My pick: Taiba. Not the early favorite. Lightly raced, well rested, and a superior horse with 2 wins to date. Mike Smith, the jockey, has 2 Kentucky Derby wins under his belt and knows how to run the race. Excellent lineage.
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Had dinner last night with a couple of friends who are consummate gamblers, Irwin, and they also like this horse for the KD.
Their interest is based mostly on the fact that this horse sold for $140K as a yearling, and a year later, without having raced at all, sold for $1.7M. They think somebody knows something (it certainly isn’t me). Plus they like the jockey a lot, as do you.
After listening to their enthusiastic discussion, and reading your analysis, I think I might make a $2 bet on this horse. I’ll just have to divert some of the funds I usually reserve for wagering on that purest of all sports, professional wrestling.
Just to keep this wine related..............
Might have to call you "2 Buck Sequam" from now on.
Holy cow. I sure didn’t see that coming. Of course, no one else did either.
80-1!! Remarkable.
Still, an entertaining and exciting — though not profitable— couple of minutes. Thanks for getting me interested, Irwin.
Seaquam: It’s the story of my life… fast women and slow horses.
On a positive note: it’s a story you’ll never tire of telling, Irwin. 😁
the superfecta woulda paid something like 300k on a dollar bet.
ha!
I'm still recovering from the shock. OK, I don't typically pick the winner. I can live with that. As my wife says, I have the Midas touch. Everything I touch turns into a muffler. But, 80-1? Geez.
The Preakness is this coming Saturday. It will be around 90 degrees here, and maybe a thunderstorm. Anyway, in a small field (9 horses) post position doesn't matter much. Epicenter will be the favorite. He ran well in the Derby going a mile and a quarter. The Preakness is only a mile and 3/16th. He has speed. Epicenter will be tough to beat.
However, the horse in the #1 post, Simplification, is a beautiful animal. The #1 post is usually deadly, but in a small field, again, the post doesn't matter much, and at the rail, a horse has to run a shorter distance. Besides, the #2 horse will not likely be a factor.
So, I'll put a few bucks down on Simplification.
@irwin posted:The Preakness is this coming Saturday. It will be around 90 degrees here, and maybe a thunderstorm. Anyway, in a small field (9 horses) post position doesn't matter much. Epicenter will be the favorite. He ran well in the Derby going a mile and a quarter. The Preakness is only a mile and 3/16th. He has speed. Epicenter will be tough to beat.
However, the horse in the #1 post, Simplification, is a beautiful animal. The #1 post is usually deadly, but in a small field, again, the post doesn't matter much, and at the rail, a horse has to run a shorter distance. Besides, the #2 horse will not likely be a factor.
So, I'll put a few bucks down on Simplification.
will 2 buck seaquam bet?
Another option is Early Voting. Had two firsts and a second before the Derby. You can't count out a Lucas trained horse, and starting from the middle of the gate should be helpful. Tough to handicap this race.
Will be sunny and quite hot. Probably about 90 at post time. Horses will be sweating and so will the 100,000 persons expected to attend. Track will be fast.
If the pace is fast, which it should be, it will be tough on the bigger horses, and I think some horse could come off the pace, hit the rail, and sneak by. It's anyone's race.
Well....sort of. I mean, I originally had Simplification, who didn't fare well. Epicenter had a bad start, which helped the rest of the field.
I wound up not actually betting. So, I didn't lose any money on the race, which is an improvement for me over past years.
There won't be that much interest in the Belmont this year...no triple crown possibility. But, having said that, it should be a decent race.
Rich Strike is rested and, of course, won the Derby. But, that seemed at the time to be sort of a fluke...well, not sort of. I don't see that happening again.
My pick is Mo Donegal. A quality horse, bred for distance, ridden by a top, top jockey. Might wind up as the favorite.
quod erat demonstrandum
Congrats, Irwin. Hope you had some cash on this one.