Coronavirus 2019

I just read this thread in one shot from beginning till now.  Sobering to see the progression of the pandemic, as well as the usual knuckleheads parroting the party line until reality finally, finally, finally became too much to ignore/poo poo.

For those who haven’t seen this, it’s from the Financial Times (definitely NOT a left-leaning outfit).  The graphs of how things have progressed in the US compared to other countries are extremely eye-opening.  

https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest

Be safe, everyone!

If you're feeling trapped at home, here's a fun list of ways to live your best (quarantined) life, courtesy of the folks at Morning Brew:

https://www.morningbrew.com/da..._source=morning_brew

I'm watching the sea otter cam as I type this.  

vint posted:

If you're feeling trapped at home, here's a fun list of ways to live your best (quarantined) life, courtesy of the folks at Morning Brew:

https://www.morningbrew.com/da..._source=morning_brew

I'm watching the sea otter cam as I type this.  

The video call advice is good. I had one the other day with there members of my team and fI’ve people from the client team. The four female members of the client team carefully positioned their laptops to give a limited and non-distracting view of their home. The lone male on their team did the call from his bedroom office with his unmade bed in the background. TMI, dude.

Now know 2 people who have it.  

Texted with a friend who is an ER doctor in DC (his wife is a pediatric ER doctor) - their worlds are obviously in flux - doing their best to stay positive

You might know four.  PURPLE and I have several of the symptoms.  We've been in self quarantine working from home and haven't bothered to get tested as the symptoms have been light so far and we haven't experienced difficulty breathing which is the final get the hell to the hospital now symptom.

wineismylife posted:

You might know four.  PURPLE and I have several of the symptoms.  We've been in self quarantine working from home and haven't bothered to get tested as the symptoms have been light so far and we haven't experienced difficulty breathing which is the final get the hell to the hospital now symptom.

Oh no - hopefully they stay light - hoping for the best for you guys

Thanks.  We very well may not have it.  It almost feels like Spring allergies or a cold or mild flu or such.  Barely notable so far.  It's just the number of symptoms match up so well and timing is about perfect as well it makes me suspicious.  We may never know either.  Whatever this is it seems to be nearing it's end at least for us.

I am a licensed physician and I have been suffering from coronavirus symptoms for the past 9 days.  Only today do I feel like I've  turned the corner and starting to recover.  I likely caught it from my daughter whose symptoms preceded mine by 4 days.

I have not been tested for the virus because My hospital is only testing inpatients at this point.  I did not have a high fever and therefore, did not meet CDC criteria for testing by the dept of health, and I refuse to wait on hours long lines at drive through testing centers.  Ironically, I contacted the state dept. of health asking about priority testing for healthcare workers and was told there is no such testing in place.  Regardless, there is no question that I have the virus based on my years of medical training and experience. I get an annual flu vaccine and this was unlike any flu I've ever had.

A few points to be made. The virus is far more prevalent than is being reported.  Maybe it hasn't hit your neck of the woods but it spread like wildfire in mine- the NY metro area.  When all is said and done, a significant percentage of the population will have been exposed to this virus but won't be counted in the statistics.  Many people like myself and and my daughter will have had it and not been tested. 2 of the 11 doctors in my practice currently have the virus. 

The response to the virus is not overblown.   This virus is extremely contagious and far deadlier than influenza. Shutdowns and quarantines are absolutely necessary or the the healthcare system will crumble.  There simply won't be enough resources to handle the volume, even if none of the healthcare workers were infected.  The morons who refuse to socially isolate themselves ( like the spring breakers), may not kill themselves, but they may be killing their parents or grandparents.

I empirically took the hydroxychloroquine/azithromycin "cocktail" out of fear of ending up on a ventilator.  As I'm typing this, my wife just informed me that her friend's 56 year old husband was just intubated in the ICU.  The cocktail is not a miracle drug, and did not stop the progression of my symptoms, but at least  now I'm confident that I won't need to be hospitalized.  The drug combo is not for everyone.  Those with a certain cardiac arrhythmia ( prolonged QT interval) are at risk for sudden death from the "cocktail".  Hydrochloroquine is on backorder at my local Walgreens and won't be back in stock,until the end of April.

Lastly, those of you making this a political issue nauseate me. This is not about politics and you can't blame Trump for the lack of testing capabilities.  This has everything to do with government beaurocracy and red tape, and that the government simply isn't capable,of doing anything quickly.   I don't agree with a lot of the things coming out of Trump's mouth or the way he says it,  but I do believe the intent is there to help the American people.  When I perform a procedure on someone, I don't ask if the are democrat or republican, whether they are in this country legally or whether they have insurance.  I treat everyone the same.  Rather than pointing fingers of blame or criticism, how about thinking of ways you can help us healthcare workers fight this disease.

Sobering words, Mike.  Very glad to hear you're improving (along with WIML and PURPLE)!

winedrmike posted:

 

Lastly, those of you making this a political issue nauseate me. This is not about politics and you can't blame Trump for the lack of testing capabilities.  This has everything to do with government beaurocracy and red tape, and that the government simply isn't capable,of doing anything quickly.   I don't agree with a lot of the things coming out of Trump's mouth or the way he says it,  but I do believe the intent is there to help the American people.  When I perform a procedure on someone, I don't ask if the are democrat or republican, whether they are in this country legally or whether they have insurance.  I treat everyone the same.  Rather than pointing fingers of blame or criticism, how about thinking of ways you can help us healthcare workers fight this disease.

For weeks the president downplayed the seriousness of this. "We have 15 cases that will soon be be close to zero." This is one of at least two dozen lies, untruths and just stupid things that have come out of the president's mouths since this began. Yes, you can say he's not to blame for the delays and shortages that the US is experiencing , but he, and Fox State News, sure didn't help. This is not "making this a political issue", it's a statement of facts.

"This has everything to do with government beaurocracy and red tape, and that the government simply isn't capable,of doing anything quickly."

Worn out Republican canard that's been worn out for decades. Is only the federal government that can mass great resources during this time of need. If not to help unsure the safety of its citizens during a natural disaster then what?

Get totally well soon, Mike.  I am sure that there are tons of people who have the virus and don't know because they are asymptomatic, and others whose symptoms are quite mild. 

You are certainly correct that it isn't a Democratic or Republican issue. It is a health issue. It is a listen to the experts issue.  Our Republican Governor, Larry Hogan, here in Maryland is on top of this and working hard with the experts from Johns Hopkins, the Univ. of MD, and NIH, three highly competent health institutions in our state.  The Governor, who has survived lymphoma which he got early in his first term, is a terrific leader. 

The Old Man posted:

winedrmike posted:

 

Lastly, those of you making this a political issue nauseate me. This is not about politics and you can't blame Trump for the lack of testing capabilities.  This has everything to do with government beaurocracy and red tape, and that the government simply isn't capable,of doing anything quickly.   I don't agree with a lot of the things coming out of Trump's mouth or the way he says it,  but I do believe the intent is there to help the American people.  When I perform a procedure on someone, I don't ask if the are democrat or republican, whether they are in this country legally or whether they have insurance.  I treat everyone the same.  Rather than pointing fingers of blame or criticism, how about thinking of ways you can help us healthcare workers fight this disease.

For weeks the president downplayed the seriousness of this. "We have 15 cases that will soon be be close to zero." This is one of at least two dozen lies, untruths and just stupid things that have come out of the president's mouths since this began. Yes, you can say he's not to blame for the delays and shortages that the US is experiencing , but he, and Fox State News, sure didn't help. This is not "making this a political issue", it's a statement of facts.

"This has everything to do with government beaurocracy and red tape, and that the government simply isn't capable,of doing anything quickly."

Worn out Republican talking point that has no place during this time when our government needs to do its job and help its citizens.

Geez man.  We get it.  It's all because of Trump, the Republicans, and Fox News.  We heard you the first million times.  It's like Festivus every day with you and your airing of grievances. Maybe you can just reply with "ibid" and we can go on with our day.  

Anyway, thanks Mike and WIML for sharing your first hand experiences.  Definitely a scary situation and wishing you both speedy recoveries. 

The Old Man posted:

winedrmike posted:

 

Lastly, those of you making this a political issue nauseate me. This is not about politics and you can't blame Trump for the lack of testing capabilities.  This has everything to do with government beaurocracy and red tape, and that the government simply isn't capable,of doing anything quickly.   I don't agree with a lot of the things coming out of Trump's mouth or the way he says it,  but I do believe the intent is there to help the American people.  When I perform a procedure on someone, I don't ask if the are democrat or republican, whether they are in this country legally or whether they have insurance.  I treat everyone the same.  Rather than pointing fingers of blame or criticism, how about thinking of ways you can help us healthcare workers fight this disease.

For weeks the president downplayed the seriousness of this. "We have 15 cases that will soon be be close to zero." This is one of at least two dozen lies, untruths and just stupid things that have come out of the president's mouths since this began. Yes, you can say he's not to blame for the delays and shortages that the US is experiencing , but he, and Fox State News, sure didn't help. This is not "making this a political issue", it's a statement of facts.

"This has everything to do with government beaurocracy and red tape, and that the government simply isn't capable,of doing anything quickly."

Worn out Republican canard that's been worn out for decades. Is only the federal government that can mass great resources during this time of need. If not to help unsure the safety of its citizens during a natural disaster then what?

The Old Man,

You just had a doctor plead and tell you this is not a political issue and you turn around and immediately make it one.  You are tiring and trying at the same time.  Go do something else rather than posting  negative comments incessantly.  

And by the way...Trump is tight to want to get the country moving again.

Best of luck winedrmike.  

napacat posted:

The Old Man,

You just had a doctor plead and tell you this is not a political issue and you turn around and immediately make it one.

Except the good doctor was perhaps a little disingenuous in his plea:

"This is not about politics and you can't blame Trump for the lack of testing capabilities." -- Well yeah, you kind of can. He is making it political by defending your favorite cult leader (and I'm guessing his too.)

"This has everything to do with government beaurocracy and red tape, and that the government simply isn't capable,of doing anything quickly." -- This is obviously a political statement with a clearly T/Republican view.

"I don't agree with a lot of the things coming out of Trump's mouth or the way he says it, but I  believe the intent is there to help the American people." -- Political statement

"And by the way...Trump is tight (sic) to want to get the country moving again."

Yes, please all gentiles fill the pews on Easter as the stable genius has ordained. Don't follow the scientists but heed the words of the self-proclaimed "chosen" one. What harm can there be? His mighty staff will protect you from pestilence and disease. Passover's a few days before Easter and you can bet we won't be having a live family seder.

I found my account!

As someone living in what can be called the Epicenter of the CV19 outbreak in the US.  Nothing that trump says has been helping any of my neighbors, and certainly not me cope with this situation.

I've been following this since the end of Dec. Asia is the market I've been researching since that time, 

It's not politics.  It's about proper leadership.  There are many countries that have already shown what is required at the Federal level, and not individual states.  Why else would I be paying federal taxes?  I don't care about the federal govt giving me guidance.  I need the federal government to procure necessary medical supplies and properly distribute need amongst the various states.  

Very simply, it's the United States of America.  It's not 48 states with 2 stragglers that happen to be in America.  The fact that Trump thinks each individual state should figure out how to individually secure needed medical supplies is just asinine.   I can say though, if any state descends into the situation that us in NY have, where you worry about what's getting stocked on the shelves,  you worry about one of your friends having an ambulance in front of their house being sent to one of the many overcrowded NY hospitals, seeing refrigerated body trucks lined right outside in empty parking lots, I assure you politics is one of the very last things on many other NYers minds.

I will half jokingly say that the rest of you poorer states can only wish you had as much money as California/NY/Texas, good luck bidding on these necessary medical supplies against NY, CA, Texas.

Old Man- I read through this thread and noticed that more of the posts were politically motivated rather than addressing the reality of the pandemic, and it disturbed me.  You see, 3 days ago, when I febrile, coughing, congested, nauseous, fatigued and lethargic, I could not have have given a rats ass about Trumps lies. I instead put a mask on my wife and showed her how to pay monthly bills online and where I kept the life insurance paperwork.  Fortunately, I'm feeling better,  but the ICU in my hospital looks like a war zone filled with guys my age, WITH LITTLE OR NO PREEXISTING MEDICAL CONDITIONS. 

My political leanings aren't important. My intention was to bring this discussion back to the center with sobering reality, and not make it all about politics. We get it, you hate the commander in chief.  He's not my first choice either, but he's what we've got right now. Fear not, if you were to present to my hospital's ER, and I needed to provide service to you, you would get the same top quality service as the Republicans, if not better.

Unfortunately - there are political elements to this crisis.  I don't think criticizing leaders for making false statements and encouraging behavior which endangers lives is politicizing anything.

Can we criticize the LT. Governor of Texas for suggesting that older folks should happily put themselves at risk of dying to bolster the economy?  The statement was morally reprehensible and calling it so is not a political issue but a moral one.  Has nothing to do that I likely disagree with the guy on every single political issue

jcocktosten posted:

Unfortunately - there are political elements to this crisis.  I don't think criticizing leaders for making false statements and encouraging behavior which endangers lives is politicizing anything.

Can we criticize the LT. Governor of Texas for suggesting that older folks should happily put themselves at risk of dying to bolster the economy?  The statement was morally reprehensible and calling it so is not a political issue but a moral one.  Has nothing to do that I likely disagree with the guy on every single political issue

I don't disagree. I constantly wish that Trump would shut his mouth and turn off his twitter. I was squirming on my sofa just like Dr Fauci when I heard Trump talk about hydroxychloroquine being the miracle drug- based on a single small non randomized trial from France. As expected, it caused an immediate run on the pharmacies.  

Right now, my focus is focus is my health and the health of my family.  As it stands, I won't be able to go back to the hospital for another 2 weeks to ensure that i am not still contagious,  but I can work by telemedicine. Let's post some good news stories of people recovering from the virus.

For some people everything revolves around politics.

I hope you continue to recover quickly Mike.

Even though the drug package didn't seem effective for you, I hope it is effective overall in the treatment for others.  Hopefully we will have better knowledge about this and other issues regarding the virus in the next week.  I believe we have performed about 400,000 tests, that should help provide more information.

Great post Dr. Mike and I hope that you and your family get well soon.

Dr Mike, Purple, WIML, wishing you all a full and rapid recovery. 

I think we all have a pretty good grasp of how and where this virus has spread. Was the current situation in the USA avoidable? If so, how? If not, why not? 

These questions are going to be debated for years, probably without any definitive resolution. Politics will have to be part of the debate. 

"I read through this thread and noticed that more of the posts were politically motivated rather than addressing the reality of the pandemic, and it disturbed me."

I have read no posts that are politically motivated. Most of them did point out how delay, caused by the president's refusal to accepted the facts made the situation worse. That called reality.

"We get it, you hate the commander in chief."

You don't know me; I don't hate anyone. I do hate almost everything he's done as president and continues to do to our country. 

"Fear not, if you were to present to my hospital's ER, and I needed to provide service to you, you would get the same top quality service as the Republicans, if not better."

What a guy.

seaquam posted:

I think we all have a pretty good grasp of how and where this virus has spread. Was the current situation in the USA avoidable? If so, how? If not, why not? 

Was it totally avoidable? No. Would it have made a difference if the most powerful man in the world didn't just kind of wish away it for weeks? "Like a miracle it will be gone." I say yes.

azwiese posted:

"Geez man.  We get it.  It's ALL BECAUSE [emphasis mine] of Trump, the Republicans, and Fox News."

Never said anything like this. I did say they made it worse by downplaying it for weeks.

"We heard you the first million times.  It's like Festivus every day with you and your airing of grievances. Maybe you can just reply with "ibid" and we can go on with our day."

I'm guessing mike didn't. I also can't top the president when it comes to his almost daily airing of grievances while addressing a crisis. I guess the real question is, why do you go on and keep reading my posts if they bother you so much? As I've pointed out before, my avatar is quite easy to spot. it's even a black and white photo that stands out even more. It's like those that complain about something on television who apparently forget they have a remote control.

SMH

thistlintom posted:

I believe we have performed about 400,000 tests, that should help provide more information.

I hope Fox News told you that this is about the same number that South Korea has performed in a country of 50 million compared to 327 million in the US. They, and many other countries, were lucky to have leaders who took this seriously right from the start.

Well, we are now the #1 country in the world with coronavirus.

I hate being right...

Be Best!

Rothko posted:

Well, we are now the #1 country in the world with coronavirus.

I hate being right...

Amazing that NY is half the cases.  I think part of the reason we are number one is that we have the most tests and that you can't trust China comments for anything.  It appears that the forecasts of cases and deaths by models are overestimated from comments by the experts, but we shall see.

Apparently US thinking about posting troops along the border with Canada. Awesome idea, especially if their task is to catch Americans attempting to escape. 😛

vint posted:

Apparently US thinking about posting troops along the border with Canada. Awesome idea, especially if their task is to catch Americans attempting to escape. 😛

I’m coming for your cellars. 

thistlintom posted:

Amazing that NY is half the cases.  I think part of the reason we are number one is that we have the most tests...

Except we don't. As I already pointed out for example South Korea has enough tests for around 8% of the population. In the US it's closer to 1.2%. The number is not relevant, the percentage of the population is the key.

It's better to look at this from %

Wuhan has a population of 11 million, with as reported by china, 68k cases or an infection population % of .006%

NYC and surrounding areas like Nassau County, Westchester has a population of roughly 11 million also.

so assuming china's numbers are accurate, we would expect the NY metro region to show 68,000 cases, ~ 1000 deaths (this is out of my ass because i'm assuming the NY healthcare system is much better than the Wuhan emergency hospital put up in 2  weeks kind of care)

As with testing, NY's government has been stating they're running 7000 tests a day but they're running out of the reagent to continue to test at that pace, so alot of folks are still not being tested unless they get to the hospital with symptoms.

but assuming China is lying about infected, but telling the truth on the deaths,

There might be potentially 320,000 infected individuals in NY now.

If China's lying about both, I'm not a religious man, but god help us.

winedrmike posted:

... I was squirming on my sofa just like Dr Fauci when I heard Trump talk about hydroxychloroquine being the miracle drug- based on a single small non randomized trial from France. As expected, it caused an immediate run on the pharmacies.

It also caused you, a physician, to take the drug yourself, in the absence of a positive test.  I'm not saying I wouldn't do the same thing myself.  Wishing you and everyone a full recovery.

The President has proposed a county by county analysis of the incidence of the virus, so that some counties can have more restrictive rules as to "social distancing" and so forth, while other counties can have less harsh restrictions. 

This is a great idea.  I think all we need to do to make it work is to have walls erected around all of the counties in the country.  Don't worry about the cost. Mexico will pay for the walls.

our county have many cases, county to north west has none.  So do we place "customs & Border Security" in Indian town?

javachip posted:

winedrmike posted:

... I was squirming on my sofa just like Dr Fauci when I heard Trump talk about hydroxychloroquine being the miracle drug- based on a single small non randomized trial from France. As expected, it caused an immediate run on the pharmacies.

It also caused you, a physician, to take the drug yourself, in the absence of a positive test.  I'm not saying I wouldn't do the same thing myself.  Wishing you and everyone a full recovery.

That is correct.  It was a conflict between my anxiety over becoming critically ill versus my scientific rational side.  Anxiety won.

Update- Finally got tested, but the result is almost moot at this point.  Up to 5 days to get results.  Thank you all for the well wishes.  

As of today, 25% of the patients in my primary hospital are COVID or suspected COVID.

Mike - hope you recover quickly.

Both the mayor AND police chief in my city have tested positive.

thistlintom posted:

Coachella has been postponed.

In regards to the mortality rate, we don't have great information yet.  The best right now is probably from South Korea which has decent medical care and has significant testing.  The mortality rate (deaths compared to diagnosed cases ) is 0.6%.  My guess is the % compared to contracted cases is significantly lower and closer to the regular flu, as many people may have contracted the virus and not reported it or had it diagnosed.

Also of note, the average age of people dying in the US from the virus is 80 years old.

I understand being cautious, but I do think that there has been a big overreaction to the situation.

Curious - do you think it’s serious yet?

I'm on another forum where a person wrote three weeks ago, "When thousands of healthy young people are dying in every state then called a pandemic." This was about the time WHO declared it a pandemic. He's been asked about it but always dodges and weaves. It is very rare for people on the internet to admit they're wrong and of course he won't.