MLB HOF 2023 BALLOT

The Hall of Fame just restructured the Era Committees, effective immediately. The committees are:

• Contemporary Baseball (Players): Players who made their greatest impact on the game since 1980.
• Contemporary Baseball (Managers, Executives, and Umpires): Non-players who made their greatest impact on the game since 1980.
• Classic Baseball: Players and non-players who made their greatest impact on the game before 1980 (including Negro League candidates)

The Contemporary Baseball Era will split into two separate committees -- one to consider only players, and another composite ballot to consider managers, executives and umpires in the same era. Voting for each will rotate to every third year. The three Era Committees will rotate on an annual basis. Each committee will still have 16 members, but each ballot will consist of eight candidates, down from the previous 10. Each committee member is allowed to vote for up to three players on the ballot, with at least 12 votes (75 percent) still required for Hall of Fame induction. This is an erudite but more restrictive change as it allows the clog of more contemporary candidates to separate into players and non players, but with only three votes limits individual induction to true consensus.

Effective beginning in January 2023, eligible players must have been retired for 16 or more seasons, equal to a one-year waiting period following their final potential year of eligibility on the BBWAA ballot. There was previously no wait required for a player to be considered after falling off the BBWAA ballot.  However, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling and Sammy Sosa, who fell off the ballot in January, will still be eligible in December 2022.

With respect to the players section:

Mathematically, only 4 players can be elected. Realistically, 3 are possible.

In a performance only world, that would be Bonds, Clemens, Schilling. However, failing induction this year, they have a 2 turn or 7 year wait to even be considered again!

In a untainted by steroid or social media world, that would be Whitaker, Brown, and Lofton or Evans.

Should be very interesting.

It is intense to be a professional sportsman

Since I switched to a firestick, I started watching baseball much more, I guess, because of this app. It seems that the next season is going to be different and thus even more interesting and exciting. I'm looking forward to it.

Hello ballers!  We are here once again, as the completed end of year 2022 ballot list for the HOF 2023 induction class was just released to voters today.  This includes primarily first timers retiring in 2007 who landed on the Baseball Writers' list supplemented by holdovers surviving the minimum 5% vote from last year, all to be decided in early January 2023. It also includes the renamed Veterans committee short list of players to be voted on December 4 in San Diego, at the Annual Baseball Winter meetings, oddly a congregation mostly for GM's and reporters.

After some questionable inductees the last few years,  the MLB HOF "Small Hallers" put their foot down.  The old time Veterans Committee four era voting rotation for players shrunk to two, the number of eligible candidates on the ballots decreased from 10 to 8, and allowable votes per ballot sliced down from 4 to 3.  Eleven senior reporters hashed out the list; 16 others including former players, executives, and other writers will vote to see who crosses the magical 75% line. This 2023 ballot, named by the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee includes 8 players whose greatest impact was before 1980; so will the 2026 ballot. In 2025, the Classic Baseball ballot is for players before then [eg Tommy John, Dick Allen, Dave Parker]. The intervening third year in the trienniel selection is for non players, and provides a sanity break for all of us next December 2023.

The 8 selections this year are an odd consortium of the tainted and the insufficient.

1- The tainted Four Horsemen are deserving by overall performance: Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens are top 4 players All Time at their positions; Curt Schilling and Rafael Palmeiro top 20. Effectively grandfathered into an 11th year in a row vote since this year would have been the prior Today's Game format anyway, the first three names connected with stench of steroids us or vile character has weighed down on everyone for too long; the writers invoked the character clause. But we all need a break. For Rafael Palmeiro - whose pointed finger and Pinocchio nose overshadow the fact that he is an elite group of Willie Mays, Hank Aaron, and Eddie Murray to hit 500 HR among 3000 Hits, the writers brutally scraped off his candidacy by year 4. If one assumes that old timers are more strict in advancing pristine purity of America's pastime, none of the first three will muster enough votes for selection, and Palmeiro has zero shot. Worse, they form a firm ball and chain on any prior or new candidates moving forward.

Whatever you think of his xenophobic social media platform, during his playing years, he was a respected presumably saner teammate, and posted HOF credentials. While at the short end of volume compared with prior generations, his numbers [ by multiple criteria] minimally surpass the average standard:  14-9 205/185/43/200/3.36/1.11.  ERA- 76; n ERA 3.04/WAR-5.3. That's TOP 35-45 ALL TIME. Throw in  3 2nd place CY. 6 AS, and excellent post season work. We're used to outrage and conspiracy comments now, and at 71%, it's only a few more votes. Time to move him over the hump.

Bonds:  469/118/44/109/23/.315  and 9 WAR/Y; 200 WRC/Y; OPC/WRC+ 200!!!        Yep,  that's 2x production of the average player per PA;  N BA/OPS .312/1.108,      7 MVP, 14 AS, 8 GG. Even before purported clear and cream use after 1998, it was 108/33/97/34/.294,  7.5 WAR;122 WRC;OPC/WRC+ 170;

Yep, he was great; TOP 5 POSITION PLAYER ALL TIME. A HOF before purported use of steroids.

Clemens: 17-9 238/196/74/231/2.94/1.13; ERA- 65;7;n ERA 2.60;WAR-7; 7 CY.

Yep, he was great; TOP 5 SP ALL TIME. A HOF before purported use of steroids

Schilling:  14-9 205/185/43/200/3.36/1.11.  ERA- 76; n ERA 3.04/WAR-5.3.

Yep, he was great That's TOP 30 ALL TIME.

Palmeiro:  587/100/37/111/.6/.291 and 4.5 WAR/Y; 120 WRC/Y; OPC/WRC+ 137;         N BA/OPS .283/ .875  3X Top 10 MVP, 4 AS, 3 GG. 

2- The incomplete are the 4 Musketeers opposite to the Horsemen; lesser formidable stars in cleaner garb. Fred McGriff, Dale Murphy, Albert Belle, and Don Mattingly seem insufficient in comparison to the giants above. Not enough length overall, fewer eg 6 great seasons with steep dropoffs for Murphy, Belle, Mattingly, and in Belle's case bad fielding [and attitude]; or in McGriff's case, bad fielding and bad luck [missing 50 games from 1994 players' strike that almost certainly would have pushed him over the 500 HR, 2500 hits milestone threshold. They all have reasonable cases for induction, but 75% given that some of the tainted will receive votes. No way.

Result: SHUTOUT ON THE CONTEMPORARY ERA  BALLOT.

Post script:  By adding the Four Horsemen to this year's list, the pendulum swung way too far in the opposite direction. The Musketeers by comparison have no shot, stuck in limbo, and in this setup, merging the post 1980 pre steroid era and the post steroid era, with fewer voters and votes, may never have. Worse, the three best other worthy candidates, Kevin Brown, Dwight Evans, and Lou Whitaker remain invisible unconsidered, snapped away by the HOF management Thanos' like finger decree.  Unless the former are all elected,  this vicious cycle leaves at least 7 worthy candidates on the sidelines.  Bad management decision HOF. Very bad.

---------------------------

Nature abhors a vacuum, and the Horsemen joined by Sammy Sosa [an alternate Horseman], leave a gaping hole on the Baseball Writers' ballots. 821 votes have been released from prison. and some are going to find new names. Unfortunately, the incoming freshmen class doesn't deserve many. Only one player is HOF worthy...Carlos Beltran. And he brought some heavy baggage.

1- Carlos Beltran Over 20 years and 11,000 PA [39th All Time], Beltran used his 5 tool kit to amass 435 HR, 312 SB, and 1580 R and 1580 RBI, 9 AS selections, a ROY win, 2 top 10 MVP votes, and 3 GG. On an absolute basis, he is 8th All Time in WAR for CF, behind no brainers Mays, Cobb, Speaker, Mantle Griffey, Trout , and DiMaggio, and ahead of Lofton, Snider, Edmonds.

My Analysis:  AB/R/HR/RBI/SB/BA   536/94/153/27/93/21/.285; OPS/WRC+ 128; WRC/Y- 98; WAR/Y- 5.0.  n BA/OPS .281/.834. By JAWS and HOFs systems, this is a Hall of Famer.

Now comes the luggage. Reported as a main driver in the Houston Astros' Sign Stealing Scandal, the stain of a different sort couches his career. A savvy sign stealer by conventional means, his skills were harvested on the video recording and transmitting mess of 2017 and 2018.  Many in the profession feel the stain of this form of cheating is worse than that of performance enhancers, though the impact on Beltran's career numbers was minimal if at all. My guess is that if Bonds' first year in the ballot garnered 30% of the vote, Beltran in a noncompetitive year will get around that; but it might be less.

2- Francisco Rodriguez He was one of the best relievers of his time, with 6 AS selections and even 3 top 5 CY votes.  He fits in somewhere between Trevor Hoffman and John Franco statistically, borderline HOF.  But relievers get no love, and a better candidate Player B is still on the ballot and still only receiving 50% of the vote. My analysis IP/H/BB/K/SV; ERA and ERA- with lower better eg ERA- 50 is half runs of avg pitcher

KRod  68/50/27/79/30 WITH 2.74 ERA [ERA- = 65]

Player B  60/40/20/80/28 with 2.31 ERA [ERA- = 53]

HOLDOVERS

Comments on these players are extracted from my prior 2022 HOF analysis. Given the vacuum, they will receive some helium of freed votes.

5, 6, 8,  Alex Rodriguez, Gary Sheffield, Manny Ramirez

All DEFINITELY have HOF numbers. PED rules firmly in place will exclude A-Rod and Manny, who were caught and suspended twice. Character counts, and so does stupidity.  Hopefully, videos of Manny's misadventures in LF are enshrined in the Hall.  Sheffield more very good to excellent years, but the shroud is strong, and if Bonds didn't get in, these guys most certainly won't now as well. Sheffield's case is tied to being with Bonds at BALCO, so there is wiggle room here.

Sheff- 486/92/31/95/13/.304   WAR 4.8; WRC 113;WRC/OPS+ 153

Loved the wild swing. How did he make contact so often [only 62 K/Y]

ARod- 601/124/45/1217/21/ .303; OPS/WRC+ 151; WRC/Y- 135; WAR/Y -8. And the n BA/OPS .292/.816. Best SS ever? One of the best 20 position players of all time. 3 time AL MVP;10 time top 10 in MVP. 22 Years PT, amassed 12,000 PA, 16th All time! 8 years 700 + PA, 5 years  161 or 162 games. Able and available!  And an all time EGO that led to all time BAD DECISIONS!    

Manny- 545/105/39/121/2/.318  WAR 5.5;WRC 131;WRC/OPS+ 158.  An all time bat, vying with ARod for number 1 on the Bad Decisions List.  Actually probably number 1 there.

NOT IN - Sheffield takes a small step up, ARod barely inches up, Manny stays put

11- Rollins- A very good 17 year career. Very good in all phases. 1 MVP year, 4 GG. Analysis- 605/98/17/67/33/.268; OPS/WRC+ 98; WRC/Y- 86; WAR/Y- 3.5.  n BA/OPS .264/.721.

We like to think of him as Barry Larkin or Alan Trammell, perhaps because he had the MVP year and played on some great Philly teams, but he's not [both Trammell and Larkin OPS/WRC+/Y ~120 and WAR/Y 4.5], and factoring in the steroid era he played mostly in, he was more like Edgar Renteria [87/10/68/23/.288; OPS/WRC+ 96; WRC/Y- 79; WAR/Y- 2.7.  n BA/OPS .284/.703] than he was those guys. I liked Jimmy Rollins, and would have loved him as my teams' everyday [I mean every day] shortstop for most of those years, but he was not a HOF.

NOT IN

10,13, Andy Pettitte, Mark Buehrle- Basically the same stats

Pettitte 16-9/209/218/65/154/3.86/1.35/   ERA- 85;N ERA 3.42/3.9 WAR

Buerhle- 14-11/219/231/49/126/3.81/1.28/  ERA- 86;N ERA 3.42/4.1 WAR

Splitting hairs. Pettitte is an all time Yank, and Buerhle an all timeChiSox, but they are still borderline especially since both were hittable even despite steroid era work, with higher than average ERA's, lower WAR and IP than many HOF. This is going to be reevaluated going forward as SP pitch fewer innings; I suspect they will begin to look better and better as 200 IP SP disappear as a species. For now, they stay on the ballot, but in now...no way.

NOT IN - What applied to Abreu and Hunter applies here

So where are we? [yeah, yeah On the WS Forums.]

While there are many HOF worthy candidates, the shuffle caused by the 4 Horsemen [Bonds, Clemens, Schilling, Palmeiro] to the Contemporary Era Board of the Veterans Committee, the subsequent vacuum for the Baseball Writers,  and new voting rules has thrown prognostication to the wind.

I'm predicting the Veterans Committee takes a hard line stance for the purity of the game, but commits enough votes to the Horsemen, so they elect no one.

I'm predicting only two new players get enough ballots for next year's consideration, but Beltran's foray to the Dark Side in Houston keeps his votes low and n new player is inducted.

This all leaves the door open for the best of the holdovers. I think both Rolen and Helton squeak in, and Wagner moves way up and gets oh so close.  Some others move up to near the 50% mark.

Everyone from Pettitte on down is at risk of falling off; it depends on whether voters want to fill up their ballot options or not. But, none them them will ever get in.

And now folks, we take you back to prime time  Travel and Entertainment!

Cool story bro.

Rethinking [and overthinking] the way the Contemporary Era votes could go:

The additions of Rafael Palmeiro, and even more so Albert Belle, on the Contemporary Era Ballot surprise me. One was suspended for steroid use, the other an irascible violent alcoholic, and both were quickly expunged from the Writer's ballots. They are just spaceholders here with no shot of any impact on ballots.  In effect, this leaves voters only 6 real candidates to consider, and so:

i- It opens the door for Bonds and Clemens [with lesser suspicions of steroid use and surliness, and HOF careers before purported steroid use] to get 24 [12 each] of the available 36 votes and get enshrined. That allows the HOF to open up spaces for the Evans, Whitaker, Lofton, Brown group next time around, while retrieving some legitimacy as a Hall of the very best performers of all time.

ii- It may allow Schilling to join them. His anathema to writers, not the least stemming from his lynching them comments, is unlikely to matter nearly as much now, though his racist platform still  might. He is likely to spilt votes with...

iii- Fred McGriff, who has no link to performance enhancers, was a long time excellent hitter by both sabermetric and conventional statistics, may sneak by.

iv- Mattingly and Murphy are maddingly similar, high character persona with HOF peaks but shorter careers than almost all HOF inductees over the last 50 years

Can Bonds and Clemens each get 1 vote on 75% ballots? They will likely travel in tandem either way [as they have all along]. Gonna be closer, much closer than I thought just 1 week ago.

Are Schilling or McGriff able to muster enough of the rest? Just don't think so.

HOF CLASS 2023

1- Fred McGriff:  B Competing against 1B batting stats for the HOF is brutal, especially since he was not a good runner or fielder [despite his spokesmanship for fielding videos]. Yes, he's lower half HOF 1B level, but it's a feel good redemption story, and overall,  a good pick. He was snubbed by the writers, who dealt with a backlog of players and steroid infused suspects,  lost 5 years when the ballot went from 15 to 10 years eligibility, and missed 1/3 of 1994 from a players' strike that almost certainly cost him 500 HR, and 2500 H, round numbers that older voters can wrap their arms around. Unanimous selection surprised me, so the ATL/TOR heavy panel had no impact; but he fits the Veterans Committee mold to a tee.  Many years of excellence, rather than fewer elite peak years, like Dale Murphy or Don Mattingly.  Not as good as Eddie Murray or Todd Helton, but better than Will Clark or Carlos Delgado, so clearly HOF-reasonable worthiness.  Congrats to the Crime Dog.

Interestingly, the voting continued the snubbing of:  Bonds, Clemens, and Palmeiro , and in the hands of older curmudgeons, that doesn't project to change much for a decade; and Schilling, along the precipice at 71% his penultimate year with the writers [and would likely have gotten in if he had shut up for a year],  dropped far to <40%. If that baseline stiff trend continues, only Bonds and Clemens will remain on any vet ballot, with Mattingly and Murphy. I don't expect Belle, McGwire, Palmeiro, Sosa to be candidates the next time around, and with only Jeff Kent a newby for the committee to consider, perhaps this also opens opens the door for Kevin Brown, Dwight Evans, Lou Whitaker, Kenny Lofton. Certainly, one would think Mattingly and Murphy's chances just went way up.

The Writers' Ballot:

Stats discussed in detail previously, above.

Let's play the remainder of the game.

Only one newcomer is HOF worthy- Carlos Beltran. But he carries end of career drum roll please... scandalous baggage. No one likes a cheater, let alone a convicted one. Voters need time to digest this, since his career stats were almost certainly not affected. He gets enough votes to stay on the ballot, but judging from Many, ARod, Bonds, Clemens first years, say 30% max.

Next year, there is Adrian Beltre [IN], Joe Mauer and Chase Utley [close say 50%, not IN] . In 2025, there is Ichiro Suzuki [IN], and CC Sabathia [close say 60%, not IN, maybe Wright 10%].  There's no upstream pressure.

There is no backlog, either. Downstream pressure has been lifted. Rolen, A. Jones, and Vizquel [6], and Helton [5 years] still have cycling time. Only Kent [last] and Wagner [8] are coming due amongst the non steroid suspects. Voters used to filling all 10 spots will now have excess vacancies.

Rolen, at 63% already, and benefits from 3B as very underrepresented [only 14 HOF, 1 less than C], and moreover while average statistically with those already in, played every single game of career there, not 1B or DH. Throw in some helium as above and he's in.

Helton may benefit from voters' eschewing the Coors effect, and Wagner is the best reliever eligible for... the next 10-15 years? Helton 's stats are slightly better than the average HOF 1B. Wagner was the first true 1 inning closer reliever, but only Rivera has better metrics [other than Saves]. It's a crapshoot. Both will be oh so close.

Vizquel hurt his wife, and his HOF chances. He is Ozzie-lite in the field and at the plate. May take a small step back

Jones is the most interesting case. He too hurt his wife, but he was elite in a very demanding CF, and was fortunate to play on ATL teams that won and made the playoffs  routinely, thereby getting exposure.  Of course, since his greatest value was his defense [ and stats suggest not as long as people think] and his pop and a peak of 6 years seem awfully like Murphy 20 years later, he's behind the others.  But wait...he looks more and more like Dale Murphy, his ATL CF predecessor.

In fact over top consecutive 7500 PA [ ~11-12 years ], including playoffs:

SABR stats- OBP/ SLG/ OPS/ WRC per year/ o-ttl WAR per year/ WRC+/ and

ISO/PowerSpeed combo/ SP

and basic stats   AB/ R/ H/ HR/ BA[ vs Lg], BB/ K/ 2B/ 3B/ SB

WOW!!! Virtually identical.  Except Murphy had a better oWAR, but Jones a far better dWAR and better ttl WAR.  Are the HOF paths going to be also this close? Andruw is clearly HOF worthy, so let's hope not, but given the slightly better competition ahead of him already, the tough comps to great CF of the past, and the history of what happened to Dale Murphy, he stays put or moves up a little at 50% -60% or so.

The big loser here is Jeff Kent, who barring a jarring SF earthquake, gets to the Veterans Committee in 2026.

SO its

1-F. McGriff

2- S. Rolen

3- maybe T. Helton, and/or B. Wagner

MLB HOF 2023 inductees will be announced in 1 1/2 hours.

McGriff -in

Three players on the fence. Which side will they climb down on? I'm in a good mood today

Rolen, Helton in; Wagner just out [ but should be in]

Next year, writers add only 1 sure fire HOF [Beltre], 2 maybe laters [Mauer, Utley] and only 1 exits [Kent]. So get two or three more in today!