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46 replies

2007 Bordeaux futures?

K khmark7Member
Only a few 2007 future prices have been released, but the first available in my area is the 2007 Rieussec. $44 for a 375 which was barrel rated 93-96. Seems a bit steep when the 2006 was $28 and barrel reviewed at 92-94. I know that the 2007 Sauternes vintage was good, but still. If the vintage on the whole goes up in price I can't see many people buying.

Myself, I was hoping to pick up just a few, maybe a mixed case or two like 2006. Anyone else??
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M moselleluxemburgMember
Recently, every good vintage (2000, 2005) and an off-vintage like 2003 has been declared 'vintage of the century' or the 'best vintage ever'.
2007 has not been declared 'the best vintage ever', so it must be very bad.

Read a recent article in a French wine magazine, there might be some hidden gems in 2007. Pricing will be crucial. IF the prices were considerably lower than 2005/2006, ok, but frankly i lost every bit of faith in reasonable Bordeaux pricing.
M machineMember
I have seen a few sets of tasting notes for 2007's. Sounds like great year for whites and sauternes, but reds are pretty much a complete bust (and I assume that the chateau that did put together good wines will have prices that outweigh quality...then again given the overall crappy notes that I read, maybe prices will take a big drop across the board, and the better wines will be pulled down to reasonable prices...but I highly doubt it).
P pdnnycMember
Not so fast folks. The vintage is reportedly "spotty" which means that there will be some good wines. I tasted a barrel sample of Leoville Poyferre and it was delightful. It'll probably get 88-91 pts. Given that '05 Poyferre was $100 en primeur, I'd pick up a case en primeur for $50-60/btl definitely. I don't see any comparable Calif Cabs going for anything less than $85.
G g-manMember
quote:
Originally posted by PDNNYC:
Not so fast folks. The vintage is reportedly "spotty" which means that there will be some good wines. I tasted a barrel sample of Leoville Poyferre and it was delightful. It'll probably get 88-91 pts. Given that '05 Poyferre was $100 en primeur, I'd pick up a case en primeur for $50-60/btl definitely. I don't see any comparable Calif Cabs going for anything less than $85.


not to be a point whre but ... you'd pay 50-60$ for something that's only rated 88-91 and not to be released for 2 years?
P pdnnycMember
gman-
It will depend on conditions at the time, but sure, I'd pay $50-60 for something rated 88-91 points. I am only guessing about the rating and I don't care too much about the rating. I would like to have at least one case of each post 2000 vintage of Leo Poyf in my cellar regardless of the rating (minus any true disasters but that is unlikely). If I thought I could wait and get the wine upon release at the same price, I would wait, but it may pay to lock in a decent price. For $50 I'd rather have an OK/decent LeoPoyf than to alot of the new world equivalents going for $50.
P pdnnycMember
While I am sure that there is a genuine burgeoning love of wine throughout Asia, many of Asian cultures are also highly, sometimes insanely, status conscious. The headline "Asian buyers scoop up mediocre vintage that Westerners won't touch" would be highly embarrassing to them. I think the Bordelais will have to discount ultimately. I imagine I've offended someone's delicate ethno-racial sensibility. Still, it's true.
P pdnnycMember
Just got an offer on 07 futures that is interesting. 07 Pontet-Canet for $75/btl. 91-94RP and 94-96 neil Martin. So, is this outrageous or not? I don't really think so. Factoring the time value of your money, this is on par to slightly better than what you can get out of California. Plus, PC is a resurgent property whose wines could be that much more sought after by 2010. Does anybody doubt that PC will start to get a price premium the way that Lynch-Bages and Pichon-Baron did after their strong runs in the 1980s? Personally, I like to collect verticals of my favorite wines, so if PC was one of those wines, I'd say $75 was reasonable to ensure I got a case or two into my cellar. I think the trashing of the 07 futures campaign comes from expectations that somehow top flight Bordeaux ought to return to the bargain bin levels after not delivering a stunning vintage. That was never going to happen. All in all, I don't think this represents arrogance on the Bordelais or some sort of fleecing as some people have suggested. Still, I think the Bordelais will have to cut some prices, because I think this opinion will be in the minority. But for now, I am cutting them some slack.
J jimbrennanMember
I think it's a bad price. It seems like lots of wine geeks have this brain disease where they convince themselves that an exorbitantly-priced wine is a good deal because prices for vintages like 2005 are insanely high.

Pontet Canet produces ALOT of wine. It's one of the largest classed growths in terms of production. Typically 25,000 cases, I believe.

Given the vintage, my suspicion is that the eventual bottle score for this will be at the bottom end of the Parker range or below it... while anything is possible, I find it hard to believe that PC has significantly outperformed 2001 (89), 2002 (88), or 2004 (90) given how poor the 2007 vintage was. And the prospect of '07 outperforming 2000 (92) seems absurd (all points are RP).

My thought is that James (Suckling) has been more accurate with his scores for Pontet Canet than Parker from 2000 onward (93, 90, 92, 94, 93, 96), and my guess is that '07 will score lower than any of those.

The Kicker: You can still find just about any vintage 2000 through 2004 for about $75 or less.
mimikmimikMember
I am thinking along the same lines as most of you on this thread. 2007s are set to be less than 5% less expensive than 2006s on futures. Given the abysmal nature of the vintage, I cannot believe that pricing is still so high. My belief from the beginning was that 2005 was priced so high, any decreases for subsequenlty poor vintages would still end up being more expensive than previously considered "off years" such as 1997 or 2002.
L localwinehobbyistMember
quote:
Originally posted by PDNNYC:
While I am sure that there is a genuine burgeoning love of wine throughout Asia, many of Asian cultures are also highly, sometimes insanely, status conscious. The headline "Asian buyers scoop up mediocre vintage that Westerners won't touch" would be highly embarrassing to them.


I think I understand what you're getting at, but I'm not quite sure that "Asian buyers" buy wine as a collective group. Neither am I convinced that an affluent drinker from Hong Kong, Mainland China, or Japan, whom these Decanter and Parker articles seem to focus on, cares much about how a few wine critics may characterize his purchasing decisions.

A more realistic assumption is that Asian consumers sophisticated enough to buy classified growth Bordeaux have access to the same Parker barrel scores that you and I do, and will make the same decisions that most seem to be making - to avoid EP 07 - based upon these scores.

As for consumers in China not understanding EP sales, there are probably 10 kids in Hong Kong reading this thread right now, and Googling "en primeur." I'm simply befuddled by Parker and Decanter's assumption that the West has some kind of monopoly over knowledge of wine.

Sure, billionaires in Hong Kong will buy according to label prestige. But for every Stanley Ho in Hong Kong, there is a Donald Trump here.
G g-manMember
quote:
Originally posted by PDNNYC:
Just got an offer on 07 futures that is interesting. 07 Pontet-Canet for $75/btl. 91-94RP and 94-96 neil Martin. So, is this outrageous or not? I don't really think so. Factoring the time value of your money, this is on par to slightly better than what you can get out of California. Plus, PC is a resurgent property whose wines could be that much more sought after by 2010. Does anybody doubt that PC will start to get a price premium the way that Lynch-Bages and Pichon-Baron did after their strong runs in the 1980s? Personally, I like to collect verticals of my favorite wines, so if PC was one of those wines, I'd say $75 was reasonable to ensure I got a case or two into my cellar. I think the trashing of the 07 futures campaign comes from expectations that somehow top flight Bordeaux ought to return to the bargain bin levels after not delivering a stunning vintage. That was never going to happen. All in all, I don't think this represents arrogance on the Bordelais or some sort of fleecing as some people have suggested. Still, I think the Bordelais will have to cut some prices, because I think this opinion will be in the minority. But for now, I am cutting them some slack.


What kind of cali cabs are you drinking that you feel you won't find better values at the 70$ range?
P pdnnycMember
I'm not saying that values don't exist, but here is a short list of cali cabs that I have been drinking for years:
Silver Oak
Cakebread
Heitz
Duckhorn
Corison
Chappellet
Stag's Leap
Peter Michael Les pavots

With minor exception, all of these have seen substantial price inflation, and you really cannot touch any single vineyard or estate bottled wine from any of these producers for less than, roughly, $90 (unless you are on the mailing list and then sometimes you can score some wines for @$70). I don't think, a decent '07 Pontet-Canet, compares unfavorably to these alternatives. Maybe I need to not be such a creature of habit and find a new stable of cali cabs or maybe my view isn't so nuts. I don't know which!
S sharkeyMember
quote:
Originally posted by PDNNYC:
I don't think, a decent '07 Pontet-Canet, compares unfavorably to these alternatives.


Maybe not, but the point that Jim Brennan makes above -- and I agree -- is that there are even better alternatives available in the market. Why spend $70 per bottle chasing '07 Pontet Canet futures, when, for the same money, you can go buy the '00 (WS 93, WA 92+, IWC 93) or the '03 (WS 94, WA 95, IWC 93)?
P pdnnycMember
Sharky
I understand (and I wasn't arguing with passion for the 07 PC en primeur, just saying it wasn't sheer stupidity). In NYC, where I live, the 2000 PC goes for $115 and the '03 goes for $100, so it is probably a toss up. At 25,000 cases it is probably not a smart bet to buy 07 en primeur. But many of my favorite chateau make less than 5000 cases and so I will probably buy some at least en primeur.

But more importantly, I just don't get stupid comments like some have made like "given the abysmal nature of the vintage". Abysmal? Trust me, Palmer 07 will be far from abysmal. Leoville Barton 07 will be far from abysmal. Grand Puy Lacoste and Rausan Segla will be far from abysmal. If you collect these wines, en primeur is a decent option.
R roentgenrayMember
It sounds like the Sauternes/Barsacs are going to be very interesting. I will definetly pick some up, but I'm not sure if futures is the way to go. Who knows, maybe the dollar will be worth more in a year or two when these come out. That would help offset prices. On the otherhand, if fuel prices continue to increase, shipping costs could certainly bring prices up as well. A lot of ifs, but I know I will buy some of the sweat stuff to go along with my 2001, 2003, and 2005's.
J jimbrennanMember
quote:
Originally posted by PDNNYC:
Sharky
I understand (and I wasn't arguing with passion for the 07 PC en primeur, just saying it wasn't sheer stupidity). In NYC, where I live, the 2000 PC goes for $115 and the '03 goes for $100, so it is probably a toss up. At 25,000 cases it is probably not a smart bet to buy 07 en primeur. But many of my favorite chateau make less than 5000 cases and so I will probably buy some at least en primeur.

But more importantly, I just don't get stupid comments like some have made like "given the abysmal nature of the vintage". Abysmal? Trust me, Palmer 07 will be far from abysmal. Leoville Barton 07 will be far from abysmal. Grand Puy Lacoste and Rausan Segla will be far from abysmal. If you collect these wines, en primeur is a decent option.


Comments:
1) Use wine-searcher pro. Granted that it could be out of date, but I found a place within an hour of NYC that is offering 2000 PC for $75. Another right in the city claims '03 for $75...

2) Have you looked for '01, '02, or '04? Those are clearly in the $75 or less range, and low risk, since their in-bottle scores are known from all the major critics.

3) None of the estates you mentioned above produces 5000 cases or less.

4) Critics are almost universally saying to not buy en primeur in '07. Short of you looking for something allocated like Le Pin or buying 3Ls, it seems like a pretty irrational decision to me...
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