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Early Baseball Era Ballot -  Selection of Buck O'Neil and Bud Fowler.

These are a hodge podge of left overs and Negro League Stars.  Allie Reynolds was very good, but at only 2500 IP, and only one exceptional year, is not HOF worthy. The others I know little to nothing about or also had statistics that were nothing outstanding.

Golden Days Era- Selection of Minnie Minoso, Gil Hodges, Jim Kaat, Tony Oliva.

Minoso- 17 years MLB; 3 in Negro Leagues; >8000PA; Average HOF m and JAWS ratings; my analysis*- avg WAR 3.8; OPC-WRC+ 132;  WRC- 94;  87/14/78/.299/16. - N BA/OPS .297/.834. 5 tools!! Good comps = O.Cepeda, R. Yount. Had  8 AB at age 50, 2 at 54!!

Breakthrough Latin Black player at a difficult time for both

Very Good choice - B+

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Gil Hodges- 18 years MLB; 3 early years lost to military service etc. Power bat 8 AS selections, 3 GG; but 20%  below on HOFm and JAWS. my analysis- -avg WAR 3.2;OPC-WRC+ 123;WRC 92. 81/27/93/.277; N BA/OPS  .266/.809 . Good comps- Derrek Lee, E.Encarnacion, a better T.Martinez.

Final- overall more Hall of Very Good; but 9 years manager [all w piss poor teams] and .523 Excellent work w NY Mets, including One Amazin Season.

Overall Joe Torre light

Good choice - B

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Jim Kaat- 25 years MLB; more as announcer and coach as well. Baseball lifer. 4500 IP! 3 20 W seasons. 16 GG!! Slightly Above avg HOm, slightly below avg JAWS; my analysis- 16-12;245/246/53/140  nERA 3.52;ERA- 88. Innings eater w guile. Good comp- T. John;  And Billy Pierce a much better pitcher on the same ballot was also not elected. Good comp- T. John, R. Reuschel, W. Hoyt.

Overall T.John light; yet T. John slightly better in every regard and NOT in HOF. Neither are other comparables Luis Tiant, Mel Harder, Larry Jackson, Jerry Koosman, Rick Reuschel from same era who pitched equally or slightly better. Kaat's calling card is longevity, which should carry weight, but is not excellence, of which 2 or 3 years imo is not enough. Only 3 AS years; and, if there had been a separate AL CY, he would have won once [1966] to go with his 4th place vote [1975].

While better than H. Baines' selection, this shows how usually the Veterans' Committee usually values LONGEVITY over peak.

Fair choice - C

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Tony Oliva- 15 years MLB; < 7000 PA; ROY, 8 straight AS, and on the HOF track until bad 1971 knee injury derailed his career. Slightly Above avg HOm, slightly below avg JAWS; My analysis- avg WAR 2.8;OPC-WRC+ 131; WRC 67. 81/27/93/.277; N BA/OPS  .311/.841 .  62/16/68/6 .304  Good comps- R.Carty, P. Guerrero.

The hit tool was fabulous; but longevity was not, so this is a surprise. Eight years of consecutive excellence, where averaged 89/22/90/6/.313; 140 OPS+, and 5 WAR. Only 15 years and further 3 of which averaged 16 PA, is really 12 years of any contribution.  Is he a HOF or the just missed hall of the Very Good. There are plenty of similar but more worthy candidates also not yet in HOF- D.Mattingly, K.Hernandez. But even worse, tough comps for OF. Dave Parker, Dale Murphy, Bern Williams, Jim Edmonds had better peaks, Bobby Abreu, Dwight Evans had clearly better careers, even Rusty Staub, Reggie Smith had overall at least as good careers.

I'm not a peak guy, hence my lower grade, but I understand that this star's flame was abruptly put out too soon, and those 8 years were consecutive, HOF worthy or close,  and left an impression on fans and competitors; yes, they should carry relatively greater weight but there are too many more worthy players ahead of him.

Fair choice- C-

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But then there were three misses

Dick Allen- 15 years; 7320 AB; 1 MVP [1973]; 1 near MVP [1966] ;Avg -HOFm; above avg JAWS; My analysis  avg WAR 4.5;OPC-WRC+ 156; WRC 93. 82/26/83/10 .292; N BA/OPS  .294/.934.   Good comps- J.Mize, H.Greenberg, a better R.Braun.

Don't call him Richard. He was disliked, and disliked the press, the fans, etc. just like Barry Bonds. The "rebellious black" reputation stung, only partly warranted, but like him or not, man could he hit, putting up fabulous numbers in a strong pitching era. Posthumously, this was a bad miss for a B+ HOF player by numbers

Billy Pierce- This was a mild miss. 18 years; 3300 IP. 2 20 W; 1 ERA title. A star ace/near ace hard throwing LHP run preventer for lots of mediocre and no bats CHWS teams in 50's. Slightly  below avg HOFM, JAWS; my analysis- 15-11;222/200/78/134  nERA 3.27;ERA- 82. There are only two pitchers in the entire 20th century to pitch at least 3,000 innings and log an ERA+ of better than Pierce’s 119 that are not in the Hall of Fame. They are Roger Clemens (146 ERA+) and Eddie Cicotte (123). But the only 211 Wins hurts his case.

Good comps-Luis Tiant, CC Sabathia .

He could easily be in, but  I understand why he isn't. Moderate miss for a B HOF player by numbers

Ken Boyer-

He was an excellent player for 10 of his 15 years. 1 MVP. And 5 GG. Below avg HOFm, above avg JAWS. My analysis  avg WAR 4.5;OPC-WRC+ 118; WRC 86. 79/21/83/6/.289; N BA/OPS  .282/.794.   Good comp- Evan Longoria;   Andruw Jones. Like Andruw Jones, the fade after 10 years hurts his case. When factoring the thinnest position represented in HOF, 3B, though there are not many better

Brooks Robinson lite, mostly only because less longevity, but Longoria comp is worthy. Mild miss for a C HOF player by numbers

He could easily be in, but  I understand why he isn't.

Dick Allen should have been elected. Pierce could have been elected.  If Oliva and Kaat are in, then so should Boyer and Pierce.

More on the writers ballot to follow

Last edited by drtannin 2
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Tony Oliva was a great hitter.  Lifetime average over .300.  You are right that he only had 15 seasons, and 3 of them were very limited.  But, he had 220 lifetime home runs, and was always a threat at the plate. Stole close to 100 bases, and had over 100 pinch hits.

He was rookie of the year, batting champ in the AL 3 times, led the AL in hits 5 times, and led the league in outfielder assists a couple times. One gold glove.

I saw him play many times and thought he was really terrific.

Last edited by irwin

Thanks for the write up, Dr, Tannin, always enjoy your take.  Awaiting your thoughts on the writer's ballots.

FWIW and in my not so humble opinion, Shilling/Bonds/Clemens/Sosa, leave them out.  After I'm dead and gone, and the taint and shame for what they injected into their bodies fades from our purview, let the future generations of BB fans consider them on the golden oldies ballot.  At the very least they shouldn't get in before Pete, who's sins were of a different nature.

I've been to Cooperstown.  Seeing Ty Cobb's and Cy Young's number in b&w was awe-inspiring, and not tainted by anything that could have enhanced their performance.  Their legacy demands it:  those knuckleheads don't deserve it. 

MLB 2022 HOF

*My analysis uses my formulae centered on best consecutive years to 7500 PA or 3000 IP

1- For the Golden Age and Early Baseball Era-- for greater details on all candidates, with a few edits from previous - see above

Players-

Minnie Minoso- IN - Grade B+ : Very Good choice!

Jim Kaat- IN - Grade C:  Longevity vote. Tommy John lite? And John is not in! Fair choice

Tony Oliva- IN - Grade C-:   Peak vote.  8 very good to excellent years and nothing else over short career. His selection glosses over too many more worthy OF, let alone others at other positions, and in the Golden Era, like Dick Allen. Fair choice at best

Gil Hodges- not as a player alone, but throw in manager years... Grade B. Good choice

MLB 2022 Writers Ballot

The Newcomers

Alex Rodriguez- Convicted steroid user. One of the best 20 position players of all time. 3 time AL MVP;10 time top 10 in MVP. 22 Years PT, amassed 12,000 PA, 16th All time! 8 years 700 + PA, 5 years  161 or 162 games. Able and available!       

My analysis- 124/45/1217/21/ .303; OPS/WRC+ 151; WRC/Y- 135; WAR/Y -8. And the n BA/OPS .292/.816.

Best SS ever; possibly even best 3B ever [v Schmidt, Mathews, Chipper, Brett]??

A first ballot HOF by any definition... But reread italics. Proof ego and greed can get in the way. Ask J Lo!

NOT IN - but should be

----------------------

David Ortiz- Suspected steroid user. The best or second best DH ever. Very impressive HOF worthy run from 2004-2013. Led Sox to 3 WS wins as Big Papi; Mr.Clutch. Huge Bean Town fan favorite, almost Ted Williams like glorification.

My analysis-  91/36/113/1/.289; OPS/WRC+ 147; WRC/Y- 108; WAR/Y -3.9. And the n BA/OPS .282/.922.

Even as DH only most of his career, HOF worthy numbers, as best or 2nd best DH ever

Not a 1st ballot guy, but close...But reread italics. And we live in a conspiracy theory world for now.

NOT IN - but should be

-----------------------------

Some 1B- Mark Teixeira, Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Justin Morneau;

SS- Jimmy Rollins

OF- Carl Crawford, C- AJ Pierzynski [Played a long time, but not close to HOF]

In brief, none are HOF worthy; only Rollins and Teixeira could  remain on the ballot with >5% for continued review. But it will be close.

1- Teixeira- A very good career with bat and glove that started at 23, but petered out by 30. Analysis- 83/31/98/2/.271; OPS/WRC+ 128; WRC/Y- 96; WAR/Y- 3.5,

n BA/OPS .264/.802.

The Gil Hodges of his era[81/27/93/5/.277], [WAR-3.2;WRC 92; N BA/OPS .266/.809] wo managerial career to push him over

NOT IN

2,3,4- Howard, Fielder, Morneau. With ~5800 PA lifetime, longevity is poor for their HOF candidacy. Yes, the first two averaged 30 HR/Y for their careers, but also 2-2.5 WAR as they couldn't field or run. Morneau could field, but batting numbers were worse

NOT IN

5- Rollins- A very good 17 year career. Very good in all phases. 1 MVP year, 4 GG. Analysis- 98/17/67/33/.268; OPS/WRC+ 98; WRC/Y- 86; WAR/Y- 3.5.  n BA/OPS .264/.721.

We like to think of him as Barry Larkin or Alan Trammell, perhaps because he had the MVP year and played on some great Philly teams, but he's not [both Trammell and Larkin OPS/WRC+/Y ~120 and WAR/Y 4.5], and factoring in the steroid era he played mostly in, he was more like Edgar Renteria [87/10/68/23/.288; OPS/WRC+ 96; WRC/Y- 79; WAR/Y- 2.7.  n BA/OPS .284/.703] than he was those guys. I liked Jimmy Rollins, and would have loved him as my teams shortstop for most of those years, but he was not a HOF.

NOT IN

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SP- Lincecum, Peavy   Short career peaks and lengths doom their candidacies. Both won CY [Lincecum 2 in '08,'09; Peavy 1 in '07], had some AS appearance [Lincecum 4, Peavy 3], but they compiled few innings [L- 1700,P-2400], averaged 160-170 innings per year, had a 3.70 ERA, near mean ERA- [L=97, P=93], and never won 20 in any year. From late '00's through early 10's, they pitched; but, Lincecum was very good to great for 5 years, awful for 5 and Peavy was very good to great for 4 years, mediocre for 11.

NOT IN

1-Curt Schilling- Whatever you think of his xenophobic social media platform, during his playing years, he was a respected presumably saner teammate, and posted HOF credentials. While at the short end of volume compared with prior generations, his numbers [ by multiple criteria] minimally surpass the average standard:  14-9 205/185/43/200/3.36/1.11.  ERA- 76; n ERA 3.04/WAR-5.3. That's TOP 35-45 ALL TIME. Throw in  3 2nd place CY. 6 AS, and excellent post season work. We're used to outrage and conspiracy comments now, and at 71%, it's only a few more votes. Time to move him over the hump.

IN

2,3- Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds-Strongly suspected steroid users.  Jerks, liars, and probably cheats. Terrible relationships with most of the press. This is the last dance before they face the uncertain scrutiny of the Veterans / Era Committee. But let's be clear. Their performance is top 5 of their positions lifetime, no doubt 1st ballot Hall of Fame material.  It was HOF worthy before the reported use of performance enhancers.

Bonds:  118/44/109/23/.315  and 9 WAR/y;200 WRC/y;OPC/WRC+ 200;N BA/OPS .312/1.108  7 MVP, 14 AS,8 GG. Even before purported clear and cream use after 1998, it was 108/33/97/34/.294,  7.5 WAR;122 WRC;OPC/WRC+ 170; yep,he was great

Clemens: 17-9 238/196/74/231/2.94/1.13; ERA- 65;7;n ERA 2.60;WAR-7; 7 CY. Even before purported injections after 1997, the numbers are virtually identical

Stalled at the precipice. The writers won't push them over. Revenge is served cold. It's up to the Veterans.

NOT IN - They should be.

4- Omar Vizquel- The glove played, the bat didn't. He wasn't quite good as Ozzie Smith, in either category, despite similar mold. Or was he?  12000 PA which is 16th all time, massive 24 years playing demanding SS would make any Veterans Committee voter salivate, and there are far more worse SS in the Hall eg Lindstrom, Bancroft .Yes, the bat was league average only in 2 years,  OPS +90 doesn't scream HOF,  and length is a poor excuse eg Baines shouldn't have been voted in either. But compare to the Wiz Ozzie Smith.

OV:  82/6/56/28/.282  2.7 WAR; OPS/WRC 90; WRC/Y 78

OS: 73/2/50/33/.273  4 WAR; OPS/WRC 97; WRC/Y 68

The years of domestic abuse...that won't help his candidacy , but look what we're dealing with here this year?! Will stay on ballot, around 60%,and even though a borderline HOF for me, he'll get there.

NOT IN - not yet, and the Veterans Committee will love him

5- Scott Rolen- This is tough. The bat was very good [hit like Aramis Ramirez], the glove outstanding [fielded like Mike Schmidt], the volume good not great. But its clear, playing 3b a long time is difficult...the least represented Hall position player. He's shy of studs like Beltre, and HOF Brett, Chipper, and even that of best comp is Santo.

Santo-574/83/26/97/.282;5.5 WAR;

Rolen-480/82/21/85/.284/4.5 WAR;

Like Santo, I think he'll get in eventually. Not now. Moves up into the 60's.

NOT IN - not yet

6- Todd Helton I have a soft spot for guys playing the entire career with one team. But his case is good enough by merit. His glove was excellent [3 GG] and so was the bat for 3/4 of his career, 3 Top 10 MVP, 5 AS.

Helton- 102/27/99/3/ .328/   WAR/Y 4.8 ;WRC/Y 118;WRC+OPS+ 140; nBA/OPS .300/.873

Coors bias will hold him back for now, but while the benefits of high altitude are well recognized for hitters, the drawbacks heading to sea level are not. He was a HOF even at loaded 1b position. He was better than you thought.

Won't get in now, but will get big boost, move up into striking range upper 50-low 60%.

NOT IN - not yet

7- Billy Wagner- The rate numbers as well as the eye test tell you this is a HOF. K/9 12 in an era when that was rare. 7 time AS. 2 Time top 10 CY, as a reliever. The volume is shy. And there is antireliever bias- see above Papelbon, Nathan, which is partly justifiable. He won't get in now, but I suspect a big move up into the upper 50's.

How's 900 IP of 60/40/20/80 with 2.31 ERA [ERA- OF 53]

NOT IN - not yet

8- Jeff Kent- The bat plays [most HR by 2b], the glove not so much, and he was petulant. But compared to all 2B, he is an average to slightly below HOF. It sucks to be in Barry Bonds' shadow.

Man, he is unheralded as was McGriff. He's in the same league as Biggio, and Sandberg with the bat. 4 times top 10, once MVP.

Kent- 87/25/99/.294/ 4 WAR; 98 WRC; WRC+/OPS+ 127.

With two years after this, it will be an arduous climb from 32% Won't get in now, but will also move up and writers get more time to reflect. I suspect the Veterans Committee will get their chance.

NOT IN - not yet, probably not by BBWAA

9- Andruw Jones- Man, the crash hurt his case from wear and tear in CF. From age 20-30 he was a HOF, factoring in the world class elite defense. 2/3 of his batting career was very good, but 1/3 was poor. He batted over .277 once; his lifetime BA was well [10 points] below league average. Chicks dig the long ball, but he sold out for it, and didn't recover. And that glove tailed off too at the end.

Jones- 91/32/96/12/.263  WAR 4.0 WRC/OPS+ 114;WRC/Y 92

He died before the finish line after leading the race. Sometimes the tortoise wins. I suspect he winds up into same bin as predecessor and best comp Dale Murphy, or Jim Edmonds...the Hall of the Very Good/Just Missed. But of the 3 OF, he has the best shot to sneak in.

10- Torii Hunter A classic Hall of the Very Good player. Did it all, just not to HOF level with only 1 time top 10 MVP. Great defense best of 5 tools. And nice guy with great smile while robbing those homers.

83/23/89/13/.282  3.5 WAR; WRC- 84 WRC/OPS+ 116

11- Bobby Abreu- Same destination as Andruw. One of the most underrated bats of his time. Five tool superstar, though glove was average.

Abreu- 105/22/97/28/ .302/ WAR 4.6 WRC 121; WRC/OPS+ 135

NOT IN - The climb for Jones at 33% is long, but he stays on the ballot for now; whether the writers dig the long ball as much as chicks we will have to see. But, the climb for Hunter and Abreu is likely too much from 9.55 and 9% and they risk possibly dropping off ballot . Too bad.

12,13,14  Gary Sheffield, Manny Ramirez, Sammy Sosa

Sheffield and Manny DEFINITELY have HOF numbers. Sosa is lower end HOF with a high peak. PED rules firmly in place will exclude Manny. Sosa had some great years, Sheffield more very good to excellent years, but the shroud is strong, and if Bonds and Clemens will wait, these guys most certainly will as well. Veterans Committee will review their resumes.

Sheff- 92/31/95/13/.304   WAR 4.8; WRC 113;WRC/OPS+ 153

Manny- 105/39/121/2/.318  WAR 5.5;WRC 131;WRC/OPS+ 158

Sosa- 101/45/116/14/.285  WAR 4.5; WRC 112;WRC/OPS+ 137

NOT IN -

14,15,16 Andy Pettitte, Tim Hudson, Mark Buehrle- Basically the same stats

Pettitte 16-9/209/218/65/154/3.86/1.35/   ERA- 85;N ERA 3.42/3.9 WAR

Buerhle- 14-11/219/231/49/126/3.81/1.28/  ERA- 86;N ERA 3.42/4.1 WAR

Hudson- 14-8/197/186/58/133/3.45/1.23/   ERA- 85;N ERA 3.29/ 3.7 WAR

Splitting hairs. Pettitte is an all time Yank, and Buerhle an all timeChiSox, but they are still borderline especially since both were hittable even despite steroid era work, with higher than average ERA's, lower WAR and IP than many HOF. This is going to be reevaluated going forward as SP pitch fewer innings; I suspect they will begin to look better and better as 200 IP SP disappear as a species. For now, they stay on the ballot, but in now..no.

NOT IN -

That leaves us with ...

1 IN-  Schilling

...7 others that should be, but smell of too much tainted testosterone;   for Bonds, Clemens and Sosa, they get to wait another 5 years and then more scrutiny under Veterans judges eyes periodically. Oooh. For Big Papi, it's a high % votes, A Rod a lesser %, but they get to be judged for 9 more years.

...and big moves up into contention by Helton, Wagner, Vizquel, Rolen, and smaller moves by Andr Jones, Kent.

...staying put are Pettitte, Buehrle, Hudson in low teens

...and welcome to the 10 year cycle Teixeira, Rollins, and maybe Papelbon, Nathan

Happy Holidays to all. Cheers to WWS Colleagues. And put Cooperstown on the bucket list!

Last edited by drtannin 2

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