quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
When it happens, I think we see a 15-20% correction with the amount of dumb money in the market now. Maybe Dow 20,000. I’ll be a buyer there and will probably go heavy on oil stocks at that time. We are ripe for a commodity rebound and I suspect that regardless of the market, oil will be a safe play.


i dont think so

North america just produces soo much damn oil and i dont see it slowing down with mr orange at the head.

that said, hard tangible commodities are always a nice spot to hide some money


The US produces just under 50% of its oil needs even after the shale revolution.

Plenty being imported on a daily basis.

Meanwhile, worldwide oil demand grows every year (rapidly lately) and companies have reduced investments globally over the past 3 years.

There is a reason WTI is up from a low of $26 to $65. The Saudis and Russians want it and shale cannot meet worldwide growth alone.

Bfw


I believe that the US is producing 10 MM bbls a day and importing only 2.5 MM bbls a day and overall is a net exporter of energy.
quote:
Originally posted by ThistlinTom:
I believe that the US is producing 10 MM bbls a day and importing only 2.5 MM bbls a day and overall is a net exporter of energy.


Your production number is correct, just recently surpassed the 10 MM bbls per day, but the imports are 8 MM bbls/day. That is the average of the past 4 weeks, which is down about 4% from the same period last year.

You guys need lots of heavy crude, but produce little. Enter Canada, Venezuela and Mexico.
quote:
Originally posted by steve8:
quote:
Originally posted by ThistlinTom:
I believe that the US is producing 10 MM bbls a day and importing only 2.5 MM bbls a day and overall is a net exporter of energy.


Your production number is correct, just recently surpassed the 10 MM bbls per day, but the imports are 8 MM bbls/day. That is the average of the past 4 weeks, which is down about 4% from the same period last year.

You guys need lots of heavy crude, but produce little. Enter Canada, Venezuela and Mexico.


Exactly. The Americas make alot more oil than generally given credit for. Oil prices may have been trading up but what's the possible upsidenin putting money in oil? I don't see oil going back to the 100+/barrel range anytime soon esp w markets coming down.
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by steve8:
quote:
Originally posted by ThistlinTom:
I believe that the US is producing 10 MM bbls a day and importing only 2.5 MM bbls a day and overall is a net exporter of energy.


Your production number is correct, just recently surpassed the 10 MM bbls per day, but the imports are 8 MM bbls/day. That is the average of the past 4 weeks, which is down about 4% from the same period last year.

You guys need lots of heavy crude, but produce little. Enter Canada, Venezuela and Mexico.


Exactly. The Americas make alot more oil than generally given credit for. Oil prices may have been trading up but what's the possible upsidenin putting money in oil? I don't see oil going back to the 100+/barrel range anytime soon esp w markets coming down.


Actually, the US is getting too much credit lately for its rising production.

The world uses about 100 million barrels per day. The US produces about 10 million or 10% of that.

The issue is production is declining in most other nations and OPEC is limiting supplies along with Russia. Venezuela is on the verge of chaos and almost 2 million barrels per day could be lost if they go offline.

The Permian alone (which is where production increases are coming from) will not be able to match world growth alone.

So $100...not this year...but WTI hitting $80 is a significant possibility. This during a time when oil equities are priced for lower levels. In fact, the energy index recently had its lowest level of market cap vs the overall index ever!

So, all oil equities need is for sentiment to change, shorts to cover and move on and they could see significant appreciation.

Bfw
Interesting take, that you think the world is acutally going on the up tick where as i think we're entering a softening cycle.

But yes, my rebuttal is simply a reflection of my belief in a down cycle in response to winetrooper, if you think the global economy still has alot of juice left then, my below analysis wouldnt apply.

But!

The Americas, not just the US has a significant amount of Oil supplies, production may only be the numbers you quoted but that clearly doesnt tell the story when oil prices go up. The supply in north america puts a very heavy downward cap on where the
price of oil can rise.

Alot of this has to do with OPEC + Russia agreeing to cut and Venezuela in a shit hole so they cant sell anything.

We're also starting to see that the North Americans ramping up production to the highest in 10 years, OPEC is starting to break @ the 65$ mark and have increased outputs in Jan. Russia has stated that they're going to start pumping more again too.

Add that to a future potential loss of usage when a larger majority of car manufacturers move towards direct electric engines all point to a limited upside to oil in the long run.

I'd say 75$ is the possibility and 80$ is the stretch. but with WTI @ 65$. 80$ only represents a 23% gain. That's a long holding period / risk for so little gain.


vs. the excellent recommendation of NKTR. 14% in 1 week.
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
Interesting take, that you think the world is acutally going on the up tick where as i think we're entering a softening cycle.

But yes, my rebuttal is simply a reflection of my belief in a down cycle in response to winetrooper, if you think the global economy still has alot of juice left then, my below analysis wouldnt apply.

But!

The Americas, not just the US has a significant amount of Oil supplies, production may only be the numbers you quoted but that clearly doesnt tell the story when oil prices go up. The supply in north america puts a very heavy downward cap on where the
price of oil can rise.

Alot of this has to do with OPEC + Russia agreeing to cut and Venezuela in a shit hole so they cant sell anything.

We're also starting to see that the North Americans ramping up production to the highest in 10 years, OPEC is starting to break @ the 65$ mark and have increased outputs in Jan. Russia has stated that they're going to start pumping more again too.

Add that to a future potential loss of usage when a larger majority of car manufacturers move towards direct electric engines all point to a limited upside to oil in the long run.

I'd say 75$ is the possibility and 80$ is the stretch. but with WTI @ 65$. 80$ only represents a 23% gain. That's a long holding period / risk for so little gain.


vs. the excellent recommendation of NKTR. 14% in 1 week.


So, I’ll stick to the numbers.

Exxon just projected an increase in demand by 20 million barrels per day until 2040 with stronger gains in early years due to EV replacement in later years.

Many think EV is penetrating now but oil use rises every year (I believe 2008 was the exception). Oil has many uses outside of personal transportation.

In a year or so, Gulf of Mexico production will start to drop off. As well, many legacy wells around the world continue their 4-6% decline per year. Decline never sleeps.

So, I think we’ll see just how much shale will be able to ramp up in 2019-2020 time frame and what price of oil will be needed. The interesting thing about shale is that decline rates can be as high as 70% in the first year. So, it is a bit of a treadmill in terms of adding production.

Finally, we have Saudi on side looking for a higher price to float Aramco. It’s like having the Fed on your side. Also, the spectre of Trump reintroducing sanctions to Iran.

The oil price may not have massive upside but I would argue the equities offer tremendous value here.

As for NKTR (it’s a good pick), I’ll stick will my rec of VLE.TO (PNWRF). It’s up from 42 cents to $5.78 in a few months and this week they will release a resource assessment that will likely be played up by their partner Statoil.

Bfw
I pretty much agree with Bfw, although US demand has been decreasing, world demand is continuing to increase, especially as the world economy strengthens. I don't see EV's impacting demand much for a while. Shale well production does have a high decline rate and companies are being a little more careful about overdrilling.
you guys are both talking mid-long term projections on oil.

Whereas i'm talking about alternatives to buying stocks if there is a market correction in the immediate short term.

you'll see the price of oil and oil companies are pretty tightly correlated with drops in the market especially with current inventory levels/production levels I gave. so I will restate, it's a very bad buy for so little potential upside in the short term as a hedge against stocks.
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
you guys are both talking mid-long term projections on oil.

Whereas i'm talking about alternatives to buying stocks if there is a market correction in the immediate short term.

you'll see the price of oil and oil companies are pretty tightly correlated with drops in the market especially with current inventory levels/production levels I gave. so I will restate, it's a very bad buy for so little potential upside in the short term as a hedge against stocks.



A couple thoughts

(1) SPY down about 5% last 5 days. WTI price essentially flat

(2) Total crude inventories in US were up by 56 million barrels in first 3 months last year. The projection for this year is minimal to no build.

So, short term, crude could (and has) definitely outperform the market. What would be really interesting is if at the end of the market correction, some sector rotation occurred and money flowed in to XLE and XOP.

Perhaps Goldman is anticipating this with their recent call for Brent to hit $82.

But, in the interim, if you expect a market correction.....just short the market.

Bfw
There's a decided difference in actually putting more money at risk by shorting the market to rotating money into different sectors though.

It would be interesting to see if money does rotate into oil stocks and oil holdings.

I feel smart money is going to move to cash as the dumb money has suddenly decided to finally enter the market that all the macro guys have been pining for for years.

As with the goldman report.

Well who can forget the https://www.marketwatch.com/st...-of-200-a-barrel-oil
quote:
Originally posted by wine+art:
I don’t have the energy to jump deep into this thread this morning, but I lost ($37k+) with my oil stocks on Friday.


Yikes.
quote:
Originally posted by irwin:
quote:
Originally posted by wine+art:
I don’t have the energy to jump deep into this thread this morning, but I lost ($37k+) with my oil stocks on Friday.


Yikes.


Dividends.... dividends... dividends... I keep telling myself. Cool
quote:
Originally posted by wine+art:
quote:
Originally posted by irwin:
quote:
Originally posted by wine+art:
I don’t have the energy to jump deep into this thread this morning, but I lost ($37k+) with my oil stocks on Friday.


Yikes.


Dividends.... dividends... dividends... I keep telling myself. Cool


cash is king ;-)
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by wine+art:
quote:
Originally posted by irwin:
quote:
Originally posted by wine+art:
I don’t have the energy to jump deep into this thread this morning, but I lost ($37k+) with my oil stocks on Friday.


Yikes.


Dividends.... dividends... dividends... I keep telling myself. Cool


cash is king ;-)



VLE new 52 week high in this horrific tape Smile

Bfw
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:

VLE new 52 week high in this horrific tape Smile

Bfw


heh,

I know literally 0 about canadian stocks and wouldnt even know where to begin looking into anything related to fundamental analysis on these small cap no news but go up 5% stocks =)

but if you got any more tips, let me know Cool
quote:
Originally posted by VinT:
Was that the bottom or just a dead cat bounce? Big Grin


i actually got 4 hours of sleep

sold off the morning highs

got lucky (tho not that lucky, lost a few thanks to merrill edge not letting me log in) and picked up disney in the afternoon then went back to sleep.

i'm going to sell first thing tomorrow morning =)

#cashisking
quote:
Originally posted by VinT:
Was that the bottom or just a dead cat bounce? Big Grin


$MM question, who the f@$&k really knows?

No indicators to say which way it will go.
I don't think we are there with sentiment yet. Market is still Goldilocks. Sentiment is still bullish but some worry building. Irrational exuberance is nigh however. That said, I think being in cash now isn't a bad thing. If you have to wait 2-6 months for the popping bubble.
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:

VLE new 52 week high in this horrific tape Smile

Bfw


heh,

I know literally 0 about canadian stocks and wouldnt even know where to begin looking into anything related to fundamental analysis on these small cap no news but go up 5% stocks =)

but if you got any more tips, let me know Cool


Well, VLE released the resource estimate last night.

Price targets have been moved close to $10 Canadian.

Between, you and me...this sells for no less than $20 and if not bought this year has a chance for $50-79 per share Smile

Bfw
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
Between, you and me...
Bfw


love this kind of advice regarding stocks that are up %4-500 in the past month
quote:
Originally posted by mangiare:
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
Between, you and me...
Bfw


love this kind of advice regarding stocks that are up %4-500 in the past month


Perhaps you should read back in the thread and realize I have been long the stock since 38 cents!

Bfw
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:

VLE new 52 week high in this horrific tape Smile

Bfw


heh,

I know literally 0 about canadian stocks and wouldnt even know where to begin looking into anything related to fundamental analysis on these small cap no news but go up 5% stocks =)

but if you got any more tips, let me know Cool


Well, VLE released the resource estimate last night.

Price targets have been moved close to $10 Canadian.

Between, you and me...this sells for no less than $20 and if not bought this year has a chance for $50-79 per share Smile

Bfw


Thanks Bfw...I was in 50% ago. I’ll continue holding.
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
What are the land holdings for VLE in Turkey? They must have bought up/leased tons of it for your valuation to be considered sane?


Also I note that VLE's unrisked (proven?)estimate of their gas there is over 10 Tcf, with an additional 5 Tcf risked (unproven?).

Pretty impressive because the nat gas production in the entire U.S. in the year 2014 was 13.5 Tcf. Add to this that Turkey has enormous shortages and therefore the price is multiples higher than in the U.S., and I'm a believer in your forecasts.
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
What are the land holdings for VLE in Turkey? They must have bought up/leased tons of it for your valuation to be considered sane?


Also I note that VLE's unrisked (proven?)estimate of their gas there is over 10 Tcf, with an additional 5 Tcf risked (unproven?).

Pretty impressive because the nat gas production in the entire U.S. in the year 2014 was 13.5 Tcf. Add to this that Turkey has enormous shortages and therefore the price is multiples higher than in the U.S., and I'm a believer in your forecasts.


http://hydracapital.ca/hydra-blog.html

If you own, you should read all of his blogs on the stock. He is the one who introduced to the name and is more knowledgeable than most of the analysts out there.

Big spike and sell off late. They may announce a financing sooner than later.

Bfw
heh not saying they aren't legit,

but that sounds totally like a boiler room type of trade.

hopeuflly he's more correct than goldman predicting Brent @ 80$/barrel in the short term
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
If you read the background it definitely sounds too good to be true. If it was that good it would already be $20 a share.


I guess that is why Statoil, the 11th biggest publicly traded oil company in the world, has decided to ante up for another well and advance the drilling further in Q3.

There’s clearly risk but “too good to be true” seems intellectually lazy to me.

Anyway, good luck to all in this very choppy market.

Bfw
just like how how oil is going to reach 80$?

reading and blindly believing goldman feels intellectually lazy to me =)
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
If you read the background it definitely sounds too good to be true. If it was that good it would already be $20 a share.


I guess that is why Statoil, the 11th biggest publicly traded oil company in the world, has decided to ante up for another well and advance the drilling further in Q3.

There’s clearly risk but “too good to be true” seems intellectually lazy to me.

Anyway, good luck to all in this very choppy market.

Bfw


That’s why I bought a little more Bfw. I’m pretty wary of things that seem pie in the sky though....because I’ve played in the small biotech space which is full of shysters and con-men. I’m sure they have played games in small oil patches since they found black stuff oozing out of the ground too.
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
oh and nvda


Great. If I would have bought it back at 220, it would have reported -11% growth and dropped 40. But no.

Oh well. Maybe it will dip with the market more like AMZN has been doing.
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
oh and nvda


Great. If I would have bought it back at 220, it would have reported -11% growth and dropped 40. But no.

Oh well. Maybe it will dip with the market more like AMZN has been doing.


i think you're missing something =)

242.77 +25.25 (11.61%)
After hours: 5:04PM EST
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
just like how how oil is going to reach 80$?

reading and blindly believing goldman feels intellectually lazy to me =)


Easy there Smile

Perhaps we should discuss the NKTR that you were crowing about lol! $93 to $73 in a few short days. While VLE is up over 10%...hmmm.

I am not directly long oil as I mentioned. I am long some oil equities. They are
mostly down in the correction with everything else. I believe you will see some sector rotation once the S&P and Nasdaq finish their correction. That remains to be seen...

As for Goldman, I am always wary of their calls...I’ve been investing for a long time...but I do fundamental research on the oil markets and I believe you will see them tighter by the end of the year.

Bfw
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
just like how how oil is going to reach 80$?

reading and blindly believing goldman feels intellectually lazy to me =)


Easy there Smile

Perhaps we should discuss the NKTR that you were crowing about lol! $93 to $73 in a few short days. While VLE is up over 10%...hmmm.

I am not directly long oil as I mentioned. I am long some oil equities. They are
mostly down in the correction with everything else. I believe you will see some sector rotation once the S&P and Nasdaq finish their correction. That remains to be seen...

As for Goldman, I am always wary of their calls...I’ve been investing for a long time...but I do fundamental research on the oil markets and I believe you will see them tighter by the end of the year.

Bfw


oh i've been selling every single gain/pop i've got this week. so NKTR was stilla great trade since winetrooper suggested it at 72$ and that was a nice 1 week 10% pick up.

I have 0 reason to trust any rally.

but i refuse to go outright short as i dont trust the downside either.

my goal is to try and close out all positions i enter in the day and exit them first thing in the morning.

anyhow i just found the goldman research amusing. They were harping on tuesday to go fully back in and buy all dips.

my big loser this week, unforutnately is BAC. I was rotating some stuff into financials because i'm hoping raising rates will boost bank profits and dividends in the long run. unfortunately, rotated in too soon. very sad.
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
just like how how oil is going to reach 80$?

reading and blindly believing goldman feels intellectually lazy to me =)


Easy there Smile

Perhaps we should discuss the NKTR that you were crowing about lol! $93 to $73 in a few short days. While VLE is up over 10%...hmmm.

I am not directly long oil as I mentioned. I am long some oil equities. They are
mostly down in the correction with everything else. I believe you will see some sector rotation once the S&P and Nasdaq finish their correction. That remains to be seen...

As for Goldman, I am always wary of their calls...I’ve been investing for a long time...but I do fundamental research on the oil markets and I believe you will see them tighter by the end of the year.

Bfw


oh i've been selling every single gain/pop i've got this week. so NKTR was stilla great trade since winetrooper suggested it at 72$ and that was a nice 1 week 10% pick up.

I have 0 reason to trust any rally.

but i refuse to go outright short as i dont trust the downside either.

my goal is to try and close out all positions i enter in the day and exit them first thing in the morning.

anyhow i just found the goldman research amusing. They were harping on tuesday to go fully back in and buy all dips.

my big loser this week, unforutnately is BAC. I was rotating some stuff into financials because i'm hoping raising rates will boost bank profits and dividends in the long run. unfortunately, rotated in too soon. very sad.


NKTR is a very long hold for me. So is SGEN.

As for everything else, I’ve closed out most of it. I am now convinced we see another 10% correction/stagnation for a quarter before rising up. I can’t help but think that the end of the low interest rate party could get messy. That might in itself be the Black Swan, even though it seems “normal” and “expected.”

Opportunity will knock soon enough.

I am however curious about emerging markets and commodities for Bfw’s sector rotation. And yes g-man, the banks....how do they not win?
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
just like how how oil is going to reach 80$?

reading and blindly believing goldman feels intellectually lazy to me =)


Easy there Smile

Perhaps we should discuss the NKTR that you were crowing about lol! $93 to $73 in a few short days. While VLE is up over 10%...hmmm.

I am not directly long oil as I mentioned. I am long some oil equities. They are
mostly down in the correction with everything else. I believe you will see some sector rotation once the S&P and Nasdaq finish their correction. That remains to be seen...

As for Goldman, I am always wary of their calls...I’ve been investing for a long time...but I do fundamental research on the oil markets and I believe you will see them tighter by the end of the year.

Bfw


oh i've been selling every single gain/pop i've got this week. so NKTR was stilla great trade since winetrooper suggested it at 72$ and that was a nice 1 week 10% pick up.

I have 0 reason to trust any rally.

but i refuse to go outright short as i dont trust the downside either.

my goal is to try and close out all positions i enter in the day and exit them first thing in the morning.

anyhow i just found the goldman research amusing. They were harping on tuesday to go fully back in and buy all dips.

my big loser this week, unforutnately is BAC. I was rotating some stuff into financials because i'm hoping raising rates will boost bank profits and dividends in the long run. unfortunately, rotated in too soon. very sad.


NKTR is a very long hold for me. So is SGEN.

As for everything else, I’ve closed out most of it. I am now convinced we see another 10% correction/stagnation for a quarter before rising up. I can’t help but think that the end of the low interest rate party could get messy. That might in itself be the Black Swan, even though it seems “normal” and “expected.”

Opportunity will knock soon enough.

I am however curious about emerging markets and commodities for Bfw’s sector rotation. And yes g-man, the banks....how do they not win?


Yes, I think we could see another 10% down in US markets as well.

I also don’t touch long term holdings.

As for sector rotation, the key will be keeping an eye on which sectors come off the bottom (whenever it arrives) better. I think another key will be to see the US dollar index fall.


Interesting times indeed....

Bfw
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
just like how how oil is going to reach 80$?

reading and blindly believing goldman feels intellectually lazy to me =)


Easy there Smile

Perhaps we should discuss the NKTR that you were crowing about lol! $93 to $73 in a few short days. While VLE is up over 10%...hmmm.

I am not directly long oil as I mentioned. I am long some oil equities. They are
mostly down in the correction with everything else. I believe you will see some sector rotation once the S&P and Nasdaq finish their correction. That remains to be seen...

As for Goldman, I am always wary of their calls...I’ve been investing for a long time...but I do fundamental research on the oil markets and I believe you will see them tighter by the end of the year.

Bfw


oh i've been selling every single gain/pop i've got this week. so NKTR was stilla great trade since winetrooper suggested it at 72$ and that was a nice 1 week 10% pick up.

I have 0 reason to trust any rally.

but i refuse to go outright short as i dont trust the downside either.

my goal is to try and close out all positions i enter in the day and exit them first thing in the morning.

anyhow i just found the goldman research amusing. They were harping on tuesday to go fully back in and buy all dips.

my big loser this week, unforutnately is BAC. I was rotating some stuff into financials because i'm hoping raising rates will boost bank profits and dividends in the long run. unfortunately, rotated in too soon. very sad.


NKTR is a very long hold for me. So is SGEN.

As for everything else, I’ve closed out most of it. I am now convinced we see another 10% correction/stagnation for a quarter before rising up. I can’t help but think that the end of the low interest rate party could get messy. That might in itself be the Black Swan, even though it seems “normal” and “expected.”

Opportunity will knock soon enough.

I am however curious about emerging markets and commodities for Bfw’s sector rotation. And yes g-man, the banks....how do they not win?


Yes, I think we could see another 10% down in US markets as well.

I also don’t touch long term holdings.


As for sector rotation, the key will be keeping an eye on which sectors come off the bottom (whenever it arrives) better. I think another key will be to see the US dollar index fall.


Interesting times indeed....

Bfw


Yep...I'll keep increasing my position in VOO. Stay the course, gents.

If VNQ (REIT ETF) increases their industrial & multifamily shares (especially PLD), I'm long there too.
quote:
Originally posted by Shane T.:


Yep...I'll keep increasing my position in VOO. Stay the course, gents.

If VNQ (REIT ETF) increases their industrial & multifamily shares (especially PLD), I'm long there too.


lol you talking to jack??
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by Shane T.:


Yep...I'll keep increasing my position in VOO. Stay the course, gents.

If VNQ (REIT ETF) increases their industrial & multifamily shares (especially PLD), I'm long there too.


lol you talking to jack??


Come at me, bro! Lol!!!

If I'm down on VOO by Tahoma 4.0, the Krug is on me. Wanna take that bet?

That is, if VOO is below today's close ($236.79)...
quote:
Originally posted by Shane T.:
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by Shane T.:


Yep...I'll keep increasing my position in VOO. Stay the course, gents.

If VNQ (REIT ETF) increases their industrial & multifamily shares (especially PLD), I'm long there too.


lol you talking to jack??


Come at me, bro! Lol!!!

If I'm down on VOO by Tahoma 4.0, the Krug is on me. Wanna take that bet?

That is, if VOO is below today's close ($236.79)...


it's not about being up

but by how much, even more so as we get older ;-)
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by Shane T.:
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by Shane T.:


Yep...I'll keep increasing my position in VOO. Stay the course, gents.

If VNQ (REIT ETF) increases their industrial & multifamily shares (especially PLD), I'm long there too.


lol you talking to jack??


Come at me, bro! Lol!!!

If I'm down on VOO by Tahoma 4.0, the Krug is on me. Wanna take that bet?

That is, if VOO is below today's close ($236.79)...


it's not about being up

but by how much, even more so as we get older ;-)


And...that's what she said.
OLMM is ripe for a good surge in the coming months if their device gets FDA approval, which I think it will. $1.22 today.

IW
JNUG loaded up near the low on Friday. Could have a bit more to run before I take the profit and go the other way.

All losses recovered from last couple weeks and then some
quote:
Originally posted by bomba503:
JNUG loaded up near the low on Friday. Could have a bit more to run before I take the profit and go the other way.

All losses recovered from last couple weeks and then some


posting recs after they've run up 14% in a day is not my idea of a good rec!!

it's like those bums who drink a wine, dont share with you, then tell you how great it was!
Ok I'll tell you when I sell and go JDST. It trades in a nice range and I've been riding it up and down for a while. Occasionally I get stuck in my trade for longer than I like but it's been a great run. And up around 25% since FridaySmile
I bought some stock today in Square (SQ).
Don't buy it because I did. It seems like it is on the way up and is supposed to announced good earnings (so the rumor is) shortly. Morgan Stanley has an unfavorable view of it.

It will either go up, go down, or stay the same, unless I am totally wrong about it.
quote:
Originally posted by irwin:
I bought some stock today in Square (SQ).
Don't buy it because I did. It seems like it is on the way up and is supposed to announced good earnings (so the rumor is) shortly. Morgan Stanley has an unfavorable view of it.

It will either go up, go down, or stay the same, unless I am totally wrong about it.


I also purchased some within the past month or so along with an equal amount of Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM). I consider both medium term holds.
I've been on the SQ roller coaster since August. And now, in typical market fashion, a positive quarterly earnings report has led to a drop in share price. At least after hours - tomorrow is another day.
Sept 2018 and Jan 2019 GE calls. A small wager that Mr. Buffett will have taken an interest by then.
quote:
Originally posted by VinT:
Sept 2018 and Jan 2019 GE calls. A small wager that Mr. Buffett will have taken an interest by then.


for what ever is left of GE then.
Anything to do with South Africa and its resource access will be skyrocketing in value with the new political climate that is about to beset it. Precious metals, rare earth minerals, domestic mining companies will all benefit from the imminent disruptions; it's going to be crazy over there!
quote:
Originally posted by Captain Cancun:
Anything to do with South Africa and its resource access will be skyrocketing in value with the new political climate that is about to beset it. Precious metals, rare earth minerals, domestic mining companies will all benefit from the imminent disruptions; it's going to be crazy over there!

I believe the continent of Africa is now a wholly owned subsidiary of China.
quote:
Originally posted by VinT:
Trade wars are good, and easy to win.


He went to Wharton? Must have been asleep in class a good bit.
quote:
Originally posted by VinT:
Trade wars are good, and easy to win.


See, you are not focused on the now 26 people whom have left his administration in the first 13 months, or the 5 guilty pleas to federal crimes and more currently under indictment within his administration, or the investigations of both his daughter and son-in-law and not to mention this reality TV on guns this week that was LOL funny.

That said, yes, he is the only person that thinks trade wars will benefit America or anyone for that matter.

What a kangaroo court at its best.
Back to stocks.
Under Armour seems to have bottomed out...maybe.
I sold Celgene about a week ago, and it dropped about 8 or 9% thereafter. If I were a day trader, I'd give that a shot, but I'm not.
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
just like how how oil is going to reach 80$?

reading and blindly believing goldman feels intellectually lazy to me =)


Easy there Smile

Perhaps we should discuss the NKTR that you were crowing about lol! $93 to $73 in a few short days. While VLE is up over 10%...hmmm.

I am not directly long oil as I mentioned. I am long some oil equities. They are
mostly down in the correction with everything else. I believe you will see some sector rotation once the S&P and Nasdaq finish their correction. That remains to be seen...

As for Goldman, I am always wary of their calls...I’ve been investing for a long time...but I do fundamental research on the oil markets and I believe you will see them tighter by the end of the year.

Bfw


oh i've been selling every single gain/pop i've got this week. so NKTR was stilla great trade since winetrooper suggested it at 72$ and that was a nice 1 week 10% pick up.

I have 0 reason to trust any rally.

but i refuse to go outright short as i dont trust the downside either.

my goal is to try and close out all positions i enter in the day and exit them first thing in the morning.

anyhow i just found the goldman research amusing. They were harping on tuesday to go fully back in and buy all dips.

my big loser this week, unforutnately is BAC. I was rotating some stuff into financials because i'm hoping raising rates will boost bank profits and dividends in the long run. unfortunately, rotated in too soon. very sad.


NKTR is a very long hold for me. So is SGEN.

As for everything else, I’ve closed out most of it. I am now convinced we see another 10% correction/stagnation for a quarter before rising up. I can’t help but think that the end of the low interest rate party could get messy. That might in itself be the Black Swan, even though it seems “normal” and “expected.”

Opportunity will knock soon enough.

I am however curious about emerging markets and commodities for Bfw’s sector rotation. And yes g-man, the banks....how do they not win?


NKTR - great data.

Market pushing it way up.

Congrats!

Bfw
quote:
Originally posted by VinT:
I've been on the SQ roller coaster since August. And now, in typical market fashion, a positive quarterly earnings report has led to a drop in share price. At least after hours - tomorrow is another day.


Good day today for SQ!
quote:
Originally posted by sunnylea57:
I'm still big on Broadridge (BR). Up 17% since mid-November, despite the market turmoil this past month.

Now up 21% since mid-November. On a steady climb for the past 5 years. Looking at the 6 month graph, it's like someone dropped a bowling ball on the graph at the beginning of February and two weeks later it bounced back up onto the same relentless trajectory.
Th.to/THERF

They just had their HIV drug approved by the FDA.

I’ve held for years (first shares now 30 baggers Smile)

Anyway, I still think there is plenty of upside because the stock is not well known.

Bfw
man i missed alot of good price movement going on vacation and not even looking!

portfolio regained all losses and then made a few!

I think i'm going to slowly go to 50-60% cash again at these levels and then just wait and see if fellow forumites have better stock hook ups =)
I like Physicians Realty Trust ("DOC") on the dip. Excellent portfolio, lease structures/ tenants, management, and dividend. Long term hold.
quote:
Originally posted by Shane T.:
I like Physicians Realty Trust ("DOC") on the dip. Excellent portfolio, lease structures/ tenants, management, and dividend. Long term hold.


what's interesting about REITs is how much the new tax laws benefit large real estate owners.

interesting space to look at esp if the management is strong.
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by Shane T.:
I like Physicians Realty Trust ("DOC") on the dip. Excellent portfolio, lease structures/ tenants, management, and dividend. Long term hold.


what's interesting about REITs is how much the new tax laws benefit large real estate owners.

interesting space to look at esp if the management is strong.


You got it, bro. Great news for my industry.

I also like the cold-storage space right now. Huge space shortage + demand for last-mile deliveries is a great recipe here. Americold ("COLD") just IPO'd this year. That one looks promising.
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
just like how how oil is going to reach 80$?

reading and blindly believing goldman feels intellectually lazy to me =)


So, do you still think oil can’t reach $80 this year?

Brent is already at $73 or so.

The energy bull is starting to snort Smile

Bfw
quote:
Originally posted by Shane T.:
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by Shane T.:
I like Physicians Realty Trust ("DOC") on the dip. Excellent portfolio, lease structures/ tenants, management, and dividend. Long term hold.


what's interesting about REITs is how much the new tax laws benefit large real estate owners.

interesting space to look at esp if the management is strong.


You got it, bro. Great news for my industry.

I also like the cold-storage space right now. Huge space shortage + demand for last-mile deliveries is a great recipe here. Americold ("COLD") just IPO'd this year. That one looks promising.


Brookfield has got into this space as well (through Nova Cold) and they are in my mind some of the smartest money in the world.
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
just like how how oil is going to reach 80$?

reading and blindly believing goldman feels intellectually lazy to me =)


So, do you still think oil can’t reach $80 this year?

Brent is already at $73 or so.

The energy bull is starting to snort Smile

Bfw


we were talking about WTI
not brent.

WTI, last I check is still sitting at 64?

even so, you needed to thank syria to even get at those levels.

personally, I went long BP stock down at 38$ when WTI was sitting at 59.

good long term, good dividends and strongest position out of the big oil co.s

and i'll quote myself back in early feb
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
I'd say 75$ is the possibility and 80$ is the stretch. but with WTI @ 65$. 80$ only represents a 23% gain. That's a long holding period / risk for so little gain.


i'd say i'm pretty spot on.
Bought JDST at $47 today. Still a good buy. Should pop nicely once 45's latest tweets are recognized as more of the same
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
just like how how oil is going to reach 80$?

reading and blindly believing goldman feels intellectually lazy to me =)


So, do you still think oil can’t reach $80 this year?

Brent is already at $73 or so.

The energy bull is starting to snort Smile

Bfw


we were talking about WTI
not brent.

WTI, last I check is still sitting at 64?

even so, you needed to thank syria to even get at those levels.

personally, I went long BP stock down at 38$ when WTI was sitting at 59.

good long term, good dividends and strongest position out of the big oil co.s

and i'll quote myself back in early feb
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
I'd say 75$ is the possibility and 80$ is the stretch. but with WTI @ 65$. 80$ only represents a 23% gain. That's a long holding period / risk for so little gain.


i'd say i'm pretty spot on.


WTI at $64?!?

WTI hit a 3 year high today and is currently trading just south of $67.

The best part is that most people think this is all about Syria. That is mainstream news. They don’t really look in to inventory levels and study the lack of a shoulder season in the US this year.

Years of underinvestment in oil exploration have set the stage for a boom cycle in oil price. If inventories were not tight, Syrian news would have zero effect on WTI. We saw this all along in 2015-2017 whenever there were outages in Nigeria etc or issues in the Middle East.

Everyone has said energy is dead for years now and oil (WTI) has rallied from a low of $26 to $67. That’s pretty substantial and indicative of a bull market.

Finally, I (and most) play equities that are very levered to the price of oil so a rise to $75 or $80 will lead to large equity price gains from depressed levels.

Risk reward in the space is excellent.

Stick to the big companies if you must but way more bang for the buck in the smaller E&P.

Bfw
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
Give us some names please


It should be like shooting fish in a barrel.

Here are a few you can research:

CPG, BTE, CVE, DNR, REN

BTW, I don’t mean to sound abrasive or rude but I just hate how the media seems to be misleading us when inventories are crashing.

Bfw
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
Give us some names please


It should be like shooting fish in a barrel.

Here are a few you can research:

CPG, BTE, CVE, DNR, REN

BTW, I don’t mean to sound abrasive or rude but I just hate how the media seems to be misleading us when inventories are crashing.

Bfw


your posts do sound like a Crazy Eddie sales pitch at times =)


I checked some of the stocks you had there.

if you had bought in when we first chatted back in feb 2nd, you would have sat at an average loss of roughly 11% until, literally, yesterday where you broke even.

I won't argue mainstream news vs those in the know news, but it's a little difficult to subscribe to the "commodity markets are so inefficient" that there's is a misprice of a commodity by a significant amount.

but keep the tips coming, always enjoy reading contrarian views to keep my thoughts in check.
I really wish I would have continued playing the volatility in the OIL ETF. I could have bought cycled twice now from the mid-high 6.50 area and sold again around 7.30-7.40. It is like clockwork again. That is probably what I will do if we get another drop before summer.
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
Give us some names please


It should be like shooting fish in a barrel.

Here are a few you can research:

CPG, BTE, CVE, DNR, REN

BTW, I don’t mean to sound abrasive or rude but I just hate how the media seems to be misleading us when inventories are crashing.

Bfw


your posts do sound like a Crazy Eddie sales pitch at times =)


I checked some of the stocks you had there.

if you had bought in when we first chatted back in feb 2nd, you would have sat at an average loss of roughly 11% until, literally, yesterday where you broke even.

I won't argue mainstream news vs those in the know news, but it's a little difficult to subscribe to the "commodity markets are so inefficient" that there's is a misprice of a commodity by a significant amount.

but keep the tips coming, always enjoy reading contrarian views to keep my thoughts in check.


I only hold a couple of the ones I listed. I’m still building my positions in them. I hold many others listed such as CJ.to which is still paying me 10% a year in divvies while I wait for more gains in the SP.

Thanks for the tip...however.

Let me know if you can beat my 90% overall portfolio gain from last year Smile

Crazy Eddie over and out....back to studying another new 3 year high for oil despite positive news on Syria :;

As for the commodity being mispriced....I said no such thing...I said it is evidently going higher sooner than most think.

As for the equities being mispriced....yes they are insanely mispriced.

Bfw

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