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@haggis posted:

I don't know where you get those low positive results from FL.  As the Johns Hopkins  data show, the positive results in FL were 14.3% on Oct. 22, 8.4% on Oct. 23, and 6.2% on Oct. 24.  So, these are huge numbers.  They are going down, at least for now, but the testing rates are increasing (1.2%, 1.3% and 1.6% over those same three days)!  So, that goes completely against your argument.

I certainly don't speak for napacat (Lord forbid!), but Florida's Covid Dashboard has been putting out much lower positivity rates for the month of October than the John Hopkins numbers.   So I suspect that is where he is getting his figures from; although even the Dashboard's numbers aren't quite as low as he listed.

Of course, the accuracy of the rates on the Florida Dashboard are somewhat suspect.  I know people here who are taking those numbers with very large grains of salt:  our Governor fired the woman who set up the Dashboard, and the Governor has put on a "happy face" about this pandemic much like our President.

So, I think I would go off the John Hopkins data.

https://www.usa-vision.com/hos...ts-surges-across-us/

"There were 41,776 Covid-19 patients in the hospital, according to the Covid Tracking Project, the highest since summer surges in solar belt states. According to data from the Federal Department of Health and Human Services, intensive care beds accounted for more than 70% of capacity in 19 states."

https://kfor.com/border-report...e-to-covid-19-surge/

The order comes as hospital and intensive care unit beds reached 100% capacity on Sunday and 1,443 new COVID-19 infections were reported on Monday morning.

@g-man posted:

He's trying to argue that cv19 isn't exponential growth. when the covid-19 first hit the states the R0 was north of 2.6 using average estimates across various scientists, which is indeed exponential growth.  The current estimate for R0 where folks are hunkering down, wearing masks shows an consensus R0 of roughly 1 to 1.6.

So definitely better, but there is still at large % of the US population that can still catch the disease, contrary to what white house officials are talking about with their "herd immunity" If you gave up masks and social distancing, it's pretty obv the R0 of this disease is going back to exponential growth.

Also folks talking about the death rate, do the incorrect assumption that you calculate the death rate amongst the entire population, where as it should be calculated against those who have actually caught it and ended up going to the hospital.

https://nyulangone.org/news/st...death-rates-covid-19

ie don't catch it, and if you do and you gotta goto the hospital, you're kind of already fucked, unless you happen to be able to afford some great who

who calculates the death rate based on the entire population?  It should only be used against people who have contracted it.

@Rothko posted:

I certainly don't speak for napacat (Lord forbid!), but Florida's Covid Dashboard has been putting out much lower positivity rates for the month of October than the John Hopkins numbers.   So I suspect that is where he is getting his figures from; although even the Dashboard's numbers aren't quite as low as he listed.

Of course, the accuracy of the rates on the Florida Dashboard are somewhat suspect.  I know people here who are taking those numbers with very large grains of salt:  our Governor fired the woman who set up the Dashboard, and the Governor has put on a "happy face" about this pandemic much like our President.

So, I think I would go off the John Hopkins data.

You’re right...I do consult the FL covid website...and my figures are an accurate representation of what they listed.  Right...let’s distrust it.  Do you all sit in your homes with masks on afraid of everything?    Most of our media has praised Europe and now they are going on lockdowns (which don’t work)...just delay the inevitable.  They now have more deaths than the US.  Guess they got it right.

@napacat posted:

You’re right...I do consult the FL covid website...and my figures are an accurate representation of what they listed.  Right...let’s distrust it.  Do you all sit in your homes with masks on afraid of everything?    Most of our media has praised Europe and now they are going on lockdowns (which don’t work)...just delay the inevitable.  They now have more deaths than the US.  Guess they got it right.

do you sit around fearing that a looter and rioter is going to show up at your doorstop out int he suburbs?  Is Florida now burning down?  Aren't you afraid of antifa shooting you as soon you step out side of your door step?

Your statements are just about as nonsensical as the statement above.

Also europe is comfortable reporting all symptom related deaths as covid to better understand the disease.  The US, some states, still not so much.  If they were able to handle the volume of dead in the US to properly do the testing, they would find more people died of covid than being reported.  It's pretty obvious if they were to do more testing on the dead bodies, the # of covid deaths would easily go up.

If they want to follow a government that actually is making a different look to Japan, South Korea, Taiwan.   guess what, a place when most folks wear masks and socially distance, life is back to normal.  Japan is even paying folks 200$ a person to go out travel and eat.  Heck, Japan is opening up cruise ships for domestic travel.

FL is shading the death court for sure.  They only list RESIDENTS.  If a snowbird dies in FL, they don't list it.  I wonder if this death is listed in NYS for example.

There is a move here now to not list cases daily, but weekly, and not to maintain a historical record on the dashboard.  Johns Hopkins data is trustworthy, not DeSantis

@napacat posted:

I never said not to test.  Test as much as you like / can.    Seriously, please explain why you would calculate the death rate of a disease against an entire population and not only against those who have contracted it.

Because there is no way to know how many have contracted it given that many probably have it or had it and showed no symptoms or were never tested, so that stat is meaningless. 

@napacat posted:

Given that then....if you base the total number of deaths on the entire population, the mortality rate is even far lower than currently reported.

How so?

The US has the 9th highest mortality rate in the world per population as measured by pretty much every internationally recognized non-partisan news source.   For example:

https://www.statista.com/stati...million-inhabitants/

Of 10th if you count San Marino and Andorra:

https://www.worldometers.info/...0%5Cl%20%22countries

Also, the excess death rate in the US is nearly 300,000 so no doubt the number of Covid deaths are way beyond the official count of 225,000 or so.

@Rothko posted:

Any bets on whether Dr. Fauci will get fired after the election?

I imagine he could become a medical correspondent for one of the networks and make a fortune.

I would say it's a virtual certainty.  Only chance he sticks around I think is if Biden wins and Biden wants him to stay on.  I don't think one says no to the President often, if ever. 

@g-man posted:

well that reads like he kinda can and that fauci has to proactively try and get his job back.

amazing the lengths someone will go through to literally destroy any semblance of government by the people for the people

He kinda can't.  The action would have to be initiated by either the Director of the NIH (an Obama appointee) or the Secretary of HHS, which ain't going to happen regardless of who wins the election.  Azar is a POS, but isn't likely to tie his future to an attempt to remove a beloved health care expert in the middle of a pandemic.

PH

Apparently the Trump "victory" party is in line to be the next super-spreader event. From the LA Times: "The White House has repeatedly refused to say who else [besides Mark Meadows] has tested positive, even as the virus continues to spread. The latest White House cluster, coming just a month after Trump’s own diagnosis and hospitalization, includes a top Trump campaign official as well as a handful of undisclosed White House staff, officials said."

@The Old Man posted:

Apparently the Trump "victory" party is in line to be the next super-spreader event. From the LA Times: "The White House has repeatedly refused to say who else [besides Mark Meadows] has tested positive, even as the virus continues to spread. The latest White House cluster, coming just a month after Trump’s own diagnosis and hospitalization, includes a top Trump campaign official as well as a handful of undisclosed White House staff, officials said."

Perhaps that is why no one has seen or heard from Pencey

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