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@Insight posted:

It’s never good for an old white man (my presumption since I haven’t met you) to assume that a white man was making the comment about “black adjacent”.  I know you’re unaware that I have good friends, clients and industry colleagues who happen to be African-American.  Or that I grew up in a neighborhood where black folk were the majority, and white folk were the most represented minority.  

To you, she is black.  To the black community, it’s a bit more nuanced.  I’ll trust their feedback and opinions more than yours every time on this subject.

I'm going out on a limb, with only what you have written here and the demographics of high-end wine drinking in general, that there is a 1% chance you are black. Let me in and let me know if this was right.

"To you, she is black.  To the black community, it’s a bit more nuanced."

I find this incredibly offensive. First that now you're speaking for the black community. But more shocking is as a thinking person you don't know that a black person is black no matter what others may think? There's no nuance. Hopefully your friends, whose opinion you take highly, can overcome their separatism and vote for Biden and her instead of Trump and Pence.

Last edited by The Old Man
@The Old Man posted:

I'm going out on a limb, with only what you have written here and the demographics of high-end wine drinking in general, that there is a 1% chance you are black. Let me in and let me know if this was right.

"To you, she is black.  To the black community, it’s a bit more nuanced."

I find this incredibly offensive. First that now you're speaking for the black community. But more shocking is as a thinking person you don't know that a black person is black no matter what others may think? There's no nuance. Hopefully your friends, whose opinion you take highly, can overcome their separatism and vote for Biden and her instead of Trump and Pence.

This is a relevant Twitter thread: https://twitter.com/owasow/status/1293314215403384832

"multiracial candidates have advantage of building coalitions with voters from other groups, but they are disadvantaged when appealing to co-racials with strong racial identities."

 

 

@The Old Man posted:

I'm going out on a limb, with only what you have written here and the demographics of high-end wine drinking in general, that there is a 1% chance you are black. Let me in and let me know if this was right.

"To you, she is black.  To the black community, it’s a bit more nuanced."

I find this incredibly offensive. First that now you're speaking for the black community. But more shocking is as a thinking person you don't know that a black person is black no matter what others may think? There's no nuance. Are you aware of the history of black racism against black women whose skin was too light? Perhaps you should go back to your friends, whose opinions you take highly, and ask them about the days of Pinky and high yellow. Racism in all its forms stinks. And then ask them are they just too upset about this ersatz black women are going to have to vote for Trump and Pence?

There are more colors in this world than white and black.  

I’m well aware that the black community can be as racist as any other.  As I stated above, I grew up in a majority black neighborhood.  Was definitely on the receiving end of racist incidents on more than a couple handfuls of occasions.  

Where you’re really going off the rails here is your perception that Biden needs serious help to get the black vote out to the polls in November, and was “soft in that area”.  You fail to realize that black voters are why Biden scored his first few (and obviously much needed) primary wins in South Carolina, Alabama and Arkansas, which propelled him into Super Tuesday with massive momentum.  Black Dem primary voters overwhelmingly supported Biden over Sanders, Warren, etc., particularly in the Southern states:

https://www.facingsouth.org/20...-souths-black-voters

This shouldn’t have come as a surprise to anyone.  Biden got along extremely well with Obama, and the black community never forgot that.  Don’t belittle the black community by assuming that any Dem Presidential candidate could have chosen a black running mate, and such a move would be viewed as genuinely as they view Biden doing so.  They would absolutely side eye the likes of Bernie or Buttigieg if those guys had done such a manuever.

Don’t forget as well that Harris, as a DA and AG, was a centrist in her views about crime and policing.  You’d be hard pressed to find much in the way of policy reforms that were beneficial to the black communities in San Francisco, or California at large:

https://theappeal.org/kamala-h...er-presidential-run/

Considering that Putin’s Bitch has accomplished nothing on behalf of the black community to improve his meager showing at the 2016 polls with black voters, I’m not sure what place you’re coming from in assuming that Biden desperately needed a black woman on his ticket to keep black voters from staying home this November.  In a multitude of ways, he’s nothing like HRC was in 2016 at this juncture.......

Last edited by Insight
@The Old Man posted:

As I said there is no question it's going to help with black voters. And Biden was soft in that area. Also she does no harm like Bass in her idiotic comments about Scientology and Fidel Castro.

Was he weak though?  Seems to me that his biggest selling feature other than not being Trump is his association with Obama, which to me certainly would help with Black voters. 

To answer both I believe that's what the polling shows. Softer than it was for Hillary. For PROSYS I don't believe that the support he got that pushed him upward so quickly from blacks during the primary was necessarily translating into a national trend. Now exactly what about that racial question so I can go to sleep easily tonight?

@winetarelli posted:

I imagine the next person I vote for in a Presidential primary will probably be Buttigieg or Sherrod Brown, though if Yang got his shit together, learned how to campaign, and spent some time in government, he would get a real look.  In the meantime, though, all that really matters is getting the orange dumpster fire out of office and delivering a Democratic Senate so his damage can begin to be undone.  2024 can't really be on our minds right now.

+1 

@Insight posted:

NY Times poll in battleground states a couple months ago found only a minority of voters thought race should be the primary consideration in who Biden chose as a running mate:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/0...s.html?smid=tw-share

Would like to see whatever polling or evidence that leads The Old Man to “believe” that Biden needs shoring up with the black voting community........

I think you're mixing up what people may say about they think in the abstract, but the actuals don't bear it out.

Now as to where my "believes" comes from:

Joe Biden's advantage over Trump with Black voters is currently smaller than Hillary Clinton's was

Does Biden have a problem with African American voters?

Poll: Biden Lags Hillary’s 2016 Numbers among Young Black Voters

I even included the National Review in there to show that if you do a simple search you can't help but find "polling or evidence" to back up what I said.

Last edited by The Old Man
@The Old Man posted:

I think you're mixing up what people may say about they think in the abstract, but the actuals don't bear it out.

Now as to where my "believes" comes from:

Joe Biden's advantage over Trump with Black voters is currently smaller than Hillary Clinton's was

Does Biden have a problem with African American voters?

Poll: Biden Lags Hillary’s 2016 Numbers among Young Black Voters

I even included the National Review in there to show that if you do a simple search you can't help but find "polling or evidence" to back up what I said.

Considering the dynamics of 2020 election cycle are markedly different than 2016, I don’t read as much into the “enthusiasm gap” for Biden compared to HRC.  There’s a fair amount of “out of sight, out of mind” with the pandemic and societal upheaval keeping Biden less in public view compared to HRC at the same juncture in the 2016 cycle, whereas Putin’s Bitch is constantly in traditional and social media (for better and worse).

If Biden really needed to shore up support with young, black voters, they broke more towards Bernie than Kamala during the Dem presidential debates (based on polling).  And the ones who skew towards Trump nowadays would likely prefer to vote for Kanye West instead in the few states that will have West on the ballot.

I like the way FiveThirtyEight grades the various polling entities and aggregates their output.  Their “emergency” podcast today re: the Harris pick, and their video podcast yesterday, are decently enlightening IMO.

Last edited by Insight
@Insight posted:

Considering the dynamics of 2020 election cycle are markedly different than 2016, I don’t read as much into the “enthusiasm gap” for Biden compared to HRC.  There’s a fair amount of “out of sight, out of mind” with the pandemic and societal upheaval keeping Biden less in public view compared to HRC at the same juncture in the 2016 cycle, whereas Putin’s Bitch is constantly in traditional and social media (for better and worse).

If Biden really needed to shore up support with young, black voters, they broke more towards Bernie than Kamala during the Dem presidential debates (based on polling).  And the ones who skew towards Trump nowadays would likely prefer to vote for Kanye West instead in the few states that will have West on the ballot.

I like the way FiveThirtyEight grades the various polling entities and aggregates their output.  Their “emergency” podcast today re: the Harris pick, and their video podcast yesterday, are decently enlightening IMO.

You ask me for "polling or evidence" and when I give it to you you say, essentially, polling or evidence doesn't matter this year. I see how this works. It took me a moment, but I think I have it now.

Last edited by The Old Man
@The Old Man posted:

You ask me for "polling or evidence" and when I give it to you you say, essentially, polling or evidence doesn't matter this year. I see how this works. It took me a moment, but I think I have it now.

I hope you manage to have a moment of clarity regarding polling.  Let’s take a look at the CNN article:

There have been over 10 national live interview polls since the protests began for which I could assess Black voter sentiment in the presidential race. Altogether, we're looking at well more than 1,000 interviews.

-  1,000 people isn’t a very substantial sample size for a single poll.  It’s even more variable when you’re amalgamating an average of 100 people from 10 different polling groups.  

Biden leads in those polls by an 83% to 8%, or 75-point, margin. That, of course, is a huge advantage for Biden, but it also represents a small improvement for Trump since 2016.

Hillary Clinton was ahead of Trump by a 79-point margin among Black registered voters in the pre-election polls taken right before the 2016 election, as compiled by the New York Times' Nate Cohn. Biden, for what it's worth, is equaling Clinton's 83% in those polls. Trump's picking up a lot of the vote that went to third-party candidates.
 
-  so not only is the author comparing different junctures of the campaigning cycle, but he’s also comparing different sets of options for voters.  Further, what states those who were polled reside in make a substantial difference.  A 3rd party voter switching to Trump in CA, NY or MA is meaningless.  Put that voter in a swing/battleground state, and that’s far more meaningful.
 
Where you’re at in the election cycle oftentimes is important.  Putin’s Bitch pulled even with, and in a few polls took the lead from, HRC in polling right after the RNC convention.  Then HRC retook the lead after the DNC convention.  
 
I’m a firm believer in the mantra of “past results are no guarantee of future performance”.  What happened in 2016 occurring again in 2020 is less likely IMO than a different outcome (either overall, or broken down by demographics and states).  Come November, we’ll see if that’s the case or not.  
 
Last edited by Insight
@The Old Man posted:

Now  you don't like the way the statistics were collected. As I already said, I get it, I understand your method. I believe it's called "moving the goalpost." Enough.

Putting your faith in suspect polling samples is basically akin to trusting the collection methods of a Rasmussen Reports or other entities with patently dubious methodologies.  But hey, ignorance is bliss for a subset of the global population.  Enjoy your bliss!

Harris has all the experience in elections, state and Federal.  A tough cookie.  Good age!    Would be great AG or SCOTUS.   Then we could get Rice in as VP, if Harris moves to Court.   Bass has some experience, but not the name recognition.   Mike had better get a suit of armor as she will destroy him in a debate

@The Old Man posted:

My better self deleted that. You apparently have none.

So you want to give yourself credit for posting an insult, then deleting it?  After trying to deflect a detailed takedown of the suspect data analysis you hung your hat on, by calling it “moving the goalposts”?

If I didn’t know better, that’s more the “strategy” of a knucklehead MAGAt like Napacat than an informed political observer from either side of the center.  I almost envy the blissful world you appear to inhabit.

@Insight posted:

So you want to give yourself credit for posting an insult, then deleting it?  

Yes. Good people can take back something and even admit when they're wrong.

After trying to deflect a detailed takedown of the suspect data analysis you hung your hat on, by calling it “moving the goalposts”?

The information I provided (about Biden not doing as well with Blacks as Clinton) is easy to find and research. You self-serving interpretation of your response as a "takedown" belies the truth of the actual data and facts (which you asked for.) Besides your unrepented personal attack your other logical fallacy was indeed "moving the goalpost."

If I didn’t know better, that’s more the “strategy” of a knucklehead MAGAt like Napacat than an informed political observer from either side of the center.  I almost envy the blissful world you appear to inhabit.

Another personal attack, what a guy. Now you've lost twice.

Now tell us again how you've lived amongst black people for so many years. ProSys, the great white (I'm going with you're white even though you won't say) spokesman the black race has been looking for.

The last word, no doubt another insult, is yours. Enjoy.

Last edited by The Old Man

Kamala Harris was tough on crime as a prosecutor. Well, that's what she is supposed to be. And, are there alot of people out there who are in favor of crime.

My friends and clients in the Black community hate crime. They are victims of it in many ways.  This will not be a negative for her at all.  This is not to say that all Blacks think alike.

 

 

irwin, I don't know her record well as a prosecutor, but wasn't one of the biggest knocks on her that she had a particularly tough stance on relatively minor drug offences (including marijuana), that disproportionately affected Black people?  That was the criticism I heard most often post-debates especially from the Democrats.  I don't hear it as much anymore though. 

@csm posted:

irwin, I don't know her record well as a prosecutor, but wasn't one of the biggest knocks on her that she had a particularly tough stance on relatively minor drug offences (including marijuana), that disproportionately affected Black people?  That was the criticism I heard most often post-debates especially from the Democrats.  I don't hear it as much anymore though. 

A very detailed, very long and unfortunately pop-up laden, article reviewing her stance on marijuana over many years.

Where Vice Presidential Candidate Kamala Harris Stands On Marijuana

It's a mixed record, of which I believe she came to the correct side some time ago. Regardless, I think I kind of like her more than Mike Pence.

@The Old Man posted:

 

It's a mixed record, of which I believe she came to the correct side some time ago. Regardless, I think I kind of like her more than Mike Pence.

Not saying much there is it....?

Thanks for sharing the article.  I still find this a peculiar choice, for a lot of reasons.  I just don't see her moving the needle for Biden enough to get him into the White House.  Hope I'm wrong, but I have my doubts. 

@Rothko posted:

Didn't you hear?   Florida's mail-in voting is OK.  Because the Governor is Republican and lots of elderly Republicans vote by mail-in ballot.

It's just bad in other states.  Democratic states run by those far left liberal progressive communist pinkos.

Honestly, based upon current polling, I would breathe a huge sigh of relief if I was confident Florida would get mail-in voting correct. 

I did do mail-in for the August 18th election.  Quite simple and easy; first time I've voted by mail rather than in person.

I am torn about the November election.  Should I do another mail-in ballot (mail it as early as I can) or vote in person?  That's the dilemma.  Usually there's not a line at my polling place; when I voted in March right after all Covid stuff started there was almost no one there and no line at all.  Not sure what November will be like.

@Rothko posted:

I did do mail-in for the August 18th election.  Quite simple and easy; first time I've voted by mail rather than in person.

I am torn about the November election.  Should I do another mail-in ballot (mail it as early as I can) or vote in person?  That's the dilemma.  Usually there's not a line at my polling place; when I voted in March right after all Covid stuff started there was almost no one there and no line at all.  Not sure what November will be like.

Voting here by mail for at least 20 years.

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