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Reply to "Say Something Completely Random And Off Topic"

@The Old Man posted:

You ask me for "polling or evidence" and when I give it to you you say, essentially, polling or evidence doesn't matter this year. I see how this works. It took me a moment, but I think I have it now.

I hope you manage to have a moment of clarity regarding polling.  Let’s take a look at the CNN article:

There have been over 10 national live interview polls since the protests began for which I could assess Black voter sentiment in the presidential race. Altogether, we're looking at well more than 1,000 interviews.

-  1,000 people isn’t a very substantial sample size for a single poll.  It’s even more variable when you’re amalgamating an average of 100 people from 10 different polling groups.  

Biden leads in those polls by an 83% to 8%, or 75-point, margin. That, of course, is a huge advantage for Biden, but it also represents a small improvement for Trump since 2016.

Hillary Clinton was ahead of Trump by a 79-point margin among Black registered voters in the pre-election polls taken right before the 2016 election, as compiled by the New York Times' Nate Cohn. Biden, for what it's worth, is equaling Clinton's 83% in those polls. Trump's picking up a lot of the vote that went to third-party candidates.
 
-  so not only is the author comparing different junctures of the campaigning cycle, but he’s also comparing different sets of options for voters.  Further, what states those who were polled reside in make a substantial difference.  A 3rd party voter switching to Trump in CA, NY or MA is meaningless.  Put that voter in a swing/battleground state, and that’s far more meaningful.
 
Where you’re at in the election cycle oftentimes is important.  Putin’s Bitch pulled even with, and in a few polls took the lead from, HRC in polling right after the RNC convention.  Then HRC retook the lead after the DNC convention.  
 
I’m a firm believer in the mantra of “past results are no guarantee of future performance”.  What happened in 2016 occurring again in 2020 is less likely IMO than a different outcome (either overall, or broken down by demographics and states).  Come November, we’ll see if that’s the case or not.  
 
Last edited by Insight
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