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Week One thoughts on games I watched:

Any other takers from Chitown on that bet?  Because I'm feeling 8-8 might be a stretch after watching that stink turd of an 'offensive performance'.  I doubt the Packers defense suddenly turned into a top 5 team, but will be interesting to watch them this year.

Eli Manning really is a sad figure at this point.  

Chargers - Colts was a better game than I expected.  Chargers 13-3 is still in the cards.

WTF with the Lions?  The Cardinals should be battling the Dolphins and the Giants for #32 in the power rankings.  Are they really that bad bman?  I don't get to see them very often.

Well - you know, all that stuff I said about the Bears and how it relates to the other turn around teams.  That all applied to the Browns also except the 1st place schedule (they have a 3rd place schedule), so no surprises there for me.  Our Browns fans here are a little sensitive so I didn't want to be the one poking them in the eye balls.  The Bears fans can take that.  It is a weak division and who knows what Pittsburg will play like the rest of the season, but I don't see any playoff team in Clevelend.

49ers win the turnover battle, win the game.  The run defense was really suspect and Jimmy G didn't look great, but this team still just needs to get the turnover ratio under control to win 5 more games than last year.

Tampa - Winston - Uber is hiring.

Steelers - Patriots - Dud

Texans - Man if Watson could learn to check down or make some reads he has a hell of an arm.  He's not going to play 8 games this year though getting sacked and beat up like that.  Texans are going to be an all or none team all year long is my guess.  They win by 20, or loss by 20 and the only thing in between is when they lose games by 2 they should have won.

Who are these Raiders and when did Carr get so much better?  Or is that just the Broncos sucking?  We will have to see.

Right now is when Patton does his first week yelling at his Defensive Coordinator to get his shit together.  At least this Tuesday follows a win.  That was a heck of a game.

Seahawks eeked out a sloppy win against the Bengals last Sunday. Cincinnati is supposed to have the worst defense in the league, but they managed to sack Wilson at least 6 times. I would say it doesn't look good against Pittsburg next Sunday, except for the epic shellacking they got from New England, so maybe we'll see 2-0. 

doubled posted:
irwin posted:

Ben Roethlisberger:  Out for the year...Needs elbow surgery.

Drew Brees:  Out for 6 weeks or so...Needs thumb surgery.


On the other hand, Lamar Jackson looks like the real deal.  

Jackson played the Dolphins and Cardinals, so I'm not ready to anoint him yet.  But he has looked improved.

It's amazing, the Browns Won, and Won by 20, and I was disappointed with how they looked.  Weird feeling after watching them go through 1-31 not so long ago. 

I watched some duds this weekend - Tampa - Carolina (best game I saw, which tells you something), Niners - Bengals, Rams - Saints, Browns - Jets.

You do need 4 full games to learn anything.  Sure Jackson has been good but as pointed out he did it against a team I'd rank 31 of 32 and one I'd rank 48 of 32, accounting for the 15 or so college teams and one or two high school teams that could beat the Miami Fishkill.  Going for the first choice in the draft is only a good plan if you've ever shown the ability to draft by the way.

I learned that Tampa has a better defense than I gave them credit for.  I put the Niners struggles up to poor offensive execution, but Carolina had worse problems.  Carolina also had trouble stopping the Tampa run, so I'd say they have a good running game.  Success for them will come down to Winston making good choices.  So in the end, they're still doomed.

I don't think the Niners offense is that good, the Bengals just stunk.  It reminded me of the Saints vs Bills wooping a few years ago that lead to the infamous decision to start Peterman.  Their defense is that good.  They bring pressure with a four man rush and rotate 8 guys keeping them all fresh.  You don't want to be down 10 points to the Niners in the 4th, it's unhealthy for your QB.

Given what I saw from the Steelers and Bengals, the Ravens could could go 3-3 in their remaining non-division games and finish 12-4.

What a let down in the Rams - Saints game.  Teddy Bridgewater literally has at least 50 million in guarantee money riding on how he plays over the next 6 weeks, and so far he's pissing it away.  The Rams defense is one guy, and that's a hell of a guy.

Yeah - You're playing a 3rd string QB, walk on, undrafted, passed on waivers and signed as a free agent QB, then that wasn't a great performance by the Browns.  They basically won on two big plays against a team that could not make one average play.  Mayfield has a dangerous tendency to hang his balls high and expose his receivers to all kinds of terrible hits.  If the Browns hit game 8 at 4-4 or anything less than 6-2 I think those receivers at best will start to get alligator arms.  At worse they are on IR or dead.

You saw one play last night that summed up why I've thought Gregg Williams is a total fucking moron, going back to his Saints days.  Booger called it as it happened: "Williams is dialing up a blitz, he likes to bring pressure inside the 50".  Yeah and the TV announcer spotted it, a guy on his patio in Gilroy spotted it and Baker Mayfield spotted it.  Great work Gregg.  And next time you draw up a blitz anyone on any easy chair in America can see is coming, how about covering the most dangerous freaking receiver in the league with, I don't know, one guy maybe?  Moron.

Still waiting on more Chitown takers on that bet.

On to week 3!

thistlintom posted:

Article in WSJ claims the Dolphins are tanking in order to get future picks and create a good team in the future.  They have traded away good players to get future picks.  This must make Dolphin season ticket holders happy.

Typical action.  Worst management & owner in the league.  Nice stadium, but what a waste.

Mariota had a horrific performance.  23 completions on 55 drop backs, 9 sacks.  9.  There wasn't a single play I saw where he did the "see it, believe it, throw it", you're supposed to .  See it, doubt it, hold it, sack.  He's completely broken and I've got to believe Tannehill  is a better option.

The only thing I can see holding the Jags back is Fournette.  Take away his longest pass (9 yards) and the 69 yard run in garbage time and he's 14 carries for -3 yards and 5 catches for 17 yards.  That's 19 touches for 14 yards.  IT's the equivalent of having your rookie QB take a knee on first down every time so he can throw from 2nd and 11 each time.   No sane person would do that, but that's what the Jags coaches are doing on every drive.

The Jags coaches and front office though has never shown any indication that they can figure that out and get rid of the guy.  He's the exact and I mean exact same player as Jeff Wilson on the 49ers.  Good on the goal line, don't want to counton his blocking in the pass game, catches ok but little RAC.  Low yards per carry.  Wilson was an undrafted free agent and is currently 4th on the Niners depth chart.  He comes in on goal line and garbage time.

Some of the worst end of the game coaching I've seen, and that says a lot, for the Browns last night.  

Run a draw play on 4th and 9 in Rams territory?  Then on the following drive, get to the Rams 4 yard line, first down, 3 time outs, and 40 seconds left and you don't try to run the ball once?  

The Browns defense holds the Rams to 20 points, played their hearts out, and the coaching and Offensive Line do nothing to help them out. 

Not ready to throw in the towel yet, but that was a terrible 4th quarter. 

I got to watch about half of the Ravens game and all of the Browns.  Here's the thing about young QB's, they all have issues.  It's really about fixing the issues.

Lamar Jackson has exactly the same problems as Kaepernick has/had except unlike Kap he seems to have a basic understanding of his playbook and the formations that are in it.  He's also not completely befuddled every time he comes up to the line and looks at a defense.  He has no touch, he locks on to parts of the field, he never looks anyone off, he holds the ball too long and deadliest of all under pressure he turns his back and and tries to loop back to escape.  He never steps up or around in the pocket, and when he does it's not natural, he goes to a spot and the defense knows that spot.

Kap never fixed any of those things.  Never.  Once teams adjusted he was a very ineffective QB.  Jackson's future is about making those adjustments.  Teams have enough film on him now to  punish those mistakes and I saw the Chiefs, who don't have a good defense, well prepared for his flaws, especially the turn the back one.

Mayfield is completely predictable, If he doesn't get the ball out in under 2.2 seconds he rolls right.  The end of that game, the Rams were perfectly prepared for him.  They played a defense loaded with coverage to the right so no one broke open in under 2 seconds.  They went man on man single coverage on the left and brought left side pressure to force him to roll.  They basically set the defense up to do exactly what they know he is comfortable doing and then shut it down with a swarm of defenders on the right side in coverage.  It's tough to win in the NFL playing on 1/2 a field.  

The right read when you see single man on man coverage with no safety help on the left side is to drop back, step up in front of the pressure and throw the fade to the 1x1 receiver.  You'e going to get hit and you need a receiver who can go up for the ball, which the Browns have.  The thing is he never even looked left.

That roll to the right works in college ball where there is just not the depth of talent in the defensive backfield. With the additional 4-5 seconds of time a college defense will break down on the roll and you'll get a completion, even taking 1/2 the field out of play.  Mayfield is basically doing what he learned worked.

That's a serious flaw, and a common one.  Joe Montana had it.  It was his most famous play, and then Bill Walsh spent a couple of years trying to get him to stop doing it.  Drew Brees had it also.  So that's hopeful for Browns fans, Montana and Brees physically and skill set wise are pretty close to Mayfield.

Then again every SEC quarterback since Ken Stabler, not named Manning, has had the same flaw, and none of them have won a Super Bowl.

Chargers look like my swing and miss this year.  Bridgewater made himself $5 million, he's got 15-20 million on the line Sunday.  49ers found both new and repetitive ways to give the ball away and still won.  Not a good sign for the Steelers. I need to see another Lions game.  I wrote them off letting the Cardinals back in the game, and there might be more there.

My Raiders question was answered.  No Carr and the Raiders didn't magically get better, the Broncos just suck.

I'm not excited by the Giants new QB because they have the same coaches and front office.  "You can't fix stupid."  I was glad to see Case Keenum playing again, because let me tell you he sucked working as the check out guy at Home Depot.  I mean you think he's a bad QB you should see him work a cash register.  

And one last bit of breaking news.  I have this exclusive photo of the Dolphins coaching staff looking for players to round out the team:

Excellent notes as always Paul. 

I like the Minkah trade for the Steelers even though they gave up their first round pick for 2020.  I don't think they will be bad enough to be in the Top 10 pick anyway.  I see the Bottom 6: Miami, NY Jets, Cincinnati, Washington, Denver, Arizona,   I think Oakland, Titans, NY Giants, Falcons, and Tampa will have worse records by the end of the season.

What is truly sad is that Miami looked much better for that first half - only being down 10-6 and really should have been winning.  Then the second half happened and they looked normal.    31-6 a good result for them this season.

Other question is how given they suck every year do they always end up having a hard schedule (I know they are in the Pats division but . . .) - Their opponents are 8-1 (granted they each got the gimme win of playing Miami).

Watched Packers - Eagles, 1/2 Pats - Bills (With Otisabdul and his dad), 3/4 of Bears-Vikings, Saints - Cowboys, most of Steelers - Kittens.

Week four you finally get some real insight.  Everyone new the Fins would be stinkers but now it's clear the Broncos, Bengals and Redskins are the bottom feeders.  Some that we thought would be bottom feeders like Tampa and the Giants won't be.  Tampa's got a good team, I saw that against the Niners.

Packers look the best they have in years.  First Eagles game I've seen and they seem to be their own worst enemy with penalties and turnovers.  They could have had 5 face mask penalties.

Bills defense is really good.  Allen was completely over matched and to me undisciplined.  He had that young QB must make big plays mentality and it was his undoing.  It was great to hang out with Otis.

Chase Daniels is a better quarterback than Trubisky.   That's an epic defense, but they need an offense that can keep them from facing 15-20 possessions a game.  That's when luck and big plays start to work against a good defense.

The most memorable thing about the MNF game was, well nothing.

The Saints defense I would have not ranked above the Cowboys, but they won the game.  Teddy Bridgewater earned 10 million or so.  He outplayed Prescott, and if you're a Cowboys fan you should have severe anxiety about paying him 30+ million a year and wrecking your salary cap for the next 5 years.  

It was interesting though to watch Teddy's reaction to his terrible error on 3rd down of turning his back.  You could see he knew that was a stupid mistake the minute he made it, and he was still beating himself up over it post game.  It was the first thing he talked about.  I think, and think not know, that's the impact of practicing with Brees and Payton.  He's learned how to be a QB, what the mistakes are to avoid, game management, reads, all the tough stuff.  He's not executing everything right now, but he KNOWS what he's supposed to do.  There's no need for a  coach to yell at him on the sidelines, he knows exactly what and why he should have done.

This year I've seen Allen screamed at (for good reason), Trubisky coddled, Mariota oblivious and a host of young QB's make the same mistakes over and over again.  I think we saw Bridgewater turn his back for the last time.  That's why I think Chase is a better option for the Bears.  He's not going to win any games for you single handed, but he knows that and he knows exactly what he's supposed to do with the tools he has.

Big game for the Saints and especially the 49ers this week.  Should be fun.


Dallas finally played a team outside the bottom 5, zeke got shut down and Dak showed his talent level when he lacks an effective run game. I knew that was coming. Eagles still working through injuries and integrating personal. Seasons are won and lost in November. Let's see what they look like then.

Trubisky sucks. Goff is merely average. NO doesn't scare me without Brees. SF hasn't been tested yet, this week is potentially they're first test though the Browns are so unpredictable. No one scares me in the NFC this year. If we can stay healthy we have a real shot again.

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