quote:Originally posted by g-man:
Interesting take, that you think the world is acutally going on the up tick where as i think we're entering a softening cycle.
But yes, my rebuttal is simply a reflection of my belief in a down cycle in response to winetrooper, if you think the global economy still has alot of juice left then, my below analysis wouldnt apply.
The Americas, not just the US has a significant amount of Oil supplies, production may only be the numbers you quoted but that clearly doesnt tell the story when oil prices go up. The supply in north america puts a very heavy downward cap on where the
price of oil can rise.
Alot of this has to do with OPEC + Russia agreeing to cut and Venezuela in a shit hole so they cant sell anything.
We're also starting to see that the North Americans ramping up production to the highest in 10 years, OPEC is starting to break @ the 65$ mark and have increased outputs in Jan. Russia has stated that they're going to start pumping more again too.
Add that to a future potential loss of usage when a larger majority of car manufacturers move towards direct electric engines all point to a limited upside to oil in the long run.
I'd say 75$ is the possibility and 80$ is the stretch. but with WTI @ 65$. 80$ only represents a 23% gain. That's a long holding period / risk for so little gain.
vs. the excellent recommendation of NKTR. 14% in 1 week.
So, I’ll stick to the numbers.
Exxon just projected an increase in demand by 20 million barrels per day until 2040 with stronger gains in early years due to EV replacement in later years.
Many think EV is penetrating now but oil use rises every year (I believe 2008 was the exception). Oil has many uses outside of personal transportation.
In a year or so, Gulf of Mexico production will start to drop off. As well, many legacy wells around the world continue their 4-6% decline per year. Decline never sleeps.
So, I think we’ll see just how much shale will be able to ramp up in 2019-2020 time frame and what price of oil will be needed. The interesting thing about shale is that decline rates can be as high as 70% in the first year. So, it is a bit of a treadmill in terms of adding production.
Finally, we have Saudi on side looking for a higher price to float Aramco. It’s like having the Fed on your side. Also, the spectre of Trump reintroducing sanctions to Iran.
The oil price may not have massive upside but I would argue the equities offer tremendous value here.
As for NKTR (it’s a good pick), I’ll stick will my rec of VLE.TO (PNWRF). It’s up from 42 cents to $5.78 in a few months and this week they will release a resource assessment that will likely be played up by their partner Statoil.