quote:Originally posted by g-man:
i made the safer bet and bought BP @ 39.
with an exit strategy at 46. I still can't see oil increasing yet another 15-20% from here (puts WTI @ ~ 80) but I could be wrong. High oil prices favor the big caps initially with the small caps to follow when oil gets REALLY high. But if you can see oil hitting another 15-20% rally, then by all means, the small caps mentioned would be good buys.
BP ~16% increase over a span of a month, happy to take profit and run.
might not get the big swings from the small caps, but at least i dont have to worry about 30% downside.
Glad you are making some money in the undervalued energy sector.
However, your statement about big vs small cap outperformance is not accurate given recent price action.
Typically, institutional money that wants some exposure to energy will hide out in the big names during a bear market. They will hide out in Suncor, Shell, BP etc.
Meanwhile, the overlevered small cap names such as a BTE will be shorted to oblivion.
Therein lies the opportunity once the bear flips.
Last month or so BTE is up 70% vs BP’s performance.