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I certainly don't wish him any ill.  But at some point all those KFC and McDonalds lunches and lack of exercise (riding a golf cart is not exercise) may catch up.  Still, his physicians said he was the most healthy and fit President ever in the history of the country (with a BMI that just happened to come in right below obese), so if that's true he'll be in great shape for the 2024 campaign.

@Rothko posted:

How do you see this happening?

The only way Biden won't be on the ticket is if some medical problem crops up that no one has predicted.  Yes, he's old, and some might say he's senile, but at this point that isn't stopping him.

As for Trump, it would seem to also be a medical issue that would stop him from getting the nomination.  Yes, we are still a long ways out, and things can happen with more indictments, but aren't those baked into his numbers at this point?  If he get indicted in Georgia, or NJ, or DC, his base isn't going to care.  There's no one at this stage that looks like they could realistically challenge him.

the 2024 election is a long way off.  As to Biden, I think gradual deterioration of his mentation, and the potential realization by the Democrats that he isn't terribly popular might cause him to step aside.  As to Trump, the Republicans might realize that his several indictments (with two more potentially to come) are going to make it impossible for him to win, and will hurt Senate and Congressional candidates.

The two are somewhat intertwined.  It's easy to make the case that Biden is too old to get another term, but not if the Republican candidate is Trump, who is only a few years younger than Biden.  If Biden steps aside, the Dems will say Trump is too old.  If Trump steps aside, the Republicans will ratchet up their "Biden is too old" theme.

Of course, as Yogi Berra said, "Predictions are hard to make....especially about the future."

An historical note:  How do indicted or convicted candidates fair in elections? Do they always lose?

San Francisco Mayor Eugene Schmitz was convicted of extortion and bribery in 1907. He was sentenced to 5 years in San Quentin. The conviction was reversed and a new trial scheduled. That trial resulted in an acquittal largely due to the fact that one of the key witnesses against him refused to testify and the other had fled to Canada, and was unavailable. Schmitz was later elected twice to the Board of Supervisors of San Francisco, analogous to a city council.

In the mid-1940's, James M. Curley, who had been mayor of Boston, Governor of Massachusetts, and a congressman, was indicted on several charges of mail fraud and bribery. While under these indictments he ran for Mayor again and won with 45% of the vote, using the slogan “Curley Gets Things Done.” He was convicted in 1947 and sentenced to prison. After serving 5 months, President Truman commuted his sentence to time served, on the grounds that Curley was in ill health. Perhaps the fact that Truman was running for President in 1948 and needed the state of Massachusetts to win was a factor in his decision as well. Curley may have been in ill health, but he lived another decade, dying in 1958.

In Baltimore, we recently had a Mayor named Sheila Dixon. She was convicted of stealing gift cards to Target and other places.  The gift cards were donated to her and were supposed to be handed out to kids and others for Christmas.  She just kept them and used them herself.  She ran for election thereafter and lost by a whisker, and the belief is that she will run again in 2024.

@Rothko posted:

I certainly don't wish him any ill.  But at some point all those KFC and McDonalds lunches and lack of exercise (riding a golf cart is not exercise) may catch up.  Still, his physicians said he was the most healthy and fit President ever in the history of the country (with a BMI that just happened to come in right below obese), so if that's true he'll be in great shape for the 2024 campaign.

You're a better person than I, I wish him a lot of ill. 

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