quote:

Originally posted by cb1:

quote:

Originally posted by Pomerollvr:
For anyone that does not think buying Futures off, you are either buying the wrong wines, or the wrong vintages, or both. In top years, buying the best wines pays off the vast majority of the time. Even with the financial meltdown, my 05's still show at least a 40% profit.

Can you give us some examples of wines you bought in '05 that have maintained 40% profit?

I'm not really comfortable going into every wine I buy. But I can assure you, and the people who know me will assure you as well, I own the majority of wines cited as examples in this post. There are wines at a myriad of price ranges starting at $15. The majority were under $100.

On the high end, early buyers of Ausone for $850 still see 300% profit. 05 Lafleur was available for $500. That is also up between 100 & 200%. For anyone that knows me, I never once advocated buying the Firsts in 05, other than Haut Brion. There were numerous other deals available. The prices I paid were all from Nationally known retailers. Most prices hung around for a while. A few prices like Haut Brion shot up in a few days. But a lot of good deals were available for quite a while, due to the very high prices being asked in the first place.

Bottom line, if you want the best Bordeaux wines at the lowest possible from hot vintages, step up and buy them quickly. History has shown time and time again that approach pays off.

These are a few examples. There are others, but these are off the top off the top of my head from a quick glance. I'm not up on current market prices. I spent a lot more time watching how much were appreciating than keeping track of prices as they were falling, but these examples give you a decent idea on what took place at the time.

FWIW, I also bought wines that due to the financial crisis are selling for close to what I paid for them as well. There are also numerous wines that are up 10%, 20% and 30% as well as wines that remain up over 100%.



05 Haut Bailly
05 Haut Brion $375
05 La Mission $215
05 Pape Clement $135
05 Malescot St. Exupery $60
05 Rauzan Segla $75
05 Pontet Canet $75
05 Clos L'Eglise $80
05 Croix St. Georges $45
05 L'Eglise Clinet $200
05 L'Evangile $185
05 Hosana $120
05 Chapelle Ausone $120
05 Clos Fourtet $70
05 Clos St. Martin $60
05 La Clotte $35
05 Fleur Cardinale $35
05 La Fleur Morange Mathilde $22
05 Larcis Ducasse $90
05 Monbousquet $45
05 Puygueraud $15
05 Pavie Macquin $80
05 Pierre De Lunne $40
05 Tertre Rotebeouf $155
05 Troplong Mondot $150
05 Branaire Ducru $55

quote:

Originally posted by jburman82:
Let the Asian investors buy them and then have no one to sell them too.

What's the difference between "Asian" investors and "Regular" investors. Can you elaborate? Not sure if you know any of these "Asian" people investors personally..... Why wish them ill will when you say hope that they have no one to sell them to...

quote:

Originally posted by TheEngineer:

quote:

Originally posted by jburman82:
Let the Asian investors buy them and then have no one to sell them too.

What's the difference between "Asian" investors and "Regular" investors. Can you elaborate? Not sure if you know any of these "Asian" people investors personally..... Why wish them ill will when you say hope that they have no one to sell them to...

My point was the Asian markets are the biggest drive behind the high bordeaux prices. No real difference, just more of them with more money backing them up. Hence the astronomical rise in prices over the last few years.

Also, I didnt say I hoped they have no one to sell to. I dont think they will get good resale profits if it is priced like 2005. I think buying ridiculously expensive wine with little to no upside is dumb, unless you want to drink it.

Many thanks JBurman. I appreciate the clarification.

Interesting about the Pavie Macquin. Here is a wine that was offered at around $70 - $80 at first tranche back in 2006. After the Parker score it shot up to an absurd amount , I think it hovered around $250-$350 at one time. A quick wine-searcher search reveals that it now can be obtained for around $120. Amazing!!

quote:

Originally posted by mareff:
Interesting about the Pavie Macquin. Here is a wine that was offered at around $70 - $80 at first tranche back in 2006. After the Parker score it shot up to an absurd amount , I think it hovered around $250-$350 at one time. A quick wine-searcher search reveals that it now can be obtained for around $120. Amazing!!

jburman and I just went in for some '05 Cos for $149.97. The wine had been marked down from $209 at my Costco. I have no idea what pricing was on the 1st tranche, but I would assume it was less. I really felt like I got a First-Growth quality wine for a fraction of the price.

quote:

Originally posted by Keeno:

quote:

Originally posted by mareff:
Interesting about the Pavie Macquin. Here is a wine that was offered at around $70 - $80 at first tranche back in 2006. After the Parker score it shot up to an absurd amount , I think it hovered around $250-$350 at one time. A quick wine-searcher search reveals that it now can be obtained for around $120. Amazing!!

jburman and I just went in for some '05 Cos for $149.97. The wine had been marked down from $209 at my Costco. I have no idea what pricing was on the 1st tranche, but I would assume it was less. I really felt like I got a First-Growth quality wine for a fraction of the price.

First tranche for Cos was around $180, I think I paid $175.00 for it. Thus is you got it for $150.00, I would say that you did alright. If the vintage holds up, over time, it will shoot back up.

quote:

Originally posted by jburman82:
My point was the Asian markets are the biggest drive behind the high bordeaux prices. No real difference, just more of them with more money backing them up. Hence the astronomical rise in prices over the last few years.

Other than Lafite, Asia is not that big a market. Very little wine is sold there compared to America. The largest share of top Bordeaux is still bought by Americans and Europeans, especially when it comes to Futures.

quote:

Originally posted by Pomerollvr:

quote:

Originally posted by jburman82:
My point was the Asian markets are the biggest drive behind the high bordeaux prices. No real difference, just more of them with more money backing them up. Hence the astronomical rise in prices over the last few years.

Other than Lafite, Asia is not that big a market. Very little wine is sold there compared to America. The largest share of top Bordeaux is still bought by Americans and Europeans, especially when it comes to Futures.

Where have read/heard this? It is the exact opposite of everything I have been hearing. I have read/heard the Far East has been driving the auction markets and getting a larger share of futures every year. I'd be interested in reading anything you have on it.

quote:

Originally posted by jburman82:

quote:

Originally posted by Pomerollvr:

quote:

Originally posted by jburman82:
My point was the Asian markets are the biggest drive behind the high bordeaux prices. No real difference, just more of them with more money backing them up. Hence the astronomical rise in prices over the last few years.

Other than Lafite, Asia is not that big a market. Very little wine is sold there compared to America. The largest share of top Bordeaux is still bought by Americans and Europeans, especially when it comes to Futures.

Where have read/heard this? It is the exact opposite of everything I have been hearing. I have read/heard the Far East has been driving the auction markets and getting a larger share of futures every year. I'd be interested in reading anything you have on it.

My information comes first hand, directly from one on one conversations with Chateau Owners and Negociants. A few Chateau have a stronger identity than others in select Asian markets, but for most Chateau, Asia is well below America and Europe.

For Futures, very little wine is sold in Asian markets as Futures is not generally accepted as a business model.

Auctions are hot currently hot in Asia. But when you think about it, compared to how much wine is produced, the volume level is low. However, prices set in Asian markets will move auction markets in similar directions. But keep in mind, prices and demand in the auction market has nothing to do with current pricing or allocations in Bordeaux.

Hopefully the prices stay down.

I was at a Bordeaux seminar downtown last week and they said '09 was looking a lot like 2005.

quote:

Originally posted by Berno:
Hopefully the prices stay down.

I was at a Bordeaux seminar downtown last week and they said '09 was looking a lot like 2005.

Interesting, who was giving the seminar? Jancis Robinson's contacts are suggesting the 2009 is more like 2000 than 2005.

People from Sopexo put it on. It was a very in depth seminar. I learned a lot, and I didn't think I would.

Well according to the weather patterns, virtually perfect weather around the country.

Here we go again folks, come on and enjoy the ride...I think the song goes"

"I am going to hell in a bucket but at least I am enjoying the ride" brahhahhahaaaa

AFP " 2009 Bordeaux set to be century's 1st great vintage"
What happened to 2000 and 2005 ?

Telegraph " 2009 Bordeaux vintage 'set to be best in 60 years thanks to perfect weather' "
ZZZ ....

Great, maybe prices for the lost vintages of 2005 and 2000 come cheaper. What about the "off" years like 2004 and 2001, people will surely be dumping these to clear space for the perfect years. I love, I'll let someone else overpay for hype while I scoop reasonably priced great wine from "off" years. In my experience, I've always found that if you're going to pay a premium in for Bordeaux for either vintage or chateau, you get more bang for the buck paying up for producer.

Bill, I'll be in line with you to buy '01's and '04's, certainly before purchasing any 06's, 07's or '08's.

Ok, here's a question. For the sake of this question, let's presume that, in terms of quality, 2009 Bordeaux will be in the same ball park as 2000 & 2005. At what previous vintage's price level will your favorites need to be offered in order for you to jump in? 2004? 2001? 1998? etc...?

Jburman82...

All of my contacts in the business would agree with Pomerollvr. The Asian auctions and suppliers/brokers are seeing movement at high prices in high end Bordeaux (mostly 1sts....and in that group it's mostly Lafite and Latour), and they're buying up high end Burgundy. Outside of that....most of Bordeaux, Australia, Chile, California, you name it is all sold to the Western World.

And...given that the East is leaving us in the dust coming out of this recession....I don't see how these wine regions are going to make it without dropping prices dramatically for their predominantly Western clientel.

Good point Doc, will be interesting to see in the coming months. Then again I thought that there would be some stellar sales for '00-04 bordeaux, in that retailers wanted to dump some of the vintages in favor of 05's and 06's. I have not seen much in this but hey the year is not over yet.

I did speak to a local retailer who has yet to make his big purchases for the holiday season and he mentioned that sometime later this month, wholesalers/distributors would have wine available for sale pricing.

With that being said, if the 09 vintage is similar in price to the 03 vintage, then perhaps I would jump on board.

There is no way 2009 will be affordable. With the declining value of the Greenback, things aren't looking too cheerful for us. Since China's currency isn't floating, they can't be benefiting from this either. It's going to be tough for bordeaux's 2 major markets.

And for those institutional wine horders that jacks the price up, I curse them with all the words that you won't find in a dictionary.

2008 will be the affordable pair to 2009 as 2001 is to 2000

ANd 2007 will be even further reduced. Time to start looking at that a little further.

After the absurd prices of '05, I decided to break-up with Bordeaux. There are lots of other wines out there. Some day I'll find one that's right for me.

i stockpiled in 2005 and did pay the price (mostly in the $80-$140 range, no first growths), because i never had a chance at 2000 or other older vintages.

that being said, it is tiring to hear that 'vintage of the century' quote every few years. thinking that you just bought from a 'vintage of the century'. i think some of it is marketing and a scheme. afterall hype has historically caused us to go out and buy. if it is a great vintage, how much better can it get from a 2000 or near perfect 2005?! in general, can our palettes even pinpoint this difference?! i doubt it.