Well it should come as no surprise, that the talk is already starting. Comparing the vintage to 1947? Comparing it to 2005 + 1982. Not sure I can deal with another vintage of the decade...

Hey James (Suckling), any thoughts? When do you head over to check out this latest rumor??

Mike

Have the grapes even been harvested?

Are people rooting for bad vintages?? I hope it is another stellar vintage because the more good wine in the market the better! Obviously the Bordeaux PR machine has to be taken with a heavy grain of salt, but based on weather alone it looks like some good wine “should” be made. Time will tell and pricing is key, but I would love another great vintage to choose from.

quote:

Originally posted by GlennK:
Are people rooting for bad vintages?? .

Heck no! Good points above. A market flooded with fantastic wine sure would get prices to drop on older vintages, wouldn't it?

I hope so Indy. Hoping that the 07 vintage would be dumped. Not sure what the '06's are doing but they are hardly discounted around here. There is one retailer in NJ that has some decent discounts on 05 and 06.

Time will tell. From what I am reading, the weather is the best indicator for a stellar vintage

quote:

Originally posted by GlennK:
Are people rooting for bad vintages?? I hope it is another stellar vintage because the more good wine in the market the better! Obviously the Bordeaux PR machine has to be taken with a heavy grain of salt, but based on weather alone it looks like some good wine “should” be made. Time will tell and pricing is key, but I would love another great vintage to choose from.

I am not rooting for a bad vintage at all. I don't pay that much attention to Bordeaux anyway. However, I think, at the minimum, they need to get the grapes off the vines before touting this kind of success. Just my opinion.

We already know what happened in Right Bank, price wouldn't be affordable anyway given the crop size.

Save yourselves the hype, you will get plenty later, regardless the Vintage is good or bad.

quote:

Originally posted by GlennK:
Time will tell and pricing is key, but I would love another great vintage to choose from.

G, good point. I would imagine a very good to great 2009 would further depress prices for 2006 and 2008. In addition, there is still some decent quantity of 2004 on shelves which IMHO is a great QPR vintage.

I just bought my 08 on futures I wont see for two years from premier cru. I'm not pressed on this one.

quote:

Originally posted by mpls wine guy:
I just bought my 08 on futures I wont see for two years from premier cru. I'm not pressed on this one.

Two years? I think I wont get the rest of my 05 futures from PC for another two years.

We should start an over/under on whether '08 arrives on shelves at lower prices than you paid for the futures (and a few years earlier too!)...

Futures are a scam imho. The only reason to buy them is to assure you get the bottles you want, regardless of price. The only vintage in the past dozen or so in which the wines were later released at higher prices was 2000. Hell, even the 05's were released around here for only a few bucks more than the futures prices, and that was a vintage of the century. 2009 futures??? Pass. I have better ways to spend money.

quote:

Originally posted by steve8:
Futures are a scam imho. The only reason to buy them is to assure you get the bottles you want, regardless of price. The only vintage in the past dozen or so in which the wines were later released at higher prices was 2000. Hell, even the 05's were released around here for only a few bucks more than the futures prices, and that was a vintage of the century. 2009 futures??? Pass. I have better ways to spend money.

Or if you want large format.

quote:

Originally posted by steve8:
Futures are a scam imho. The only reason to buy them is to assure you get the bottles you want, regardless of price. The only vintage in the past dozen or so in which the wines were later released at higher prices was 2000. Hell, even the 05's were released around here for only a few bucks more than the futures prices, and that was a vintage of the century. 2009 futures??? Pass. I have better ways to spend money.

03 Futures paid off too if chosen properly on 1st tranche, and 05s selectively were good deals on 1st tranche. Beyond 1st tranche I agree with you completely since 2000. After buying 6 consecutive futures vintages (2000-2005) I passed completely on 06 & will continue to do so for the forseeable future.

Wait for right bank '09 Grossie...


heheheee

I am not sure that I am all that interested in purchasing wine for my kids. But if the price of back vintages fall, I am all for it (no guarantee of that happening, though).

St. Emilion and Margaux had a serious hail storm around 12/13 May causing devastation to some vineyards. You can expect some short supply in these regions so if the 09 wines are rated highly the shortage will push prices even higher.

Let's see how they are priced. No one can afford more glut, so it should prove interesting.

What pricing would get people interested? Pricing at 2004 levels maybe?

ANybody else read the Garagiste update. He is thinking they will be priced higher than 2005. NO WAY I buy if they do. Let the Asian investors buy them and then have no one to sell them too.

It is too early to tell about 2009. But it's looking good! Some young Merlot vines are already being picked. There should be a lot of action in Pomerol by the end of next week.

Most of the growers I speak with are very excited about the possibilities. But some have also let me know they needed more water as it was a very dry year. Not as hot as 03, but almost as dry. However it's been raining a bit lately, so who knows?

I'm going to be in Bordeaux for the harvest, so it will be fun to chat with growers and wine makers while the grapes are being brought in.

As for prices... Your guess is as good as mine. It depends on the quality and style of wine as well as the financial stability of the world economy when the wines are priced, which is over half a year away. A lot can happen either way in that time. The comment from Garagiste about 09 being more money than 05 seems like it was written by someone with a lot of back stock to sell. I have no idea what they're going to sell for, but in today's economy, I doubt it.

Regarding 08 pricing, the top wines remain well priced and with few exceptions, most are still available for their original offering price. Not much wine was made in 08 so I doubt the top wines will be discounted.

For anyone that does not think buying Futures off, you are either buying the wrong wines, or the wrong vintages, or both. In top years, buying the best wines pays off the vast majority of the time. Even with the financial meltdown, my 05's still show at least a 40% profit and my 2000 futures are up between 60% and 80%.

My '05's are not at 40% but they are higher than what I originally paid for them. I am still a fan of futures on a good to great vintage. I did buy 08 futures mostly for my son for birth year wine. As far as 09 goes, time will tell and the world economy will be the deciding factor!

What are they saying about the left bank?

Have not heard anything as of yet. But that will change, give it two months or so

quote:

Originally posted by Pomerollvr:
For anyone that does not think buying Futures off, you are either buying the wrong wines, or the wrong vintages, or both. In top years, buying the best wines pays off the vast majority of the time. Even with the financial meltdown, my 05's still show at least a 40% profit.

Can you give us some examples of wines you bought in '05 that have maintained 40% profit?

quote:

Originally posted by cb1:
Can you give us some examples of wines you bought in '05 that have maintained 40% profit?

Like most Bordeaux campaigns, any wine with a huge RP score. Off the top of my head, most first growths, LLC, Malescot, Pontet-Canet and La Mission to name a few. Granted you had to get these on the first or maybe second tranche of futures to still see the increases.