I'm thinking better than 50-50 on the abortion.
Don't care about the base. They're immune to facts and logic. Kind of like the holdout juror in the Manafort trial. No use wasting breath on them at this point.
Every little nail in the coffin that brings another sane Republican, anti-HC or apathetic 2016 voter out to the polls is a win. More little nails coming. I hope the fat prick feels every one of them. Bigly.