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How does one find the next young superstar?

Can stats in the Minor Leagues predict future success? What about age at progression? Is the younger the higher the better?

Reviewing recent and older data, some things have become true.

-The majors are dipping deeper into the farm systems to bring up players earlier. Rarely, has the super young player spent any significant time, often none, at AAA. AAA has become a playground for slightly older players to work out flaws and other kinks, and former major leaguers to recover past mojo.

-1st draft picks overall have an excellent record of success if-
----they are position players [vs pitchers]
----they are 5 tool guys to start with

-The draft is more of a crap shoot further down the line than in other sports. Examples abound
Billy Beane became a great GM, but a lousy player bust. Pujols was 13th round, Piazza 16th

-More and more High School Studs are succeeding. College play is not a measure of extra success, in fact more of a delay than a progression in skill development

---
So...

Comparing stud young talented position players drafted in WWS out of high school,
where does Bryce Harper stand?
For WWS fantasy purposes, does reward outweigh risk as 22nd round keeper so early?

In this discussion, I will ignore the huge impact for trading purposes, a late round keeper type has.


MLB DRAFT RANK, BP RANK, AGE @A-AA / BA-HR-SB / BP RANK; YEAR IN MLB / STAR MLB // DRAFTED IN WWS ;*PCL

HARPER 18 / .297 - 17- 26 / - / - / 22ND RND
---------------
Exhibit A-
#1 [#2] J. UPTON 19 / .319 - 18- 19 / [#9] NEXT / 2ND NEXT / 11TH RND
# 12 [#14] BRUCE 20 / .319 -26 -8 / [#1] NEXT / 2ND NEXT / 18TH RND
2nd round draft STANTON 19 / .255 - 28 -3/ [#3] NEXT / 2ND NEXT / 22ND RND
#5 [#29] RASMUS 18 / .275 - 29- 18 / 2ND NEXT]/ 2ND NEXT [but injury held him back 1 year]
#2 [#13] MOUSTAKAS 20 / .250 -13 -10 / [#9] 2ND NEXT / 16TH RND
#14 [#5] HEYWARD 19 / .323 - 17 -10 / [#1] 2ND NEXT / - / 8TH RND
#11 [#50] MCCUTCHEN 19 /.294-17- 23 / 3RD NEXT /4TH NEXT /
#3 [#7] LONGORIA 20 / .298- 14- 3 / [#8] NEXT / 2ND NEXT / 9TH RND
#4 ZIMMERMAN 20 / .336 -11 -1 / [#15]NEXT / 2ND NEXT/ 7TH RND

Of all the best MINOR League Prospects drafted by WWS, only Stanton was drafted late, but he is BA flawed

Exhibit B-Superstar position players selected #1 out of high school since 1985 and A-AA performance
#1 GRIFFEY JR 18 .325 – 13- 36 [80% @ A] / NEXT / 2ND NEXT
#1 A ROD 18 .312 –21- 20 / SAME / 2ND NEXT
#1 CHIPPER 20 .311- 13- 22 / SAME/ 2ND NEXT
#1 [#4] JOE MAUER 20 .338-5-3 / NEXT/ 2ND NEXT
#1 [#3] DELMON YOUNG .326 23- 22/ NEXT/ 2ND NEXT
#1 [#21] BJ UPTON .297-8-40 / NEXT/ 3RD NEXT
Harpers numbers match up just fine. The only NON SUPERSTAR #1’ s are oddly enough BJ Upton, Delmon Young, and Tim Beckham.
Adrian Gonzalez took his time developing in the minors and was traded Note: All are Tampa Bay draftees
Clearly many lesser players have busted, others [Hamilton] were derailed by other issues. But few #1’s bust
Exhibit C- Some surprises were underwhelming
PUJOLS 20 .314 –19-4 [80% @ A] / NEXT / ALSO NEXT
CABRERA 19 .274- 9 –10 / NEXT/ 2ND NEXT
Exhibit D- Current best prospects so far undrafted in WWS A-AA
#16 [#81]LAWRIE 19 / .274 13- 19 / [#40] 2ND NEXT / 3RD/ --?
#3 [#24] HOSMER 19 / .241 -11 -6 / [#3] NEXT / ? / ?
#25 [#85]TROUT 19 / .326 –11- 33/ [#2] SAME / ? / ?
So what can we say
-THE BEST YOUNGEST PROSPECTS UNDER 20 WERE IN MLB THE YEAR AFTER PLAYING AA
-NUMBER #1 DRAFTED HITTERS ARE SO FOR A REASON AND WILL PRODUCE BIG TIME WITHIN 2 YEARS OF AA
-OF BEST MILB PROSPECTS DRAFTED BY WWS, W COMPARABLE SPEED AND POWER = AVG 14TH ROUND WHICH IS PRETTY EARLY ALL THINGS CONSIDERED

CONCLUSION-
1-REWARD FAR OUTWEIGHS RISK AT 22ND ROUND FOR BRYCE HARPER
2-AN EARLY MLB DRAFTED STUD ALSO PICKED FOR FANTASY IN THE LAST FEW ROUNDS [EG STANTON] IS A GREAT KEEPER VALUE
Original Post

Replies sorted oldest to newest

quote:
Originally posted by TPEwinedrinker:
When I played D1 basketball for 2 years, we called them 11a.m. Assassins... Look great in practice, but can't perform when the bright lights came on.


Okay, TPE, I need more info now. Seeing you in your sartorial splendor (watch "When It Was a Game" and you will appreciate the phrase), I must admit being a little close-minded and never would have thought you were a D-1 athlete (although maybe the Chuck Taylor's should have clued me in Wink). Where did you play and when? I think I recall that you might have grown up in the Bay Area as well. Please correct me if I am wrong. I look forward to hearing about it.
quote:
Originally posted by Dom'n'Vin'sDad:
Excellent! So, high school in the Bay Area as well?

And sorry for the hi-jack Dr. T!!!

I grew up in the bay area, but was in foster homes and attended 9 different schools in the east bay between k-7, as I went from one foster home to the next. At 12, I moved to Marin and spent my last year of middle school and my first 2 years of high school there. I was traveling on the AAU circuit in the summers and caught the attention of some east coast prep schools, and so at 16 I emancipated myself, and spent my last 2 years on the east coast.

But back to the topic, playing on the AAU circuit, I had the opportunity to compete against some of the best (I've matched up against Kobe, Stephon Marbury, Paul Pierce, Rip Hamilton, Baron Davis, Mike Bibby, etc). Bibby was by far the most difficult- just unbelievably strong as a prep and merciless in posting up smaller defenders- by the end of the game, it felt like you had been guarding a Mack Truck. But at the same time, some of the most hyped prep players when I was in high school were guys like Schea Cotton and Felipe Lopez- these guys were 1st team Parade All-Americans and can't miss pro-prospects, and yet they didn't even have successful college careers. In the Bay Area alone, Ray Young was the most celebrated prep since Jason Kidd and a McDonald's All American and yet was a disappointment at UCLA. The most tragic was Winters Patterson- a great kid and an unbelievable basketball talent out of Balboa who dropped a CA state-record 82 against Skyline yet passed away 1.5 years later on the courts due to a heart condition. Like I said, popcorn in a kettle.
quote:
Originally posted by mountainman:
If anyone lives near AAA baseball, I can't recommend enough taking in games at that level. Being lifelong Angel fans and living in Park City Utah last Summer gave us the Angel's AAA team in SLC. Excellent baseball entertainment, next to nothing for tickets and got to watch quite a few players there that are in the bigs now.


Ditto. I lived in Durham, NC for 4 years and went to more than a fair share of Bulls games (including the last year of the old DAB). Good times!
quote:
Originally posted by Dom'n'Vin'sDad:
quote:
Originally posted by TPEwinedrinker:
I moved to Marin and spent my last year of middle school and my first 2 years of high school there.

Kobe, Stephon Marbury, Paul Pierce, Rip Hamilton, Baron Davis, Mike Bibby, etc)..


Terra Linda, perhaps?

And boy are you a youngster!

Just up the road at San Marin... Although I dated a TL cheerleader... Does that count? As for my age, I am 6 days older than Kobe.
quote:
Originally posted by TPEwinedrinker:
quote:
Originally posted by Dom'n'Vin'sDad:
quote:
Originally posted by TPEwinedrinker:
I moved to Marin and spent my last year of middle school and my first 2 years of high school there.

Kobe, Stephon Marbury, Paul Pierce, Rip Hamilton, Baron Davis, Mike Bibby, etc)..


Terra Linda, perhaps?

And boy are you a youngster!

Just up the road at San Marin... Although I dated a TL cheerleader... Does that count? As for my age, I am 6 days older than Kobe.


We have a lot to talk about. I dated a girl from San Marin (way back), my wife went to TL (you didn't date her, that much I can promise - she hates cheerleaders Wink), my anniversary is two days from your birthday, and again, you are a youngster.

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