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Did something happen to cause the Bear Market thread to get deleted?
 Looks like in about an hour or so it will be official.  |
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Part of the new "improvements." Any over/under on when my Baracky thread gets deleted?
-IB PSA: Please report gratuitous trolling/flaming immediately (little triangle at bottom right). |
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Why did they delete it? I liked that thread...
______________________________________ I'm throwin' rocks tonight. Mark it, Dude. |
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Did I miss something last night? |
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˙ʇı oʇ ʇuǝq ןɐɔıʇıןod ɐ ʇǝƃ oʇ pǝʇɹɐʇs ǝʌɐɥ ʇsnɯ ʇı ʇnq ʎɐpɹǝʇsǝʎ ʇsɐd pɐǝɹɥʇ ǝɥʇ pɐǝɹ ʇ,upıp ı ˙pǝʇǝןǝp ƃuıʇʇǝƃ ɯǝɥʇ ʇnoqɐ pǝıɹɹoʍ ǝɹɐ noʎ ɟı sıɥʇ ǝʞıן sʇsod ɹnoʎ ɟo ןןɐ ǝʞɐɯ ʇsnɾ
__________________________ Alta is for skiers! |
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It had potential to go in "that" direction.
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Well, now it is official... on to next week.
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What did I miss? Highlights (or low-lights) anyone?
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perhaps it was my comment about how you were a fool not to live double your lifestyle when the govt would bail you out? |
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A stronger dollar should get investors pulling from commodities and reallocating those assets to equities. I am a little surprised that the Fed didn't kick rates up at least .25 or at least jawbone a little for a stronger dollar.
********************************************** "Asking government to fix this crisis is like asking the arsonist to put out the fire." -Thomas Sowell |
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I was thinking that would happen with the last proclamation, but Fed seems a little reticent to me. |
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It's qute confusing. When the market sold off several months back, the Fed was active and prompt, dropping rates without any notice to lower the heat. Their timidity here is odd.
********************************************** "Asking government to fix this crisis is like asking the arsonist to put out the fire." -Thomas Sowell |
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The fed kicking up rates stops the flow of money into the economy. If the dollar gets stronger, corporate profits also shrink as the dollar becomes stronger. Foreign money that is still flowing into this market might hestitate a little more with a stronger dollar. Your banks, which is the crux of your financial markets who are already in deep trouble, have to pay .25% more money to borrow money. You walk a vicious line between inflation and recession. |
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There are just too many forces at work here. Quite frankly, I believe that the Fed is a little scared at what's all happening, because they know even the slightest wrong move could really throw a wrench into things.
Not sure where the other thread went. It was the most interesting thing on this forum in months. |
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Clearly, there's a 'bigger picture' that is more desireable to maintain for them. I do tend to agree with Foghorn, though. There are several factors all taking shape simultaneously right now. Interesting,surely. Dangerous waters to say the least.... |
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I agree, and unless I missed something that happened late ( it happens) I'm surprised it was deleted. |
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Traditionally, I believe that the Fed has avoided commentary on the dollar, so Bernanke's comments about it at the beginning of June were unusual. The problem is that the weak dollar has created additional inflationary pressures (inflation being the one of, if not the, chief concern of the Fed), so one could argue that it makes sense to "talk it up" a little. However, he has to be careful with jawboning though. The markets may expect him to take action if he continues to do this.
One way to do this is to raise rates. As g-man pointed out, raising rates right now is problematic. Although it could potentially help bolster the dollar, it puts more pressure on the economy. Banks have to pay more to borrow, and as a result, so does everyone else. As someone who works for a bank (that has actually faired pretty well despite this mess), it seems that a lot of our competition is really clamping down on lending policies, particularly on real estate. Higher rates coupled with tighter guidelines makes it more difficult for consumers to borrow. As g-man pointed out, you walk a fine line between inflation and recession. I think the Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place right now. |
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When does it become 'officially' inflationary? We're seeing it now, and the recent surge in petroleum pricing will surely ripple through to everything else within months. It's inevitable. Call it now or call it later. Prices are on the move up and the pace will only quicken.
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I agree. That's why it is so tough to raise rates right now. It eases inflationary pressures at the expense of growth. |
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3 words. Shiny yellow metal. After a little pause, it's now onward and upward to $1500/oz.
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Curious... gold had treated me well, and has treated me poorly. Either way, ALWAYS good to have a little. Can we just turn back the clock to 1999 again. I swear I will sell ALL of my Cisco stock at $131, I SWEAR!  |
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if you feel the fed is going to start raising interest rates in the future, then gold would be a very poor investment. In the short term "stagflation" environment though, it does make a safe haven. I'd personally wouldn't take the risk and have just ended up buying short term CDs that are insured by the govie but offered at higher rates from these "problem" banks. |
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You might want to check the historical performance. In 1980 gold was at $850 and the interest rate was 14%. Take a look at the period from 72-75 also. I assume you think increasing rates will help your dollar, which will hurt gold? It didn't do much between 2004 and 2006 did it? I'm bullish on gold because I think inflation is really going to accelerate now. It has already started, but the Fed plays hide the weenie by excluding several things when it reports it's numbers. |
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Why was the last thread deleted and this one is allowed to stay? It is kind of hard to get a feel for the rules.
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