2009 Bordeaux, start your engines.

Well it should come as no surprise, that the talk is already starting. Comparing the vintage to 1947? Comparing it to 2005 + 1982. Not sure I can deal with another vintage of the decade...

Hey James (Suckling), any thoughts? When do you head over to check out this latest rumor??

Mike
Original Post
Are people rooting for bad vintages?? I hope it is another stellar vintage because the more good wine in the market the better! Obviously the Bordeaux PR machine has to be taken with a heavy grain of salt, but based on weather alone it looks like some good wine “should” be made. Time will tell and pricing is key, but I would love another great vintage to choose from.
I hope so Indy. Hoping that the 07 vintage would be dumped. Not sure what the '06's are doing but they are hardly discounted around here. There is one retailer in NJ that has some decent discounts on 05 and 06.

Time will tell. From what I am reading, the weather is the best indicator for a stellar vintage
quote:
Originally posted by GlennK:
Are people rooting for bad vintages?? I hope it is another stellar vintage because the more good wine in the market the better! Obviously the Bordeaux PR machine has to be taken with a heavy grain of salt, but based on weather alone it looks like some good wine “should” be made. Time will tell and pricing is key, but I would love another great vintage to choose from.


I am not rooting for a bad vintage at all. I don't pay that much attention to Bordeaux anyway. However, I think, at the minimum, they need to get the grapes off the vines before touting this kind of success. Just my opinion.
quote:
Originally posted by GlennK:
Time will tell and pricing is key, but I would love another great vintage to choose from.


G, good point. I would imagine a very good to great 2009 would further depress prices for 2006 and 2008. In addition, there is still some decent quantity of 2004 on shelves which IMHO is a great QPR vintage.
Futures are a scam imho. The only reason to buy them is to assure you get the bottles you want, regardless of price. The only vintage in the past dozen or so in which the wines were later released at higher prices was 2000. Hell, even the 05's were released around here for only a few bucks more than the futures prices, and that was a vintage of the century. 2009 futures??? Pass. I have better ways to spend money.
quote:
Originally posted by steve8:
Futures are a scam imho. The only reason to buy them is to assure you get the bottles you want, regardless of price. The only vintage in the past dozen or so in which the wines were later released at higher prices was 2000. Hell, even the 05's were released around here for only a few bucks more than the futures prices, and that was a vintage of the century. 2009 futures??? Pass. I have better ways to spend money.
Or if you want large format.
quote:
Originally posted by steve8:
Futures are a scam imho. The only reason to buy them is to assure you get the bottles you want, regardless of price. The only vintage in the past dozen or so in which the wines were later released at higher prices was 2000. Hell, even the 05's were released around here for only a few bucks more than the futures prices, and that was a vintage of the century. 2009 futures??? Pass. I have better ways to spend money.


03 Futures paid off too if chosen properly on 1st tranche, and 05s selectively were good deals on 1st tranche. Beyond 1st tranche I agree with you completely since 2000. After buying 6 consecutive futures vintages (2000-2005) I passed completely on 06 & will continue to do so for the forseeable future.
It is too early to tell about 2009. But it's looking good! Some young Merlot vines are already being picked. There should be a lot of action in Pomerol by the end of next week.

Most of the growers I speak with are very excited about the possibilities. But some have also let me know they needed more water as it was a very dry year. Not as hot as 03, but almost as dry. However it's been raining a bit lately, so who knows?

I'm going to be in Bordeaux for the harvest, so it will be fun to chat with growers and wine makers while the grapes are being brought in.

As for prices... Your guess is as good as mine. It depends on the quality and style of wine as well as the financial stability of the world economy when the wines are priced, which is over half a year away. A lot can happen either way in that time. The comment from Garagiste about 09 being more money than 05 seems like it was written by someone with a lot of back stock to sell. I have no idea what they're going to sell for, but in today's economy, I doubt it.

Regarding 08 pricing, the top wines remain well priced and with few exceptions, most are still available for their original offering price. Not much wine was made in 08 so I doubt the top wines will be discounted.

For anyone that does not think buying Futures off, you are either buying the wrong wines, or the wrong vintages, or both. In top years, buying the best wines pays off the vast majority of the time. Even with the financial meltdown, my 05's still show at least a 40% profit and my 2000 futures are up between 60% and 80%.
My '05's are not at 40% but they are higher than what I originally paid for them. I am still a fan of futures on a good to great vintage. I did buy 08 futures mostly for my son for birth year wine. As far as 09 goes, time will tell and the world economy will be the deciding factor!
quote:
Originally posted by Pomerollvr:
For anyone that does not think buying Futures off, you are either buying the wrong wines, or the wrong vintages, or both. In top years, buying the best wines pays off the vast majority of the time. Even with the financial meltdown, my 05's still show at least a 40% profit.


Can you give us some examples of wines you bought in '05 that have maintained 40% profit?
quote:
Originally posted by cb1:
Can you give us some examples of wines you bought in '05 that have maintained 40% profit?
Like most Bordeaux campaigns, any wine with a huge RP score. Off the top of my head, most first growths, LLC, Malescot, Pontet-Canet and La Mission to name a few. Granted you had to get these on the first or maybe second tranche of futures to still see the increases.
quote:
Originally posted by cb1:
quote:
Originally posted by Pomerollvr:
For anyone that does not think buying Futures off, you are either buying the wrong wines, or the wrong vintages, or both. In top years, buying the best wines pays off the vast majority of the time. Even with the financial meltdown, my 05's still show at least a 40% profit.


Can you give us some examples of wines you bought in '05 that have maintained 40% profit?



I'm not really comfortable going into every wine I buy. But I can assure you, and the people who know me will assure you as well, I own the majority of wines cited as examples in this post. There are wines at a myriad of price ranges starting at $15. The majority were under $100.

On the high end, early buyers of Ausone for $850 still see 300% profit. 05 Lafleur was available for $500. That is also up between 100 & 200%. For anyone that knows me, I never once advocated buying the Firsts in 05, other than Haut Brion. There were numerous other deals available. The prices I paid were all from Nationally known retailers. Most prices hung around for a while. A few prices like Haut Brion shot up in a few days. But a lot of good deals were available for quite a while, due to the very high prices being asked in the first place.

Bottom line, if you want the best Bordeaux wines at the lowest possible from hot vintages, step up and buy them quickly. History has shown time and time again that approach pays off.

These are a few examples. There are others, but these are off the top off the top of my head from a quick glance. I'm not up on current market prices. I spent a lot more time watching how much were appreciating than keeping track of prices as they were falling, but these examples give you a decent idea on what took place at the time.

FWIW, I also bought wines that due to the financial crisis are selling for close to what I paid for them as well. There are also numerous wines that are up 10%, 20% and 30% as well as wines that remain up over 100%.



05 Haut Bailly
05 Haut Brion $375
05 La Mission $215
05 Pape Clement $135
05 Malescot St. Exupery $60
05 Rauzan Segla $75
05 Pontet Canet $75
05 Clos L'Eglise $80
05 Croix St. Georges $45
05 L'Eglise Clinet $200
05 L'Evangile $185
05 Hosana $120
05 Chapelle Ausone $120
05 Clos Fourtet $70
05 Clos St. Martin $60
05 La Clotte $35
05 Fleur Cardinale $35
05 La Fleur Morange Mathilde $22
05 Larcis Ducasse $90
05 Monbousquet $45
05 Puygueraud $15
05 Pavie Macquin $80
05 Pierre De Lunne $40
05 Tertre Rotebeouf $155
05 Troplong Mondot $150
05 Branaire Ducru $55
quote:
Originally posted by jburman82:
Let the Asian investors buy them and then have no one to sell them too.


What's the difference between "Asian" investors and "Regular" investors. Can you elaborate? Not sure if you know any of these "Asian" people investors personally..... Why wish them ill will when you say hope that they have no one to sell them to...
quote:
Originally posted by TheEngineer:
quote:
Originally posted by jburman82:
Let the Asian investors buy them and then have no one to sell them too.


What's the difference between "Asian" investors and "Regular" investors. Can you elaborate? Not sure if you know any of these "Asian" people investors personally..... Why wish them ill will when you say hope that they have no one to sell them to...


My point was the Asian markets are the biggest drive behind the high bordeaux prices. No real difference, just more of them with more money backing them up. Hence the astronomical rise in prices over the last few years.

Also, I didnt say I hoped they have no one to sell to. I dont think they will get good resale profits if it is priced like 2005. I think buying ridiculously expensive wine with little to no upside is dumb, unless you want to drink it.
Interesting about the Pavie Macquin. Here is a wine that was offered at around $70 - $80 at first tranche back in 2006. After the Parker score it shot up to an absurd amount , I think it hovered around $250-$350 at one time. A quick wine-searcher search reveals that it now can be obtained for around $120. Amazing!!
quote:
Originally posted by mareff:
Interesting about the Pavie Macquin. Here is a wine that was offered at around $70 - $80 at first tranche back in 2006. After the Parker score it shot up to an absurd amount , I think it hovered around $250-$350 at one time. A quick wine-searcher search reveals that it now can be obtained for around $120. Amazing!!


jburman and I just went in for some '05 Cos for $149.97. The wine had been marked down from $209 at my Costco. I have no idea what pricing was on the 1st tranche, but I would assume it was less. I really felt like I got a First-Growth quality wine for a fraction of the price.
quote:
Originally posted by Keeno:
quote:
Originally posted by mareff:
Interesting about the Pavie Macquin. Here is a wine that was offered at around $70 - $80 at first tranche back in 2006. After the Parker score it shot up to an absurd amount , I think it hovered around $250-$350 at one time. A quick wine-searcher search reveals that it now can be obtained for around $120. Amazing!!


jburman and I just went in for some '05 Cos for $149.97. The wine had been marked down from $209 at my Costco. I have no idea what pricing was on the 1st tranche, but I would assume it was less. I really felt like I got a First-Growth quality wine for a fraction of the price.


First tranche for Cos was around $180, I think I paid $175.00 for it. Thus is you got it for $150.00, I would say that you did alright. If the vintage holds up, over time, it will shoot back up.
quote:
Originally posted by jburman82:
My point was the Asian markets are the biggest drive behind the high bordeaux prices. No real difference, just more of them with more money backing them up. Hence the astronomical rise in prices over the last few years.


Other than Lafite, Asia is not that big a market. Very little wine is sold there compared to America. The largest share of top Bordeaux is still bought by Americans and Europeans, especially when it comes to Futures.
quote:
Originally posted by Pomerollvr:
quote:
Originally posted by jburman82:
My point was the Asian markets are the biggest drive behind the high bordeaux prices. No real difference, just more of them with more money backing them up. Hence the astronomical rise in prices over the last few years.


Other than Lafite, Asia is not that big a market. Very little wine is sold there compared to America. The largest share of top Bordeaux is still bought by Americans and Europeans, especially when it comes to Futures.


Where have read/heard this? It is the exact opposite of everything I have been hearing. I have read/heard the Far East has been driving the auction markets and getting a larger share of futures every year. I'd be interested in reading anything you have on it.
quote:
Originally posted by jburman82:
quote:
Originally posted by Pomerollvr:
quote:
Originally posted by jburman82:
My point was the Asian markets are the biggest drive behind the high bordeaux prices. No real difference, just more of them with more money backing them up. Hence the astronomical rise in prices over the last few years.


Other than Lafite, Asia is not that big a market. Very little wine is sold there compared to America. The largest share of top Bordeaux is still bought by Americans and Europeans, especially when it comes to Futures.


Where have read/heard this? It is the exact opposite of everything I have been hearing. I have read/heard the Far East has been driving the auction markets and getting a larger share of futures every year. I'd be interested in reading anything you have on it.


My information comes first hand, directly from one on one conversations with Chateau Owners and Negociants. A few Chateau have a stronger identity than others in select Asian markets, but for most Chateau, Asia is well below America and Europe.

For Futures, very little wine is sold in Asian markets as Futures is not generally accepted as a business model.

Auctions are hot currently hot in Asia. But when you think about it, compared to how much wine is produced, the volume level is low. However, prices set in Asian markets will move auction markets in similar directions. But keep in mind, prices and demand in the auction market has nothing to do with current pricing or allocations in Bordeaux.
quote:
Originally posted by Berno:
Hopefully the prices stay down.

I was at a Bordeaux seminar downtown last week and they said '09 was looking a lot like 2005.


Interesting, who was giving the seminar? Jancis Robinson's contacts are suggesting the 2009 is more like 2000 than 2005.

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