stefaniawine posted:
bomba503 posted:

Witten was a mess and lost on camera. ...

He was fun in a Joe Theismann, what the hell is he talking about, did he really just say that, can he be that dumb way.  "You can't put up points in this league unless you score."  Joe Theismann.

The thing that drove me crazy was he would always look at the other person in the booth when speaking and I never felt like he was addressing the audience. It was uncomfortable to watch

Things are rolling now.  I caught a little preseason action. 

When is it too soon to start picking on Gruden?  I mean pretty much a blindfolded drunk monkey throwing darts at a roster list would be better for picking out talent right?

Cowboys are in the crunch I predicted last year but playing it much smarter than I thought they would.  Elliot in Cabo all year really isn't going to hurt them and it sounds like they are playing tough with Prescott.  

I think the 49ers are the team most likely to have a huge turnaround and the Cardinals are the very definition of why relegation would be a good thing for the NFL. 

stefaniawine posted:

Things are rolling now.  I caught a little preseason action. 

When is it too soon to start picking on Gruden?  I mean pretty much a blindfolded drunk monkey throwing darts at a roster list would be better for picking out talent right?

Cowboys are in the crunch I predicted last year but playing it much smarter than I thought they would.  Elliot in Cabo all year really isn't going to hurt them and it sounds like they are playing tough with Prescott.  

I think the 49ers are the team most likely to have a huge turnaround and the Cardinals are the very definition of why relegation would be a good thing for the NFL. 

I think Dak is a very average QB without Zeke to take the pressure off of him.  I wouldn't give him the $ he is looking for, $40/million per ?  Crazy talk.

Most excited I've been for a Browns season since the Bernie Kosar days, I hope they don't let me down.  

billhike posted:

This is the first time I’ve been excited about the Bears since before the Jay Cutler era.

Bears were +12 in turnovers last year with no recent history of being a plus team.

Bears lead the league in defensive touchdowns (6), a stat that is largely luck and not repeatable.

Bears go from playing a last place schedule to a first place schedule.

Those are three of the biggest predictors of poor performance relative to the previous season I've found.  That's a bad combo for the Bears.  It's almost exactly the same combo as the 2017/18 Jacksonville Jags. (10/7/worst to first schedule)  I predicted the Jags last year as no better than 8-8.  Finished 5-11. 

The Schedule thing is a killer.  Last year they had seven, 7, count them 7 games against out of division sad saps.  This year they've got 2.

If the Bears make the playoffs this year beer is on me for my net Chicago visit.  Confident I wouldn't be buying.

stefaniawine posted:
billhike posted:

This is the first time I’ve been excited about the Bears since before the Jay Cutler era.

Bears were +12 in turnovers last year with no recent history of being a plus team.

Bears lead the league in defensive touchdowns (6), a stat that is largely luck and not repeatable.

Bears go from playing a last place schedule to a first place schedule.

Those are three of the biggest predictors of poor performance relative to the previous season I've found.  That's a bad combo for the Bears.  It's almost exactly the same combo as the 2017/18 Jacksonville Jags. (10/7/worst to first schedule)  I predicted the Jags last year as no better than 8-8.  Finished 5-11. 

The Schedule thing is a killer.  Last year they had seven, 7, count them 7 games against out of division sad saps.  This year they've got 2.

If the Bears make the playoffs this year beer is on me for my net Chicago visit.  Confident I wouldn't be buying.

Hopefully that visit is soon!

Khalil Mack basically had no training camp last year - same with Roquan Smith. I can see six defensive TD's with this team easily, to be honest. 

Yeah, the schedule is a serious challenge. If Trubisky can progress and gain some consistency, I'm optimistic what he can do with some additional weapons they picked up. No blockbusters but nice pieces that can be rotated and kept fresh if they aren't selfish. 

Unfortunately, locally we are still talking way too much about f***ing kickers. 

billhike posted:
stefaniawine posted:
billhike posted:

This is the first time I’ve been excited about the Bears since before the Jay Cutler era.

Bears were +12 in turnovers last year with no recent history of being a plus team.

Bears lead the league in defensive touchdowns (6), a stat that is largely luck and not repeatable.

Bears go from playing a last place schedule to a first place schedule.

Those are three of the biggest predictors of poor performance relative to the previous season I've found.  That's a bad combo for the Bears.  It's almost exactly the same combo as the 2017/18 Jacksonville Jags. (10/7/worst to first schedule)  I predicted the Jags last year as no better than 8-8.  Finished 5-11. 

The Schedule thing is a killer.  Last year they had seven, 7, count them 7 games against out of division sad saps.  This year they've got 2.

If the Bears make the playoffs this year beer is on me for my net Chicago visit.  Confident I wouldn't be buying.

Hopefully that visit is soon!

Khalil Mack basically had no training camp last year - same with Roquan Smith. I can see six defensive TD's with this team easily, to be honest. 

Yeah, the schedule is a serious challenge. If Trubisky can progress and gain some consistency, I'm optimistic what he can do with some additional weapons they picked up. No blockbusters but nice pieces that can be rotated and kept fresh if they aren't selfish. 

Unfortunately, locally we are still talking way too much about f***ing kickers. 

That's an even easier bet.  Three teams have had 6 in the past 5 years.  The high in the past 5 years is 6.  If I was making book I'd say it's well over 100 x 1 they will have 6 or more again this year.  I think more than 50 x 1 they'd have 3 or more.  Last time they had 6 (2013) they had 1 the following year. 

It's just a stat that doesn't really correlate to anything very closely.  Teams that lead the league tend to be good defensive teams, but good defensive teams can fall anywhere from 1-30 in the rankings for DTD's.  Bad defensive teams can also be at the top, or at the bottom.  When stats show that lack of pattern over a small base, they tend to average back to the middle year over year.  If the league average is 2, the odds are any team, no matter how their defense ranks, will get 2. 

Takeaway +/- show the same pattern of correcting back to a team median.  IF a team averages 5 a year over a few years and then has 10, the next year they are more likely to have 5 than 10.  This one actually took me awhile to figure out because the correction is not back to 0 or even but back to the level the particular team usually performs at.

The 49ers have been a bad +/- team since 2014, averaging about -4, but last season they were -25.  Odds are this year they will be @ -4.  Still not in the top half of the league, but the change will be dramatic on the outcome of games.  The Bears will move the other direction. They've also been about -4 although they've had some horrible -20 seasons also.  Odds are this season they will be right around -4.

Some things I'll be watching through the first 4 weeks:

Will the Ravens get solid enough QB play to compliment their defense.? I think you can say the same about the Texans.

The Titans QB.  How long before that's a musical chairs?

How do the Browns start? They finally seem to recognize who not to hire as a coach, but all those late wins last year where against teams that had quit.

Speaking of quitting will the Falcons and Panther un-quit this year?

The Cowboys seem to understand where they are at with their salary cap situation, this has got to be the year they make a run.  They have a pretty easy schedule this year and if they don't start 3-0 something is really wrong.

Will the Chiefs play defense?  Will it matter?

I wish the Raiders and the Cardinals played this year.  The Shit Bowl.

Chargers.  That looks like the easiest schedule of the year for any good team.  13-3?

I think the 49ers will be much better.  The Saints will be all about staying healthy.  They have a tough schedule and no cap space to bring in help.  

Patio will be open all year for watching games.  First party is Sept 9th, I'm making Jambalaya.  Stop by if you're in town, and remember we don't know anything until after game 4.

 

patespo1 posted:
doubled posted:

Haha ... colts have a good D.  One less playoff team in the mix.  Christmas for some teams like the Texans, Titans, Steelers, Ravens, Jets.

You forgot the Browns Dom, one less team for them to eliminate on their way to the Super Bowl!

I expect the Browns to win the division.  Steelers would be the one fighting for the wildcard.

stefaniawine posted:

I nominate Nathan Peterman.  With all his drama and baggage Brown is at least an NFL caliber player.

Peterman is like having the coaches son in Little League as your starting pitcher and having to stand in the outfield while he walks in runs until the mercy rule hits.

My interpretation of the award includes a high asshole factor. Sticking with my pick.

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