quote:
Originally posted by snipes:
quote:
Originally posted by Italian Wino:
Canopy at US$31 today.

IW


Crazy huh? Up 17% just today. Makes me wonder how crazy it will continue to get over the next six months if nothing changes with the legalization expectation.


one could argue, that if you were very keen on legalization taht the best bets would be the big boys like RJ Reynolds or Altria.

cuz once the sleeping giant comes around...
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by snipes:
quote:
Originally posted by Italian Wino:
Canopy at US$31 today.

IW


Crazy huh? Up 17% just today. Makes me wonder how crazy it will continue to get over the next six months if nothing changes with the legalization expectation.


one could argue, that if you were very keen on legalization taht the best bets would be the big boys like RJ Reynolds or Altria.

cuz once the sleeping giant comes around...


I agree with you g-man in a sense. When I saw Constellation brands purchase a 10% position in Canopy that's when I put my $ where my mouth is. No idea what RJ's Canadian tobacco plantations look like and whether they would retool, but American pot investment vs. Canadian are two different animals IMO and Sessions proved that again last week.
quote:
Originally posted by snipes:
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by snipes:
quote:
Originally posted by Italian Wino:
Canopy at US$31 today.

IW


Crazy huh? Up 17% just today. Makes me wonder how crazy it will continue to get over the next six months if nothing changes with the legalization expectation.


one could argue, that if you were very keen on legalization taht the best bets would be the big boys like RJ Reynolds or Altria.

cuz once the sleeping giant comes around...


I agree with you g-man in a sense. When I saw Constellation brands purchase a 10% position in Canopy that's when I put my $ where my mouth is. No idea what RJ's Canadian tobacco plantations look like and whether they would retool, but American pot investment vs. Canadian are two different animals IMO and Sessions proved that again last week.


well there's also a matter of one country being 18x richer ;-)
Thanks for the tip on PNWRF. I did buy a smidge and it is starting to perk up again.

I’ve done fantastic the past two months on AMZN (which I plan to hold until the economy shows signs of turning over), BOTZ, and NVDA, as well as swing trading pot stocks as they gyrate with the uncertainty here.

Really wanted to go long on OIL etf after successfully swing trading it the past two years as it moved in a channel, but now it shows no sign of correcting and is up and to the right. For that reason, I’ve bought some under-loved shale plays that have fixed their balance sheets and pay good divvies. Favorite is TRGP.
For any biotech people, SGEN and NKTR are ripe for long term holds. I know a guy who works in that space and he feels strongly that SGEN and NKTR are takeout ripened and could be doubles this year or next. Both have impressive products in circulation and some income along with good pipelines.
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
For any biotech people, SGEN and NKTR are ripe for long term holds. I know a guy who works in that space and he feels strongly that SGEN and NKTR are takeout ripened and could be doubles this year or next. Both have impressive products in circulation and some income along with good pipelines.


Yeah...PNWRF continue up Smile

I agree that both these biotechs look like doubles from here.

I’m playing in some smaller names looking for multi-baggers (with higher risk obviously).

Bfw
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
For any biotech people, SGEN and NKTR are ripe for long term holds. I know a guy who works in that space and he feels strongly that SGEN and NKTR are takeout ripened and could be doubles this year or next. Both have impressive products in circulation and some income along with good pipelines.


Yeah...PNWRF continue up Smile

I agree that both these biotechs look like doubles from here.

I’m playing in some smaller names looking for multi-baggers (with higher risk obviously).

Bfw


Which small bios?
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
For any biotech people, SGEN and NKTR are ripe for long term holds. I know a guy who works in that space and he feels strongly that SGEN and NKTR are takeout ripened and could be doubles this year or next. Both have impressive products in circulation and some income along with good pipelines.


Yeah...PNWRF continue up Smile

I agree that both these biotechs look like doubles from here.

I’m playing in some smaller names looking for multi-baggers (with higher risk obviously).

Bfw


Which small bios?


TH.to (THERF) - They have a parternship for a new HIV drug (Ibalizumab) that should be approved by the FDA shortly. I have peak earnings for them at over $2 in 2020. Note that I’ve held this one since 30 cents and am hopeful it takes on a trajectory like JAZZ.

Bti.v (BIOAF) - Riskier. They have technology to transport meds across the blood brain barrier. The company was previously mismanaged but now has a whole new management and board. They’ll need to raise capital but they’re priced like a cheap option at the moment anyway.

Bfw
Thanks...my friend did me a solid on NKTR one to the tune of $20/share and growing. I'm probably going to buy a little more SGEN too at these prices. They have a lot going on and a good drug at market.

Also very glad I went heavy on NVDA and AMZN this year. Just big time growth. I'm going to probably dump NVDA shortly though. Very high turbulence and a 15% gain isn't something to laugh at.

g-man: what do you think of the aging bull? Short of a black swan, how much "legs" are left in this OLD bull market?
i'm in a, take profit when i make a decent chunk, then sit on the side lines and let the world pass me by.

I was ~95-99% invested in stocks up until a month ago.

I'm down to ~60% in stocks unless there's an occasional stock that someone mentions and the #'s work out after looking into the co, in which case I'll move the cash I have sitting on the side lines into play for short term.

so nktr i'm out. Got in monday picked up those great gains monday and today. Out.

a majority of the stocks i currently sit on are consumer staples and big banks. I figure larger cap blue chips might go down but they still pay a dividend typically.

my personal hope is for a 5-10% correction before getting back in, but i've been saying that for the past month and missed out on some gains since i went to so much cash.

i still contribute income into SPY funds regardless as I consider that just better than putting money in a bank.

What i did go into though is large cap china stocks like tencent. They have so much cash sitting around and are just buying up everything, I'm hoping they take over all of china =). The returns for asian stocks so far have far outpaced US stocks.

TLBig GrinR, I'm sitting on a bunch of cash and not as sure as I was last year that the bull market had more to go.
When it happens, I think we see a 15-20% correction with the amount of dumb money in the market now. Maybe Dow 20,000. I’ll be a buyer there and will probably go heavy on oil stocks at that time. We are ripe for a commodity rebound and I suspect that regardless of the market, oil will be a safe play.
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
When it happens, I think we see a 15-20% correction with the amount of dumb money in the market now. Maybe Dow 20,000. I’ll be a buyer there and will probably go heavy on oil stocks at that time. We are ripe for a commodity rebound and I suspect that regardless of the market, oil will be a safe play.


i dont think so

North america just produces soo much damn oil and i dont see it slowing down with mr orange at the head.

that said, hard tangible commodities are always a nice spot to hide some money
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
When it happens, I think we see a 15-20% correction with the amount of dumb money in the market now. Maybe Dow 20,000. I’ll be a buyer there and will probably go heavy on oil stocks at that time. We are ripe for a commodity rebound and I suspect that regardless of the market, oil will be a safe play.


I’ve been accumulating some oil stocks since last year. It really is slow going from them but oil prices have risen significantly and the equities have not followed yet....

The Bloom seems to be finally coming off cryptocurrencies and weed stocks are taking a much needed breather. Some of that money should eventually find its way to the underinvested oil sector.

It’s not often that you can find stable small companies with 9-10% yields (CJ.to) but an energy bear can do that....

Bfw
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
When it happens, I think we see a 15-20% correction with the amount of dumb money in the market now. Maybe Dow 20,000. I’ll be a buyer there and will probably go heavy on oil stocks at that time. We are ripe for a commodity rebound and I suspect that regardless of the market, oil will be a safe play.


i dont think so

North america just produces soo much damn oil and i dont see it slowing down with mr orange at the head.

that said, hard tangible commodities are always a nice spot to hide some money


The US produces just under 50% of its oil needs even after the shale revolution.

Plenty being imported on a daily basis.

Meanwhile, worldwide oil demand grows every year (rapidly lately) and companies have reduced investments globally over the past 3 years.

There is a reason WTI is up from a low of $26 to $65. The Saudis and Russians want it and shale cannot meet worldwide growth alone.

Bfw
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by WineTrooper:
When it happens, I think we see a 15-20% correction with the amount of dumb money in the market now. Maybe Dow 20,000. I’ll be a buyer there and will probably go heavy on oil stocks at that time. We are ripe for a commodity rebound and I suspect that regardless of the market, oil will be a safe play.


i dont think so

North america just produces soo much damn oil and i dont see it slowing down with mr orange at the head.

that said, hard tangible commodities are always a nice spot to hide some money


The US produces just under 50% of its oil needs even after the shale revolution.

Plenty being imported on a daily basis.

Meanwhile, worldwide oil demand grows every year (rapidly lately) and companies have reduced investments globally over the past 3 years.

There is a reason WTI is up from a low of $26 to $65. The Saudis and Russians want it and shale cannot meet worldwide growth alone.

Bfw


I believe that the US is producing 10 MM bbls a day and importing only 2.5 MM bbls a day and overall is a net exporter of energy.
quote:
Originally posted by ThistlinTom:
I believe that the US is producing 10 MM bbls a day and importing only 2.5 MM bbls a day and overall is a net exporter of energy.


Your production number is correct, just recently surpassed the 10 MM bbls per day, but the imports are 8 MM bbls/day. That is the average of the past 4 weeks, which is down about 4% from the same period last year.

You guys need lots of heavy crude, but produce little. Enter Canada, Venezuela and Mexico.
quote:
Originally posted by steve8:
quote:
Originally posted by ThistlinTom:
I believe that the US is producing 10 MM bbls a day and importing only 2.5 MM bbls a day and overall is a net exporter of energy.


Your production number is correct, just recently surpassed the 10 MM bbls per day, but the imports are 8 MM bbls/day. That is the average of the past 4 weeks, which is down about 4% from the same period last year.

You guys need lots of heavy crude, but produce little. Enter Canada, Venezuela and Mexico.


Exactly. The Americas make alot more oil than generally given credit for. Oil prices may have been trading up but what's the possible upsidenin putting money in oil? I don't see oil going back to the 100+/barrel range anytime soon esp w markets coming down.
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by steve8:
quote:
Originally posted by ThistlinTom:
I believe that the US is producing 10 MM bbls a day and importing only 2.5 MM bbls a day and overall is a net exporter of energy.


Your production number is correct, just recently surpassed the 10 MM bbls per day, but the imports are 8 MM bbls/day. That is the average of the past 4 weeks, which is down about 4% from the same period last year.

You guys need lots of heavy crude, but produce little. Enter Canada, Venezuela and Mexico.


Exactly. The Americas make alot more oil than generally given credit for. Oil prices may have been trading up but what's the possible upsidenin putting money in oil? I don't see oil going back to the 100+/barrel range anytime soon esp w markets coming down.


Actually, the US is getting too much credit lately for its rising production.

The world uses about 100 million barrels per day. The US produces about 10 million or 10% of that.

The issue is production is declining in most other nations and OPEC is limiting supplies along with Russia. Venezuela is on the verge of chaos and almost 2 million barrels per day could be lost if they go offline.

The Permian alone (which is where production increases are coming from) will not be able to match world growth alone.

So $100...not this year...but WTI hitting $80 is a significant possibility. This during a time when oil equities are priced for lower levels. In fact, the energy index recently had its lowest level of market cap vs the overall index ever!

So, all oil equities need is for sentiment to change, shorts to cover and move on and they could see significant appreciation.

Bfw
Interesting take, that you think the world is acutally going on the up tick where as i think we're entering a softening cycle.

But yes, my rebuttal is simply a reflection of my belief in a down cycle in response to winetrooper, if you think the global economy still has alot of juice left then, my below analysis wouldnt apply.

But!

The Americas, not just the US has a significant amount of Oil supplies, production may only be the numbers you quoted but that clearly doesnt tell the story when oil prices go up. The supply in north america puts a very heavy downward cap on where the
price of oil can rise.

Alot of this has to do with OPEC + Russia agreeing to cut and Venezuela in a shit hole so they cant sell anything.

We're also starting to see that the North Americans ramping up production to the highest in 10 years, OPEC is starting to break @ the 65$ mark and have increased outputs in Jan. Russia has stated that they're going to start pumping more again too.

Add that to a future potential loss of usage when a larger majority of car manufacturers move towards direct electric engines all point to a limited upside to oil in the long run.

I'd say 75$ is the possibility and 80$ is the stretch. but with WTI @ 65$. 80$ only represents a 23% gain. That's a long holding period / risk for so little gain.


vs. the excellent recommendation of NKTR. 14% in 1 week.
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
Interesting take, that you think the world is acutally going on the up tick where as i think we're entering a softening cycle.

But yes, my rebuttal is simply a reflection of my belief in a down cycle in response to winetrooper, if you think the global economy still has alot of juice left then, my below analysis wouldnt apply.

But!

The Americas, not just the US has a significant amount of Oil supplies, production may only be the numbers you quoted but that clearly doesnt tell the story when oil prices go up. The supply in north america puts a very heavy downward cap on where the
price of oil can rise.

Alot of this has to do with OPEC + Russia agreeing to cut and Venezuela in a shit hole so they cant sell anything.

We're also starting to see that the North Americans ramping up production to the highest in 10 years, OPEC is starting to break @ the 65$ mark and have increased outputs in Jan. Russia has stated that they're going to start pumping more again too.

Add that to a future potential loss of usage when a larger majority of car manufacturers move towards direct electric engines all point to a limited upside to oil in the long run.

I'd say 75$ is the possibility and 80$ is the stretch. but with WTI @ 65$. 80$ only represents a 23% gain. That's a long holding period / risk for so little gain.


vs. the excellent recommendation of NKTR. 14% in 1 week.


So, I’ll stick to the numbers.

Exxon just projected an increase in demand by 20 million barrels per day until 2040 with stronger gains in early years due to EV replacement in later years.

Many think EV is penetrating now but oil use rises every year (I believe 2008 was the exception). Oil has many uses outside of personal transportation.

In a year or so, Gulf of Mexico production will start to drop off. As well, many legacy wells around the world continue their 4-6% decline per year. Decline never sleeps.

So, I think we’ll see just how much shale will be able to ramp up in 2019-2020 time frame and what price of oil will be needed. The interesting thing about shale is that decline rates can be as high as 70% in the first year. So, it is a bit of a treadmill in terms of adding production.

Finally, we have Saudi on side looking for a higher price to float Aramco. It’s like having the Fed on your side. Also, the spectre of Trump reintroducing sanctions to Iran.

The oil price may not have massive upside but I would argue the equities offer tremendous value here.

As for NKTR (it’s a good pick), I’ll stick will my rec of VLE.TO (PNWRF). It’s up from 42 cents to $5.78 in a few months and this week they will release a resource assessment that will likely be played up by their partner Statoil.

Bfw
I pretty much agree with Bfw, although US demand has been decreasing, world demand is continuing to increase, especially as the world economy strengthens. I don't see EV's impacting demand much for a while. Shale well production does have a high decline rate and companies are being a little more careful about overdrilling.
you guys are both talking mid-long term projections on oil.

Whereas i'm talking about alternatives to buying stocks if there is a market correction in the immediate short term.

you'll see the price of oil and oil companies are pretty tightly correlated with drops in the market especially with current inventory levels/production levels I gave. so I will restate, it's a very bad buy for so little potential upside in the short term as a hedge against stocks.
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
you guys are both talking mid-long term projections on oil.

Whereas i'm talking about alternatives to buying stocks if there is a market correction in the immediate short term.

you'll see the price of oil and oil companies are pretty tightly correlated with drops in the market especially with current inventory levels/production levels I gave. so I will restate, it's a very bad buy for so little potential upside in the short term as a hedge against stocks.



A couple thoughts

(1) SPY down about 5% last 5 days. WTI price essentially flat

(2) Total crude inventories in US were up by 56 million barrels in first 3 months last year. The projection for this year is minimal to no build.

So, short term, crude could (and has) definitely outperform the market. What would be really interesting is if at the end of the market correction, some sector rotation occurred and money flowed in to XLE and XOP.

Perhaps Goldman is anticipating this with their recent call for Brent to hit $82.

But, in the interim, if you expect a market correction.....just short the market.

Bfw
There's a decided difference in actually putting more money at risk by shorting the market to rotating money into different sectors though.

It would be interesting to see if money does rotate into oil stocks and oil holdings.

I feel smart money is going to move to cash as the dumb money has suddenly decided to finally enter the market that all the macro guys have been pining for for years.

As with the goldman report.

Well who can forget the https://www.marketwatch.com/st...-of-200-a-barrel-oil
quote:
Originally posted by irwin:
quote:
Originally posted by wine+art:
I don’t have the energy to jump deep into this thread this morning, but I lost ($37k+) with my oil stocks on Friday.


Yikes.


Dividends.... dividends... dividends... I keep telling myself. Cool
quote:
Originally posted by wine+art:
quote:
Originally posted by irwin:
quote:
Originally posted by wine+art:
I don’t have the energy to jump deep into this thread this morning, but I lost ($37k+) with my oil stocks on Friday.


Yikes.


Dividends.... dividends... dividends... I keep telling myself. Cool


cash is king ;-)
quote:
Originally posted by g-man:
quote:
Originally posted by wine+art:
quote:
Originally posted by irwin:
quote:
Originally posted by wine+art:
I don’t have the energy to jump deep into this thread this morning, but I lost ($37k+) with my oil stocks on Friday.


Yikes.


Dividends.... dividends... dividends... I keep telling myself. Cool


cash is king ;-)



VLE new 52 week high in this horrific tape Smile

Bfw
quote:
Originally posted by bfw:

VLE new 52 week high in this horrific tape Smile

Bfw


heh,

I know literally 0 about canadian stocks and wouldnt even know where to begin looking into anything related to fundamental analysis on these small cap no news but go up 5% stocks =)

but if you got any more tips, let me know Cool

Add Reply

Likes (0)
×
×
×
×