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Reply to "NFL 2019"

billhike posted:
stefaniawine posted:
billhike posted:

This is the first time I’ve been excited about the Bears since before the Jay Cutler era.

Bears were +12 in turnovers last year with no recent history of being a plus team.

Bears lead the league in defensive touchdowns (6), a stat that is largely luck and not repeatable.

Bears go from playing a last place schedule to a first place schedule.

Those are three of the biggest predictors of poor performance relative to the previous season I've found.  That's a bad combo for the Bears.  It's almost exactly the same combo as the 2017/18 Jacksonville Jags. (10/7/worst to first schedule)  I predicted the Jags last year as no better than 8-8.  Finished 5-11. 

The Schedule thing is a killer.  Last year they had seven, 7, count them 7 games against out of division sad saps.  This year they've got 2.

If the Bears make the playoffs this year beer is on me for my net Chicago visit.  Confident I wouldn't be buying.

Hopefully that visit is soon!

Khalil Mack basically had no training camp last year - same with Roquan Smith. I can see six defensive TD's with this team easily, to be honest. 

Yeah, the schedule is a serious challenge. If Trubisky can progress and gain some consistency, I'm optimistic what he can do with some additional weapons they picked up. No blockbusters but nice pieces that can be rotated and kept fresh if they aren't selfish. 

Unfortunately, locally we are still talking way too much about f***ing kickers. 

That's an even easier bet.  Three teams have had 6 in the past 5 years.  The high in the past 5 years is 6.  If I was making book I'd say it's well over 100 x 1 they will have 6 or more again this year.  I think more than 50 x 1 they'd have 3 or more.  Last time they had 6 (2013) they had 1 the following year. 

It's just a stat that doesn't really correlate to anything very closely.  Teams that lead the league tend to be good defensive teams, but good defensive teams can fall anywhere from 1-30 in the rankings for DTD's.  Bad defensive teams can also be at the top, or at the bottom.  When stats show that lack of pattern over a small base, they tend to average back to the middle year over year.  If the league average is 2, the odds are any team, no matter how their defense ranks, will get 2. 

Takeaway +/- show the same pattern of correcting back to a team median.  IF a team averages 5 a year over a few years and then has 10, the next year they are more likely to have 5 than 10.  This one actually took me awhile to figure out because the correction is not back to 0 or even but back to the level the particular team usually performs at.

The 49ers have been a bad +/- team since 2014, averaging about -4, but last season they were -25.  Odds are this year they will be @ -4.  Still not in the top half of the league, but the change will be dramatic on the outcome of games.  The Bears will move the other direction. They've also been about -4 although they've had some horrible -20 seasons also.  Odds are this season they will be right around -4.