irwin posted:

Big story today from the LA Times:

https://www.yahoo.com/news/tru...early-233508840.html

Says that Pres. Trump ended a program that could have helped identify the virus early, etc.  But, it's hard for me to believe that he did this spontaneously or on his own. He's not the kind of guy who looks at the budget himself, line by line, and figures out where to cut.  The questions for me are a) who in the administration at the time recommended to the President that the program be cut and b) who opposed it? Did any Democrats or others in Congress or in the Senate who serve on science and health committees notice and complain?

Trump was elected to "drain the swamp." This is just of another version of Reagan's anti-government stance. From his inaugural address, "Government is not the solution to our problem, government is the problem. Also this infamous line, "The nine most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the Government, and I'm here to help." This attitude has driven the Republican agenda since and the chickens have come home to roost.

Now off course the current president doesn't have the brains to review the budget and make decisions, but besides his agreement with Reagan's philosophy (and the former Republican party's general agenda) he has one more mission: Destroy everything Obama has done. His sycophants and minions know this and everyday do whatever they can to make the Great Leader happy. Such as take the teeth out of the EPA and FDA. 

So I'm not sure what the Democrats could have done and perhaps they didn't really notice this while trying to tamp down the daily horrors that have come out of the WH in the last three and a half years. So it was: science program (science bad) Obama program (Obama bad) a government program that didn't help the 1% (government bad, however not when it serves the rich.)

The chickens have come home to roost indeed.

And now trump has ordered 3M not to ship any masks to Canada. That's the type of protectionism that Canada will not forget. 

robsutherland posted:

And now trump has ordered 3M not to ship any masks to Canada. That's the type of protectionism that Canada will not forget. 

C’mon ... if you can get wines across the border undetected, surely masks will be easier.

irwin posted:

Around 2750 cases in Maryland, with 42 deaths.  So the death rate here is between 1 and 2%.

 

People are only counted as "cases" if they have a positive test.  Currently, most people in the US only get tested if they have symptoms and seek medical attention.  But many/most infected people have no symptoms or only mild symptoms, and do not get tested.  Thus, the true mortality rate is estimated to be well below 1% for all COVID-19 infections.

While the mortality rate may be less than 1% if you count all tested and non-tested individuals, the number to die may will also be much higher.

How so?  A death must have a positive test to count as a COVID-19 death.  Almost everyone with COVID-19-like illness (including everyone with influenza and viral pneumonia) who dies in the US, will get a COVID-19 test.  The only way a COVID-19 death will not be counted as such, is if the test is repeatedly false negative.

I am confident of one thing:  I will not run out of wine during this ordeal, unless my off-site storage locker is deemed non-essential and shuts down. 

What I was trying to imply is that there are people who have the virus but don’t show symptoms.  Meanwhile they pass it on to more people who pass it to more people.  Eventually the infected show symptoms and some die.  While the percentages may intimately be less than 1% after the finally tally is made, the actual number who die will be large.  This excludes the collateral damage to the healthcare system, human psyche (e.g., reluctance to get in a plane, cruise ship, etc.), and other areas.

Last edited by doubled

The current best estimate, from a Lancet study published Monday attempting to count for unreported cases, is at .66%. Or six times higher than the flu.

.66% sounds like pretty good odds, until you take that as a percentage of the US population (330,000,000) and that leaves you with 2.1 million dead Americans.  That assumes, of course, that we are all going to get it before a vaccine comes out in 18 months.  The current "stay at home" orders are designed to reduce the number of people infected right now, but who knows how many resurgences we will see over the next year and a half.

 

javachip posted:

How so?  A death must have a positive test to count as a COVID-19 death.  Almost everyone with COVID-19-like illness (including everyone with influenza and viral pneumonia) who dies in the US, will get a COVID-19 test.  The only way a COVID-19 death will not be counted as such, is if the test is repeatedly false negative.

I am confident of one thing:  I will not run out of wine during this ordeal, unless my off-site storage locker is deemed non-essential and shuts down. 

Are you not supposed to stay home?  So should locker folks.  I'll pick up for you

I'm afraid I just had this awful thought that people over 60 are going to need to stay separated for at least a year. Possibly longer.

Firstly I apologize if somebody’s Already posted this newsflash from London.

Citizens Have been advised to use public transport rather than their own vehicles, Apparently they have car owner virus.

 

The funny thing is that there are many other diseases that are more serious and from which many more people die, but they are silent about them. Of course, I'm not saying that the crown is not dangerous, but I think they started talking about it more than about other problems and someone is making money on it.

There are 46,116 confirmed cases in the US already and 806 cases here in Texas, I really hope it doesn't get any worse than this. Now we are stuck home for I don't know when will it end.

mneeley490 posted:
winedrmike posted:

Now that I'm recovering from the virus my senses are off.  Opened a bottle of 2013 Sullivan Cabernet and 2016 Stags Leap petite Syrah, and I could not smell either one. Taste buds are also off as well.  Hopefully this is only short term.  Damn Virus! 

I heard on the evening news that the loss of smell and taste were previously unreported symptoms of the virus. They said that both do eventually come back. 

Thise sounds like a time to drink your Bret monsters!

Weird that posts made back in March by some forumites who registered then are just now showing up in this thread.........

Went for daily run today- instead of running to the beach like usual as I was running a little late and with Easter thought it might be more crowded than usual - decided to run in the other direction to the Harbor and then Duval Street (our downtown - ha ha) - in a span of 10 blocks from a distance I saw 4 people that I know - no stopping or talking - just hellos from a distance - but was nice to see people I know in person

ProSys posted:

Weird that posts made back in March by some forumites who registered then are just now showing up in this thread.........

Posts by new members go into quarantine, as do posts by certain longtime members who have a history of inflammatory posts, until they can be reviewed by WS. Or something like that. 

I've never seen so many people biking, walking or running around here.  At first I thought that that meant that more people were getting outside and getting fit, but I don't think so.  I guess that with gyms, beaches and parks closed, the same amount of people are exercising, just on the roads.

Rothko posted:

I've never seen so many people biking, walking or running around here.  At first I thought that that meant that more people were getting outside and getting fit, but I don't think so.  I guess that with gyms, beaches and parks closed, the same amount of people are exercising, just on the roads.

I for one am running because I can't play tennis (and need to make up for the extra carb-eating and drinking)

Rothko posted:

I've never seen so many people biking, walking or running around here.  At first I thought that that meant that more people were getting outside and getting fit, but I don't think so.  I guess that with gyms, beaches and parks closed, the same amount of people are exercising, just on the roads.

I think you are right generally.  We can't go to the gym, so days we don't play golf we are taking a walk.  There may be some people that are walking that normally don't do so just to get out of the house.

Ray, the amount of people I see out walking/jogging/riding in my neighborhood has at least tripled. I walk/run my dog for about an hour every night and I've met a ton of new people. From afar of course.

I had lost about 30 lbs on a low carb diet. Oh man have things changed. My drinking has at least doubled and I eat pizza no less than twice a week. At least I have kept up the exercise portion of my program.

I am walking at least 1.5 miles per day and today made it up to 2 miles. I will now walk much more when playing golf excepting the really hot months. My walk around my home course is 7 miles due to distance between holes. Have to do something.

ampuis posted:

Firstly I apologize if somebody’s Already posted this newsflash from London.

Citizens Have been advised to use public transport rather than their own vehicles, Apparently they have car owner virus.

 

Thought that was only in Seattle, Ampuis.  

Signed up for an antibody serum test which I'll get on Friday.  Hoping to see that I've already been exposed, but not holding my breath.  At least I'll know.

wineismylife posted:

How/where Rothko?  I need one.  I've pretty sure my wife and I had it.

Arc Point Labs.  They have locations around the country, I believe.

One positive out of this whole thing, it's sure a lot easier to get my kids to eat veggies (we are encouraging [read: enforcing] better nutrition).  They always ate fruit, sure, but just recently, my daughter actually requested broccoli for dinner.  That is a serious win right there.  

jabe11 posted:

One positive out of this whole thing, it's sure a lot easier to get my kids to eat veggies (we are encouraging [read: enforcing] better nutrition).  They always ate fruit, sure, but just recently, my daughter actually requested broccoli for dinner.  That is a serious win right there.  

The Coronavirus pandemic has made it easier for you to get your children to eat vegetables? 

The Old Man posted:
jabe11 posted:

One positive out of this whole thing, it's sure a lot easier to get my kids to eat veggies (we are encouraging [read: enforcing] better nutrition).  They always ate fruit, sure, but just recently, my daughter actually requested broccoli for dinner.  That is a serious win right there.  

The Coronavirus pandemic has made it easier for you to get your children to eat vegetables? 

Yes...they are receptive to eating healthier, which for us means greens, fresh fruit, smoothies, etc.  In the past, they weren't as receptive, but the have an understanding of the health risks of the virus. 

sd-wineaux posted:

Irwin, if you're positing the Jabe11's children are smarter than the President, that is faint praise indeed!

I could come up with a long list of my children’s attributes that are superior to the president’s, but it would take me too long to type.

The other day in his press conference, the President said, "The President has the authority to do what the President has the authority to do." 

A nugget of wisdom indeed, reflecting the thoughtful analysis of which our President is capable.

Last edited by irwin

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