Now that WS has started with the "Countdown " on the website, it's time to start with the speculation. I'll start with two or three wines.

If you search the database for wines rated in 2012, and filter for those wines that rated 96 or higher, with at least 5,000 cases, and cost less than $90 a bottle, you find that only two wines meet the criteria: 2009 Guirard 96 points at $60 and 11,000 cases, and Vieux Donjon 96 points at $66 with 8,000 cases. That's not to say wines at a higher cost or less production won't beat them out, but those other high scoring wines don't have the "availability and value" if they cost more and/or have smaller production.

As a longshot for the Top 10, but one with a good "X" factor, is the 2010 Evening Land Pinot La Source, $60, 95 points. However, it's production of only 971 cases works against it. Again using the database filters for ALL 2009 and 2010 Oregon pinots, you'll see WS rated 461 wines, and only three of those had a rating of 95 points, with none higher.

Other guesses?????

CA Pinot and Syrah the last 2 years, a modestly-priced WA the year before that as a kindness to the proles. And the year before that, something from Chile?

So we now have on the market 2 vintages of the century from Bordeaux and all the news is about the Asian market and how they're building replicas of French Chateaux in China, etc.

I'm thinking WOTY is going to be a Bordeaux. Other than that, Tom did a great report on Rioja recently and I'd expect to see something from there on the list too.

I'm hoping a WA Rhone varietal or blend is in thye top 10. I found them very impressive.

here's hoping a pinot hits #1

The 2009 Beringer Knights Valley Cab Reserve (94) is a good top 15 candidate.

The 2010 St. Cosme Gigondas should make the list (95) at $41. Or something from them as it looks like they killed it this vintage.

I would expect the list will be seasoned with 2009 Bordeaux too.

quote:

Originally posted by g-man:
here's hoping a pinot hits #1

Yeah.... I hope the top 100 is chock full of California Pinot Noir and Shiraz. As long as nothing I'm interested in buying is in the top 20, I'm good.

PH

quote:

Originally posted by PurpleHaze:
Yeah.... I hope the top 100 is chock full of California Pinot Noir and Shiraz.

PH

quote:

Originally posted by Swade:
The 2009 Beringer Knights Valley Cab Reserve (94) is a good top 15 candidate.

The 2010 St. Cosme Gigondas should make the list (95) at $41. Or something from them as it looks like they killed it this vintage.

I would expect the list will be seasoned with 2009 Bordeaux too.

The 2009 Knights Valley regular bottling got 91 pts so that might make as well as it's under $20 at costco.

quote:

Originally posted by Swade:
The 2009 Beringer Knights Valley Cab Reserve (94) is a good top 15 candidate.

The 2010 St. Cosme Gigondas should make the list (95) at $41. Or something from them as it looks like they killed it this vintage.

I would expect the list will be seasoned with 2009 Bordeaux too.

Haven't taken delivery yet but I was able to order 4 of that St. Cosme for $28.95 each.

quote:

Originally posted by PurpleHaze:

quote:

Originally posted by g-man:
here's hoping a pinot hits #1

Yeah.... I hope the top 100 is chock full of California Pinot Noir and Shiraz. As long as nothing I'm interested in buying is in the top 20, I'm good.

PH

Good odds that the Calera Central Coast 2010 93pts and under $25 may be in the top 20. I take it you don't like their single vineyards.

Good call on the Calera, Merenge. That's a good bet.

2008 Columbia Crest Reserve Cab Sauv (you may recall it's 2005 older brother was WOTY) received a 93. Mixed reviews from others. I'll be interested to see if it is in the mix. Well, maybe not interested..., but if it makes the list HS must have stood behind it.

I used to wait with baited breath for the Top 100 and try to predict and see what I had purchased. Then it became a bit of a joke, and to be perfectly honest, I don't give a rats a$$ anymore and I don't chase. I think I've learned to trust my own palate (and those of board members) and don't fall prey to the marketing and hyperbole of the media.

I think the 2010 Schild Estate should have strong considerations for Top 5.

<Yawn>

This is a recording........

quote:

Originally posted by DoktaP:
I used to wait with baited breath for the Top 100 and try to predict and see what I had purchased. Then it became a bit of a joke, and to be perfectly honest, I don't give a rats a$$ anymore and I don't chase. I think I've learned to trust my own palate (and those of board members) and don't fall prey to the marketing and hyperbole of the media.

+ 1

quote:

Originally posted by DoktaP:
I used to wait with baited breath for the Top 100 and try to predict and see what I had purchased. Then it became a bit of a joke, and to be perfectly honest, I don't give a rats a$$ anymore and I don't chase. I think I've learned to trust my own palate (and those of board members) and don't fall prey to the marketing and hyperbole of the media.

I'm not sure anyone is going to rush out to buy the wines, whatever they are. I mean, they're already on the market for the most part and if anyone's interested, they could just buy them today. It's not like an appearance on the list should make the wine more desirable suddenly. I think people are just speculating on the thinking that goes into the list. That said, I don't see a CA Pinot on top again, although given the love, I'm sure there will be one in the top 10.

quote:

Originally posted by GregT:
I'm not sure anyone is going to rush out to buy the wines.....It's not like an appearance on the list should make the wine more desirable suddenly.....

Being on a list shouldn't make a wine more desireable, unless you're a point/award/medal chaser. That said, purchases and pricing are definitely affected by this list, particularly the top 10.

PH

quote:

Originally posted by PurpleHaze:

quote:

Originally posted by GregT:
I'm not sure anyone is going to rush out to buy the wines.....It's not like an appearance on the list should make the wine more desirable suddenly.....

Being on a list shouldn't make a wine more desireable, unless you're a point/award/medal chaser. That said, purchases and pricing are definitely affected by this list, particularly the top 10.

PH

exactly!

/me strokes the WS #1 1984 Caymus SS, my precious

I bought a handful of the 2001 Casanova di Neri Tenuta Nuova BdM from Premier Cru a few weeks before the list came out that year when putting together a couple mixed cases of this vintage. Paid $40 apiece. The price subsequently spiked to around $250 or so within a few weeks. Avg. Cellartracker cost: $133. Average WineSearcher list: $218.

PH

For the last 5 years every WOTY was $80 or less, 95+ pts, and 950+ cases (but typically around 5,000). Running that screen (with 1000+ cases) for wines tasted blind this year we have 18 wines. Interestingly 5 are CdP's, and as the last French WOTY was 2007, they may go that route. However, not a single 2009 Bordeaux made that list of 18. The simple reason is that you can't buy a 95-pt Bordeaux for less than $95 (WS retail, for what it's worth anyway). I am sure some 2009 Bordeaux will make the top 100, but I doubt we'll see one at #1.

So your thoughts on my pick of the 2010 Le Vieux Donjon, at 96 points, $66, and 8,000 cases?

Maybe some would consider it point chasing, but the list can be a good way (like reading WS ratings, blog entries, etc) on picking up on new wines you might have otherwise overlooked.

Also, it can be a good way to expose friends to better wines if they like wine but don't actively pursue it as a hobby. Every year I give wine as Christmas gifts to a select group of friends and look for quality, good QPR wines, and a couple of years ago was able to tell them the Seghesio Zin in the box was among Spectator's top 10 wines of the year. It made it a little more interesting to them, and a couple of them actively sought it out at their local shops.

So while I don't go hunting down a wine just because it's on the list, that doesn't mean the list doesn't have it's uses.

quote:

Originally posted by Winesteven:
So your thoughts on my pick of the 2010 Le Vieux Donjon, at 96 points, $66, and 8,000 cases?

I'd say it's a great bet to crack the top 20, but probably not #1.

Comparing the highest rated wine in the screen (with 5000+ cases) for the past 5 years to where it actually ranked we see:
2011 Top 100 - 2006 Campogiovanni Brunello - #4
2010 Top 100 - 2007 Dow Vintage Port - #14
2009 Top 100 - 2006 Barone Ricasoli Chianti Classico Castello di Brolio - #5
2008 Top 100 - 2005 Chateau Guiraud Sauternes - #4
2007 Top 100 - 2005 Clos Des Papes CdP - #1

So only in 2007 did the highest rated wine which fit the screen actually take WOTY honors.

No real value in this analysis except that if you really like any of those 18 producers I'd buy the wine now as opposed to waiting for a possible price spike in a few weeks... because the only certainty with a WOTY is that the price will increase drastically. Drink what you love!

As far as individual wines, I have no clue. I haven’t read the tasting note section in the back of WS in years so I don’t know what wines scored well. That said, I would think 09 Bordeaux, 09-10 Rhone and 09-10 Burgundy should do well since the vintages were well liked. Ditto for 06 riserva in Brunello and 06-07 for piedmont. Not sure about CA-WA as I don’t pay much attention to the vintage ratings there.

quote:

Originally posted by RedLoverJim:
Maybe some would consider it point chasing, but the list can be a good way (like reading WS ratings, blog entries, etc) on picking up on new wines you might have otherwise overlooked.

Also, it can be a good way to expose friends to better wines if they like wine but don't actively pursue it as a hobby. Every year I give wine as Christmas gifts to a select group of friends and look for quality, good QPR wines, and a couple of years ago was able to tell them the Seghesio Zin in the box was among Spectator's top 10 wines of the year. It made it a little more interesting to them, and a couple of them actively sought it out at their local shops.

So while I don't go hunting down a wine just because it's on the list, that doesn't mean the list doesn't have it's uses.

It’s a very good point and one we discuss every year on this thread. Getting the average joe to put down the yellow tail and start drinking more fine wine is a good thing and I think this list helps do that to some degree. I also think the list is cheapened a little when something like Columbia Crest is rated number 1. Nothing against CC, but was that really the most exciting wine of the year?