million dying of it. 

That's why it's a big deal. 

 

robsutherland posted:
irwin posted:

Every year in the US around 30-50,000 people die of the flu.  We have a shot for the flu, which alot of people get, and some don't, and which isn't totally effective. The people most vulnerable are the elderly and otherwise infirm.  The symptoms are not that dissimilar to the symptoms associated with the Coronavirus.  The advice at the beginning of flu season is to stay home if you get it, drink alot of fluids, take tylenol to bring down a temperature if you have one, and rest.  Probably it's a good idea to wash your hands alot during flu season so you decrease the chances of getting it, and to avoid people who are sneezing and coughing.

So far, a couple dozen have died in the US from this new virus. A number of them were in a nursing home in Washington, and I presume were infirm. 

Despite the many flu deaths annually, the stock market doesn't freak, and the advice to avoid cruise ships and to have sports events with no fans in the stands doesn't happen.

Now, they say that around 2.5 or 3% of people who get coronavirus die because of it, and I don't know how that stands against the regular flu.  And, I'm not sure how they figure that out, because lots of people, apparently, are tested for the coronavirus due to exposure to someone else, test positive, and are asymptomatic.  Thus, I assume there are others out there who would test positive and are asymptomatic.

It's rather confusing to me.

 

It's pretty straightforward. The Flu has a death rate of about 0.1% with about 1% of all Flu sufferers needing hospital care.

COVID-19 has at least 14% being "Severe" and needing hospital care and just under 5%  "exhibiting respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure". In other words 5% of people getting it even if they don't die will be affected in some way for probably the rest of their life.  

Mortality rate is between 2-3% of all cases. That is exceptionally weighted to older sufferers with people over 70 with a nearly 10% mortality rate and over 80 years old with a 15% mortality rate. 

The Flu has a R0 of about 1.3 which means that each person that has the Flu infects 1.3 other people. COVID-19 has an R0 of between 2-3. So it's roughly twice as contagious as the normal Flu. 

According to the CDC in this Flu season in the US there have been 34 million illnesses, 350,000 hospitalizations and 20,000 deaths, Put into COVID-19 terms that could be about 65 million people getting it, 9 million in the hospital because of it, 3 million with respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction/failure because of it and 1.5 million dying of it. 

That's why it's a big deal. 

Except that not everyone is being tested for COVID-19. We have no idea how many people are sitting at home with flu-like symptoms and haven't reported it. In which case, the mortality rate could be lower than what the CDC is reporting.

I'm not denying that it's a big deal, but the 2-3% mortality rate could be lower than that. Whether it's by a little or a lot, we don't know.

I don't think anyone has questioned it's at least an order of magnitude greater than dying of the flu. (That's a lot.) In addition I can vaccinate myself against the flu with various rates of success, but better than nothing. Even if I get the flu the vaccine often reduces the severity of it. Also I have the Tamiflu option. None of this is true of the Coronavirus.

I bought some ExxonMobil today. It's about half of its high for the year, and at this price, the dividend is around 8%. 

I should have my head examined.

thistlintom posted:

We are selling bonds and putting them into stocks.  Bond prices at all time high and stocks have dropped too much.

How is that working out so far this morning?

wineismylife posted:
thistlintom posted:

We are selling bonds and putting them into stocks.  Bond prices at all time high and stocks have dropped too much.

How is that working out so far this morning?

He probably thinks the market tickers are as fake as health concerns.

Did you know the Idiot in Chief, on Friday, talked about how his greatness caused the biggest one day rally in Wall Street history? Did you know he joked about holding press conferences five times a day to help the market? Did you know he sent some of his supporters (chumps) signed charts showing the gain? (Hope you got one Nappy.) Now again the market's in free fall. Will the Grifter in Chief take responsibility? When sexist pigs fly.

Just bought some ABBV at $76 for my long term hold portfolio. Dividend is 6% at that price and I believe more secure as it's Rx stock.

wineismylife posted:
thistlintom posted:

We are selling bonds and putting them into stocks.  Bond prices at all time high and stocks have dropped too much.

How is that working out so far this morning?

No problem, haven't executed on it yet.

Boeing. Went from $415 down to $97 today. They've had their problems lately, but there are only 2 airplane makers in the world....

irwin posted:

Every year in the US around 30-50,000 people die of the flu.  We have a shot for the flu, which alot of people get, and some don't, and which isn't totally effective. The people most vulnerable are the elderly and otherwise infirm.  The symptoms are not that dissimilar to the symptoms associated with the Coronavirus.  The advice at the beginning of flu season is to stay home if you get it, drink alot of fluids, take tylenol to bring down a temperature if you have one, and rest.  Probably it's a good idea to wash your hands alot during flu season so you decrease the chances of getting it, and to avoid people who are sneezing and coughing.

So far, a couple dozen have died in the US from this new virus. A number of them were in a nursing home in Washington, and I presume were infirm. 

Despite the many flu deaths annually, the stock market doesn't freak, and the advice to avoid cruise ships and to have sports events with no fans in the stands doesn't happen.

Now, they say that around 2.5 or 3% of people who get coronavirus die because of it, and I don't know how that stands against the regular flu.  And, I'm not sure how they figure that out, because lots of people, apparently, are tested for the coronavirus due to exposure to someone else, test positive, and are asymptomatic.  Thus, I assume there are others out there who would test positive and are asymptomatic.

It's rather confusing to me.

 

As the test for coronavirus Becomes more widely used the numerator will be much larger than the denominator ( death) Therefore the lethality rate will be lower than advertised https://forums.winespectator.c...01#10611126027138101

redknife posted:
irwin posted:

Every year in the US around 30-50,000 people die of the flu.  We have a shot for the flu, which alot of people get, and some don't, and which isn't totally effective. The people most vulnerable are the elderly and otherwise infirm.  The symptoms are not that dissimilar to the symptoms associated with the Coronavirus.  The advice at the beginning of flu season is to stay home if you get it, drink alot of fluids, take tylenol to bring down a temperature if you have one, and rest.  Probably it's a good idea to wash your hands alot during flu season so you decrease the chances of getting it, and to avoid people who are sneezing and coughing.

So far, a couple dozen have died in the US from this new virus. A number of them were in a nursing home in Washington, and I presume were infirm. 

Despite the many flu deaths annually, the stock market doesn't freak, and the advice to avoid cruise ships and to have sports events with no fans in the stands doesn't happen.

Now, they say that around 2.5 or 3% of people who get coronavirus die because of it, and I don't know how that stands against the regular flu.  And, I'm not sure how they figure that out, because lots of people, apparently, are tested for the coronavirus due to exposure to someone else, test positive, and are asymptomatic.  Thus, I assume there are others out there who would test positive and are asymptomatic.

It's rather confusing to me.

 

As the test for coronavirus Becomes more widely used the numerator will be much larger than the denominator ( death) Therefore the lethality rate will be lower than advertised https://forums.winespectator.c...01#10611126027138101

Backwards, or upside down.    The numerator is deaths; denominator is confirmed cases.  If confirmed cases increased, that deaths do not (or at a slower rate), the mortality rate goes down.  On March 12, there were 38 death and 1323 confirmed cases in the US  = 2.8% mortality.

Today, 285 deaths and 24,148 confirmed cases (what a difference only 10 days makes) = 1.2% mortality.

bomba503 posted:

Just bought some ABBV at $76 for my long term hold portfolio. Dividend is 6% at that price and I believe more secure as it's Rx stock.

I was looking at ABBV.  It's a bit pricey (but slipping),  Humira is not their cash-cow anymore. 

Are you (or anyone else here) looking at other pharma, such as MRNA, NVAX, INO?

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