Every time I get a newsletter from a retial wine shop each month I have noticed that all of them have all these new wineries they are talking about. There are so many new wineries today putting out a 60 cab that is suppose to be just amazing wine.

Personally I think there are way to many wineries like this and in time many of them will be going under. The market can not support so many wineries putting out such high end wines. I know some wine merchants real well in my area and they say that only about 4% of their customers buy high end wines. Wines being 50 and over a bottle.

The whole thing with all these new wineries popping up each month reminds me of the early 90's with Microbrewed beers and brew pubs. Mostly all of them went under. The only one of them that really made it was Sam Adams. Petes Wicked made it but I dont see them being around in 5 years. I have a feeling that in the next couple of years most of these wineries will be folding as well.

It was not to long ago that a new wineries mailing list would fill up and a waiting list would form right away. Now new wineries that open and go the mailing list route have a very hard time filling there list. I think in a few years we will start to see a wave of producers of cabs in the 50 and up range start to close their doors. Its all about supply and demand. I can't see how a bank would even lend to a start up winery today. The money for a start up has to be coming from private investors now. I cant see how a loan proposal for a new winery would make any sense financially to the loan officer.
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I think alot of us make the early mistake of trying to find the next Cult or the next Neal, so we sign up. A good example for me was Barbour. I signed up the first year sight unseen and it turned out to be a QPR dog. Lesson learned and I was quickly off the mailing list. I still occasionally will check out a $40-50 wine, but no long do I just join mailing lists that come my way
Here's a simple exercise.

Get a 10 year old WS issue with a Californian tasting and see how many names you recognise, let alone still see.

The ultimate result of shielding men from the effects of folly is to fill the world with fools. -Herbert Spencer

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