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Rothko posted:

If you haven't checked out this site, you should:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis...40299423467b48e9ecf6

It's very cool.

It also demonstrates that this virus isn't going to be contained, and it's going to be global.

 

 

 

 

I believe the actual cases are dramatically above the documented cases, especially in China.  I wouldn't trust anything China says about the corona virus.  It will definitely spread, hopefully spring weather will help reduce the cases.  Several problems in dealing with this is the long timeframe for developing symptoms and transmission of the virus before getting any symptoms.

The Old Man posted:

"Trump, seeking to tamp down fears of coronavirus, names Pence to lead response"

See, everything's under control. Pence issued his first guideline for dealing with the virus: "Pray."

Really.  This is scarier than the virus.  Why not have a medical professional, like Fauci, lead such an effort??

haggis posted:
The Old Man posted:

"Trump, seeking to tamp down fears of coronavirus, names Pence to lead response"

See, everything's under control. Pence issued his first guideline for dealing with the virus: "Pray."

Really.  This is scarier than the virus.  Why not have a medical professional, like Fauci, lead such an effort??

Of course.

Trump's incompetence may cost lives and livelihoods.  

On the way back into the US this past Saturday night, we were "screened" for coronavirus.

A person asked us if we had been to China in the prior 14 days. We said "no."  End of screening.

Not sure if this is feasible, but one wonders if the state department or homeland security has a computer base of people traveling on US passports who have used them to get into China or s. Korea or Italy or Iran  or other virus affected areas recently, and if inquiries can be made of those people to really assess the virulence of the virus.  Would such a "search" be deemed "unreasonable" (under the 4th amendment) particularly insofar as no criminal activity on the part of such a traveler would be suspected?  Would this be a scientifically sound approach?

There sure was a lot of coughing on the plane, though perhaps I was just more sensitive to it. Even in the Caribbean, when we entered Barbados, we had to fill out a paper about our travel in the past 14 days, and the same when we entered Grenada.

About 675,000 people died in 1918-1919 from the flu in the United States. A staggering number considering that the population then was about 1/3 of what we have now, so this is the equivalent of about 2 million deaths today.  Geez.

 

 

5 cases in Maryland.  At least 4 associated with foreign travel. Perhaps you saw Governor Hogan on Meet the Press yesterday.  He's a Republican in a very blue state. He has at least a 70% approval rating.  I hope he runs for President next time around.  His problem is that he is rational, intelligent, calm, and honest. Might disqualify him.

Coachella has been postponed.

In regards to the mortality rate, we don't have great information yet.  The best right now is probably from South Korea which has decent medical care and has significant testing.  The mortality rate (deaths compared to diagnosed cases ) is 0.6%.  My guess is the % compared to contracted cases is significantly lower and closer to the regular flu, as many people may have contracted the virus and not reported it or had it diagnosed.

Also of note, the average age of people dying in the US from the virus is 80 years old.

I understand being cautious, but I do think that there has been a big overreaction to the situation.

Almost a year ago we booked a Mediterranean cruise starting in Venice May 4 and ending Barcelona three weeks later. Needless to say we cancelled, yesterday. 😢

 

The highlight for me was going to be two days at the Monte Carlo Grand Prix, and we also have a car and driver booked for a private tour of Ornellaia followed by a late lunch at Sassicaia. I’m a bit choked that these things won’t be happening. I feel very sorry for the people in Italy and all the other areas around the globe who are being affected daily by this epidemic, physically, psychologically, and financially.

The cruise line’s been pretty good about cancellation, with full refund but only as future cruise credit to be used within 1 year of our embarkation date. Under the circumstances, that’s pretty fair.

thistlintom posted:

Coachella has been postponed.

In regards to the mortality rate, we don't have great information yet.  The best right now is probably from South Korea which has decent medical care and has significant testing.  The mortality rate (deaths compared to diagnosed cases ) is 0.6%.  My guess is the % compared to contracted cases is significantly lower and closer to the regular flu, as many people may have contracted the virus and not reported it or had it diagnosed.

Also of note, the average age of people dying in the US from the virus is 80 years old.

I understand being cautious, but I do think that there has been a big overreaction to the situation.

Over 630 dead from it in Italy. 4,000 worldwide. I’m not advocating panic, but what’s the quantity of deaths in the United States that would change your mind about things being an overreaction? Serious question, asked respectfully.

Last edited by billhike
billhike posted:

Pearl Jam has postponed their tour. I have tickets for a metal show in early April, and I won’t be shocked if it’s called off.

The majority of live music I go see involves sweaty bodies in close contact in confined spaces. 

Went to a concert Saturday night at my favorite local club and coughed my way to the front row.

 

Too bad on PJ. Eddie went to HS locally and has been a big supporter of the theatre program there which was his support system when he was there. The theatre building would not be there without his support. Its been a major part of my daughter's HS experience and a life changer being a part of that program. He's a really great human being

Last edited by bomba503

My older son is home on Spring Break from college, and his school just sent an email that they are going to have virtual classes only for the time being and he shouldn't go back.

My younger son's local high school is already asking all the parents about in-home internet and computer access for virtual classes, and I'm anticipating that they are going to shut down as well in the next week or two.

Crazy night for us. We have a son in Ireland who just had to book a flight home tomorrow to avoid another 30 days there. Also have two at home on spring break, with one having his break extended one week and another in med school told she has to be at school Monday for a meeting. Totally insane having to cancel and rebook flights with everything changing so fast.

Here's what has to happen and will partially happen naturally by itself. People 70 and up and those with compromised immune systems need to go out as little as possible, stay at home. Not going out at all would be best. Everything can be delivered to them through Amazon, Uber Eats etc. They would receive each package using a new set of gloves and would give the packaging a light once over with antiseptic wipes. Meanwhile the rest of society could go on with basketball games and trips to Las Vegas. However they would have to know the following: If they're over 70, they are there at their own risk. Younger people will know the risk is minimal, probably even less than that of dying of the yearly flu. (Already a very small percent in their demographic.)  They would also have to aware that they could not go visit a relative or friend in the compromised group without putting on full body protection.

I believe there's no better way to handle this responsibly and yet also with the least amount of impact to society in general.

Last edited by The Old Man
irwin posted:
italianwino posted:

There is a drug called Kevzara which treats RA that could benefit patients who are coronavirus positive. Only time will tell.

 

Is there a scientific basis for your statement? Or is this just some advertisement for the company that makes this drug.

I tried looking it up but any reference to this and the outbreak are at weird sites with lots of popup advertising. Some of the sites just have weird names like, fiercepharma.

All public schools in Maryland closed for 2 weeks or so. The Catholic schools are following suit, and I suppose many other private schools will do likewise.  Full scale panic has set in. We're supposed to go out to eat Saturday night with another couple, and they are afraid to go.  Our synagogue has canceled religious services for the next two weeks.  The Courts are not having any jury trials for the next three weeks.  I was supposed to have a hearing this Tuesday in one of the courts, but they announced that they are closing.  The Governor has called out the National Guard.  Not sure why. You can't shoot the virus can you?

It's as close to full scale panic as I have ever seen.

Last edited by irwin
winetarelli posted:

Spent $600 at Costco and $500 Amazon today. Probably another $500+ by the end of the weekend. But... can we talk about this toilet paper thing?  I mean... why?  Why toilet paper. We all need it, but... how much can you actually go through?  This makes no sense. 

Another item disappearing from shelves are condoms. I guess if people think their going to be self-quarantined for a couple weeks..?

I agree that we are in a panic mode.  I keep disbelieving what I am seeing with all the cancellations of events and work activities.  Yes there is a little more risk for older people with underlying conditions, but it is still a flu and the cases are still on the small side. Some precautions are beneficial, but it is like the world is going to shut down for a month.  Let's get a little sanity back.

Yes, I don't get the toilet paper issue, the virus does not cause diarrhea.  

thistlintom posted:

I agree that we are in a panic mode.  I keep disbelieving what I am seeing with all the cancellations of events and work activities.  Yes there is a little more risk for older people with underlying conditions, but it is still a flu and the cases are still on the small side. Some precautions are beneficial, but it is like the world is going to shut down for a month.  Let's get a little sanity back.

Wow, just wow. Is this what they tell you on Fox State News? The flu has vaccines, while not perfect, they can reduce the number of deaths and lessen the severity of the some flues. There is also Tamiflu that can help. Do you understand the difference between .1% and 1%? The moron in chief doesn't. In addition no expert is calling this the "flu" because it's not.

I've asked this on another site with deniers who blame the media and "mass hysteria" to give a number of deaths that would cause them to change their minds. Do you have a number?

Last edited by The Old Man

My older son's college just announced they are shutting down for the rest of the semester and will only do virtual classes.  But now he has to get on a plane to go up there to move his stuff out of campus housing.

Younger son's high school just announced they are shutting down on Monday and going to virtual classes until at least April 6th.

Alterra and Vail Mountain Resorts shut down all ski slopes effective today.  I just had friends here for a long weekend and they just made getting their skiing in.  There must have been a bunch of people who traveled to the ski slopes only to see them shut down.  I would think the risk of transmission is low when skiing.

I also see stores are reducing their hours being open.  You can see why people may think they have to hoard items, worrying about future shut downs.

Yes, hoarders are selfish, but I believe it gives them a sense of control in an otherwise uncontrollable situation.   The march of the virus can't be stopped, but if you can stock up on toilet paper and hand sanitizers, you feel like you are accomplishing something.

I'm not condoning it.  I just understand the why...

Last edited by Rothko

I actually think hoarders are the least of the TP issue.  Do you guys think buying 1 giant package or 2 at Costco is hoarding?  It’s just simple supply and demand.  In normal times, each household replenishes  their TP supply at different days of the month, allowing the store to buy more and restock the shelves.  What happens when ten thousand households in a 5 mile radius decide to replenish their TP at the same time?

irwin posted:

We've been back from our cruise since 3/1. No symptoms.  Don't worry...you can't catch anything from reading this.  Check out information on the 2009 Swine Flu epidemic on your internet. Pretty interesting to see how many people infected, died, etc., the response, how it compares, etc.

 

You realize you have still have it and be infectious without having any symptoms. That's what is crazy about this virus.

mimik posted:
irwin posted:

We've been back from our cruise since 3/1. No symptoms.  Don't worry...you can't catch anything from reading this.  Check out information on the 2009 Swine Flu epidemic on your internet. Pretty interesting to see how many people infected, died, etc., the response, how it compares, etc.

 

You realize you have still have it and be infectious without having any symptoms. That's what is crazy about this virus.

I'm not sure what you can learn from the Swine Flu. Its death rate was .02%. It appears Coronavirus is at least .1% perhaps higher.

Uncommon times for sure.

Personally, I cancelled a Vegas trip for my son's bachelor party. I know you are wondering why I was going but we were going to play Shadow Creek and eat at some high end restaurants before the other young guys were coming out (and I went home). I had my annual DC Legislative conference called, no biggie. The heartbreaking thing is a planned April 25th wedding for my son which will probably have to be moved. Also, a meeting in Switzerland in which I planned to visit Northern Italy is absolutely off even if not cancelled.

I am staying home as much as possible. I can work from home and the only thing I cannot do is meet which is obviously off the table. Currently, my business is like a hurricane or bad weather event, people stocking up from the grocery stores. Guessing a decrease in sales for the coming weeks.

With all of that, I still consider myself very fortunate. As for the naysayers criticizing every move made, no one politician is capable of managing an entire system to deal with this pandemic. History proves this. Designing a large system to distribute and execute is way harder than the average person thinks. Hopefully the lessons learned from this one will make the next one easier. Take care and stay safe.

 

 

scbeerman 

With all of that, I still consider myself very fortunate. As for the naysayers criticizing every move made, no one politician is capable of managing an entire system to deal with this pandemic. History proves this. Designing a large system to distribute and execute is way harder than the average person thinks. Hopefully the lessons learned from this one will make the next one easier. Take care and stay safe.

 

 

I hope you're not making some bizarre attempt at defending the Idiot in Chief by invoking a straw man argument. His thousands of lies in the last 3 years means he has no credibility now. His happy talk for the last month, while not accepting reality, has not been helpful and caused serious delays. His surrounding himself with sycophants and yes-men has also not helped the situation. He is simply reaping what he sowed and deserves all the scorn that gets heaped on him.

"No one could do this perfectly" used as an excuse for disbanding the nation's pandemic team, taking no responsibility, having a grotesquely incompetent testing system, lacking any federal instruction until it was basically too late, pretending it would all go away, repeatedly lying about the accessibility and timelines of tests, vaccines, and the like...

 

Sure, no one could get a 100% or even a 97%.  But that isn't an excuse for an utterly failing grade.

Canceled a ski trip to steamboat. VRBO refused to issue a refund for our condo at the instruction of the seller. Called AMEX and got them to do a charge back. Refund already credited. Never use VRBO. 

 

Gonna be a crappy next 4-8 weeks. Kids at home. Mom and and dads need to work. This is going to be messy. Expecting things everywhere to lockdown like SF just did. 

I try to use this forum as a happy place. It started with learning wine, and you guys taught me a lot, and then writing about my passions of college football and golf. I know that political discourse on forums will not change any opinions so I do not try.

That said, certainly mistakes were made and I am not excusing any elected official. I would make the same comment of the difficulty of establishing and executing a system no matter who is in office. The one thing that any elected official cannot accomplish is to alter human nature, or bluntly, cure stupidity. That is my final take on the matter.

 

scbeerman posted:

That said, certainly mistakes were made and I am not excusing any elected official. I would make the same comment of the difficulty of establishing and executing a system no matter who is in office. The one thing that any elected official cannot accomplish is to alter human nature, or bluntly, cure stupidity. That is my final take on the matter.

 

The one thing a stupid elected official (the nitwit in the WH) cannot accomplish is cure his own stupidity. Think how much time was wasted while he and Fox State News downplayed the seriousness of the virus.

As recently as last night, "The United States will be powerfully supporting those industries, like Airlines and others, that are particularly affected by the Chinese Virus." A soupcon of racism for his ignorant base. It must be killing him not to be able to have any of his (as Bill Maher called it) "Daddy needs some love" rallies.

Last edited by The Old Man

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