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yes and no. big difference being that the houses were purchased with highly leveraged funds, and with the pure intention of turning a profit.

unless i'm mistaken, these bottles need to be paid for in full at auction end, so at the very end the owner still owns something. the asset may be over-valued, but you own it. in the case of the housing bubble, nobody but the banks owned anything.

i definitely think there's a huge bubble, and we may see some correction. but i doubt we will see a massive implosion unless the very wealthy buyers of these wines go completely bankrupt, along with the next 1,000 extremely wealthy people standing a line right behind them who were just outbid.
Jorge, my point is the prices are at the point where the "next 1,000 extremely wealthy people standing a line right behind them who were just outbid" are no longer there. The prices are going up to the point where there are no buyers, like housing. The fact that houses were purchased with leveraged funds was irrelevant until they ran out of buyers to flip to. At some point the same thing will happen here. The cellars will fill up and there wont be any more buyers at that price point.

There is no rationalization in auction prices any longer. If that spreads to retail a collapse will soon follow.

Here is an example from last weekend in Chicago. I went to the HDH live auction. I had my eye on a couple of lots. I did my researcher before hand and had extensive notes on avg auction prices, what they were going for at retail, ect. A 2 bottle lot of 1985 Krug went for $950, not including the 20% buyers premium. There are bottles on wine searcher for well under $350. I was sitting at the table next to the guy who won and every time he raised his paddle I had to resist the urge to reach over and slap it out of his hand.

I buy some really expensive wine. Im not bragging, but I do. I buy more expensive wine than anyone I know except some of people on this board. I am now priced out of Lafite and the rest of the first growths arent far behind. Eventually the Asian market will find the next cool thing and prices will plummet.
Hi All.

I am a regular reader of the forums, even though I don't participate often.

I am always interested in 1st growth for my collection. If any of you are interested in selling you can reach me at WineJones at Gmail.com

send me your list and price. I don't believe in the auction values, but I have no problem paying fair market for well stored bottles. I figure that most of you walk the walk as much as talk the talk.

I look forward to hearing from you.
quote:
Originally posted by jburman82:
Jorge, my point is the prices are at the point where the "next 1,000 extremely wealthy people standing a line right behind them who were just outbid" are no longer there. The prices are going up to the point where there are no buyers, like housing. The fact that houses were purchased with leveraged funds was irrelevant until they ran out of buyers to flip to. At some point the same thing will happen here. The cellars will fill up and there wont be any more buyers at that price point.

There is no rationalization in auction prices any longer. If that spreads to retail a collapse will soon follow.

Here is an example from last weekend in Chicago. I went to the HDH live auction. I had my eye on a couple of lots. I did my researcher before hand and had extensive notes on avg auction prices, what they were going for at retail, ect. A 2 bottle lot of 1985 Krug went for $950, not including the 20% buyers premium. There are bottles on wine searcher for well under $350. I was sitting at the table next to the guy who won and every time he raised his paddle I had to resist the urge to reach over and slap it out of his hand.

I buy some really expensive wine. Im not bragging, but I do. I buy more expensive wine than anyone I know except some of people on this board. I am now priced out of Lafite and the rest of the first growths arent far behind. Eventually the Asian market will find the next cool thing and prices will plummet.


but that's the thing, from what i'm gathering, there are still plenty of people willing to pay the high prices. the Krug auction only got to $950 because there was someone right behind him willing to pay $900.

i don't think there's any argument that prices are extremely high, but at this point in time, the demand continues to exist.

like theweb said, so many markets are growing so rapidly around the world, that i just don't see a slowdown. China's GDP was considered "sluggish" this last reported quarter with just under 10% growth, India grew just under 7% during the "global economic meltdown" of 2009, and Brazil is a sleeping dragon.

a lot more people are able to play in the wine market now at a level where prices don't matter, and that's what drives things completely out of wack.

what i'm truly curious about, and completely clueless, is whether or not the people buying these wines are buying them to flip, or buying them because they have boatloads of money and are just collecting trophies / something nice to make sangria with.

if the people buying these wines are "investing" in them, then i can see a pretty big collapse, but from what i've read, the buyers are just rich people who don't care. they're buying wine as a luxury, not as an investment. if they can flip it a year later, great, if they can't then they'll just drink it up and not care less.

either way, totally sucks... all i can afford now are the yellowtail replicas

btw, working on heat tix for saturday....
I made some inquiries today and have commissioned a high end picture framer to design an ornate wall mounted picture frame that will hold a bottle of lafite in the centre of the frame, held by almost invisible twine.

I'm going to hang it in my cellar - I've always said fine wine is in the same category as fine art, so might as well have Lafite art on my wall Smile
quote:
Originally posted by WineJones1:
Hi All.

I am a regular reader of the forums, even though I don't participate often.

I am always interested in 1st growth for my collection. If any of you are interested in selling you can reach me at WineJones at Gmail.com

send me your list and price. I don't believe in the auction values, but I have no problem paying fair market for well stored bottles. I figure that most of you walk the walk as much as talk the talk.

I look forward to hearing from you.


Based on the article (and if my conversion factor of 1.6 $ to pound is correct) a bottle of 00 Lafite would be selling for about $12k Eek! that would get my attention. Otherwise, I will hang on to the few that I have and enjoy them myself someday. Welcome to the forums.
Back on topic.....

Early return shows that Sotheby's Lafite chateau direct auction result is a one time anomaly. That particular auction was held in Hong Kong on Oct 29th. The day after on 30th, Sotheby's had another auction in Hong Kong featuring a collection from SK Group Networks(South Korean Company). While the Lafite prices in this auction was still higher than market, it did have a significant drop overnight. For example, the 2003 Lafite was down 32% comparing the two auctions. The residual crowd from the day before probably drove the price above market on the 30th.

Acker just had their auction in Hong Kong on November 5th, looks like the Lafite prices are back to "normal".....
This almost reminds me of the 1980's, when the Japanese economy was soaring and land values in Tokyo alone exceeded the entire U.S.

Everyone was bemoaning the decline and fall of the U.S.

And the Japanese were paying outrageous prices for U.S. assets, like properties in Hawaii and NY (Rockefeller Center was a well-known buy). Well, that didn't last long, and the bubble burst.

So, if the Asians want to spend outrageous amounts for Lafite, let them. Maybe it will help adjust the trade balance.
I hope you don't mind me asking, but I been considering selling as well. Which auction house did you send your wine to. How much did it sell for and how much did they charge you. Were you happy with the transaction??? Thanks
quote:
Originally posted by wineismylife:
quote:
Originally posted by Red guy in a blue state:
WILM:
Are you selling?


Not quite. I just sent off a case of 2000 Carruades in OWC to auction to ride the coat tails of big brother Lafite. Wink
quote:
Originally posted by Rothko:
This almost reminds me of the 1980's, when the Japanese economy was soaring and land values in Tokyo alone exceeded the entire U.S.

Everyone was bemoaning the decline and fall of the U.S.

And the Japanese were paying outrageous prices for U.S. assets, like properties in Hawaii and NY (Rockefeller Center was a well-known buy). Well, that didn't last long, and the bubble burst.

So, if the Asians want to spend outrageous amounts for Lafite, let them. Maybe it will help adjust the trade balance.


Rothko, missed you at the BCLC 30th annoversary party. We'll have to catch up soon.
quote:
Originally posted by Beachrooster:
I hope you don't mind me asking, but I been considering selling as well. Which auction house did you send your wine to. How much did it sell for and how much did they charge you. Were you happy with the transaction??? Thanks
quote:
Originally posted by wineismylife:
quote:
Originally posted by Red guy in a blue state:
WILM:
Are you selling?


Not quite. I just sent off a case of 2000 Carruades in OWC to auction to ride the coat tails of big brother Lafite. Wink


wiml, hope you don't mind me answering this.

Beachrooster, wiml's case of Carruades de Lafite is part of our Winter Live Auctions on December 5th. I work for Spectrum Wine Auctions which is just down the street from you, we are located in Irvine.

Seller's commission starts at 10% and goes down based on the total value of your consignment.

I am currently traveling and will be back in the office next week. If you would like to shoot me an e-mail or give me a call, we can chat further on what you would like to do.

Regards.

Powell Yang
e-mail: "my moniker" at spectrumwine dot com
888.982.1982 ext 187
quote:
Originally posted by wine+art:
quote:
Originally posted by Whitey:
quote:
Originally posted by wineismylife:
Needless to say I'm very, very Big Grin


Looks like next Dallas offline is on Joe Smile


wiml, excellent.

As you know, I sold mine for $3800 with one call.

I guess I should have given it to pyang when we were all together recently.

I do not recall what we paid. Confused


If you bought it en primeur like I did or as soon as one of our local ITB guys got it in I'm betting you paid right around $45.00 a bottle.
quote:
Originally posted by wineismylife:
quote:
Originally posted by wine+art:
quote:
Originally posted by Whitey:
quote:
Originally posted by wineismylife:
Needless to say I'm very, very Big Grin


Looks like next Dallas offline is on Joe Smile


wiml, excellent.

As you know, I sold mine for $3800 with one call.

I guess I should have given it to pyang when we were all together recently.

I do not recall what we paid. Confused


If you bought it en primeur like I did or as soon as one of our local ITB guys got it in I'm betting you paid right around $45.00 a bottle.


You got me my case...or something. I have never bought this wine before.

I also ended up with 6 extra bottles. Confused

Oh well. Smile
quote:
Originally posted by wine+art:
Has anyone ever tasted this wine? I'm glad wiml advised me of current pricing so I could sell, but was curious how the wine tasted.

I still have no clue how I ended up with 18 bottles of this wine. Confused


I tasted it on release. Whatever my impressions were, they were good enough that I bought 6 bottles, and was given the en primeur price by my retailer. I received another from a very generous friend for my birthday a while back. Cool I have never once sold a bottle that I purchased for consumption, but this thread has me thinking about it......

PH
quote:
Originally posted by PurpleHaze:
quote:
Originally posted by wine+art:
Has anyone ever tasted this wine? I'm glad wiml advised me of current pricing so I could sell, but was curious how the wine tasted.

I still have no clue how I ended up with 18 bottles of this wine. Confused


I tasted it on release. Whatever my impressions were, they were good enough that I bought 6 bottles, and was given the en primeur price by my retailer. I received another from a very generous friend for my birthday a while back. Cool I have never once sold a bottle that I purchased for consumption, but this thread has me thinking about it......

PH


PH, I understand. That said, once wiml told me the insane price, I made one call and sold a case for $3800, which it appears was well under current market. Eek

I'm thinking of selling the other 6 I found. I might need to buy wiml dinner next time. Wink
I tasted a singleton bottle over 24 hours or so back in 2004. My best guess of what it would score back then was around the 92 point mark. Many notes since then have come in below which is to be expected since so many were clubbing baby seals like I did and they probably have the palate of filter feeders. Wink Nonetheless, it is likely a low 90ish kind of a wine. Good, not great is my guess. For me it definitely wasn't worth holding onto at the prices I was seeing. I cashed in before the Chinese Lafite bubble bursts.
Decanter: "Lafite 2008 price rises 20% following Chinese symbol announcement"

I bet nobody is more surprised than Eric de Rothschild. Imagine, a kind, selfless gesture like Eric's was returned many times in kind.

Talk about a pathetic pander! Next vintage, who knows, maybe the Lafite label will be kakiemon and not sepia toned. I wouldn't rule it out.

Oh well, we'll see if this price frenzy abroad translates to any incrementality on the auction market in Ontario. If it does, I'll send my wee 3 bottles of '08 futures to auction. I agree with the analysts who see a bubble... this is exactly what the Chinese did with Pu-erh tea and will with the next consumable status symbol.
quote:
Originally posted by wine+art:
Has anyone ever tasted this wine?

I recall picking up 3 bottles of this wine at Binny's a couple of years back for $37 a piece. Don't recall the vintage and they are long since consumed. I never wrote notes that I can recall but do remember it being a pleasent high 80s wine. Nice, but not more than that. If I had any quantities of this in my cellar, they'd be on the next flight HK in a heart-beat...

Well done, you who have profited from the market on this. (applause)
On a side note, there is a pilot that flies in from Hong Kong every month to DWF. He will spend $10,000 - $20,000 on each visit, take the wine back to Hong Kong, and sell it. The last time he was in the store, I was there. He dropped $27,000 that day, then said he was off to his "other" favorite shops. Smile

If he is making anywhere near the profits we are seeing here on this thread, he is making serious money.
quote:
Originally posted by wine+art:
On a side note, there is a pilot that flies in from Hong Kong every month to DWF. He will spend $10,000 - $20,000 on each visit, take the wine back to Hong Kong, and sell it. The last time he was in the store, I was there. He dropped $27,000 that day, then said he was off to his "other" favorite shops. Smile

If he is making anywhere near the profits we are seeing here on this thread, he is making serious money.


I wonder if his first bag flies free.
quote:
Originally posted by wine+art:
On a side note, there is a pilot that flies in from Hong Kong every month to DWF. He will spend $10,000 - $20,000 on each visit, take the wine back to Hong Kong, and sell it. The last time he was in the store, I was there. He dropped $27,000 that day, then said he was off to his "other" favorite shops. Smile

If he is making anywhere near the profits we are seeing here on this thread, he is making serious money.

It goes both ways. Smile This also happens in Toronto, where cases upon cases of, say, DRC and Yquem end up at wine storage facilities in Toronto, shuttled from private jet via airport limo. An LCBO official once quipped to me, "there's more DRC at some LCBO auctions than we know Halpern is bringing in." If you're wealthy and powerful in Toronto, the LCBO is looking the other way...
quote:
Originally posted by KSC02:
quote:
Originally posted by wine+art:
quote:
Originally posted by KSC02:
the SAQ Signature just released 34 bottles of the '82 Gruaud Larose for $2,020.00 each! Eek

And ya thought pricing was just crazy in HK!!!

This wine goes for around $425 in Texas.

It's presently listed on winebid at $255.


As a reserve?
Congrats to wiml and w+a. Currently, I ran into someone willing to part with a few bottles of the 05 Lafite below $1000 ea. So it's becoming very tempting for me to try riding on this bubble before it burst too. But I have no idea how to proceed, or even to proceed with this wild goose lafite hunt or not. I am not familiar with the sales channels in Hong Kong, and the wine is in USA right now, so shipping & storage would be required. I have a few questions hoping you Bordeaux and Lafite experts could shred some lights on, thanks so much. Any help would be appreciated.

1. What are some common ways to spot/avoid counterfeit Lafite bottles?
2. What's the current fair asking price for the 05 vintage? The price range on W-S has a huge spread btw $900 to $2000. (confused)
3. What are the best channels to sell it in HK or USA ?
quote:
Originally posted by Gundam:
1. What are some common ways to spot/avoid counterfeit Lafite bottles?
2. What's the current fair asking price for the 05 vintage? The price range on W-S has a huge spread btw $900 to $2000. (confused)
3. What are the best channels to sell it in HK or USA ?


1. For the newer Lafite, there is less to worry about. Easiest way is go on line and look at other bottle pictures and compare to what you have on hand.

2. We sold numerous cases of 2005 Lafite during our just concluded Winter Live Auction (Spectrum Wine Auctions). Multiple 12-pack OWC cases went for $16,000/case. High hammer was a 6-pack OWC that went for $8,500/case.

3. Obviously, if you can find a private buyer directly in HK or China, that's the best way to go on selling these wine. However, that also comes with risk of dealing with complete stranger in another country. With Spectrum's live and internet auctions, we capture both domestic and international market, including China and Hong Kong.

If you have any other questions, please feel free to give me a ring in the office. 949.748.4845 or 888.982.1982, ask for Powell Yang.

Thanks.
quote:
Originally posted by pyang:
1. For the newer Lafite, there is less to worry about. Easiest way is go on line and look at other bottle pictures and compare to what you have on hand.

2. We sold numerous cases of 2005 Lafite during our just concluded Winter Live Auction (Spectrum Wine Auctions). Multiple 12-pack OWC cases went for $16,000/case. High hammer was a 6-pack OWC that went for $8,500/case.

3. Obviously, if you can find a private buyer directly in HK or China, that's the best way to go on selling these wine. However, that also comes with risk of dealing with complete stranger in another country. With Spectrum's live and internet auctions, we capture both domestic and international market, including China and Hong Kong.

If you have any other questions, please feel free to give me a ring in the office. 949.748.4845 or 888.982.1982, ask for Powell Yang.
Thanks.

Thanks so much for the tips. 1st things first, I'll go check the bottle conditions next week and what price I can snatch them at.
quote:
Originally posted by Gundam:
quote:
Originally posted by pyang:
1. For the newer Lafite, there is less to worry about. Easiest way is go on line and look at other bottle pictures and compare to what you have on hand.

2. We sold numerous cases of 2005 Lafite during our just concluded Winter Live Auction (Spectrum Wine Auctions). Multiple 12-pack OWC cases went for $16,000/case. High hammer was a 6-pack OWC that went for $8,500/case.

3. Obviously, if you can find a private buyer directly in HK or China, that's the best way to go on selling these wine. However, that also comes with risk of dealing with complete stranger in another country. With Spectrum's live and internet auctions, we capture both domestic and international market, including China and Hong Kong.

If you have any other questions, please feel free to give me a ring in the office. 949.748.4845 or 888.982.1982, ask for Powell Yang.
Thanks.

Thanks so much for the tips. 1st things first, I'll go check the bottle conditions next week and what price I can snatch them at.


Cool, let me know if you have any other questions.

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