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2007 Bordeaux futures?
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I think it's a bad price. It seems like lots of wine geeks have this brain disease where they convince themselves that an exorbitantly-priced wine is a good deal because prices for vintages like 2005 are insanely high.

Pontet Canet produces ALOT of wine. It's one of the largest classed growths in terms of production. Typically 25,000 cases, I believe.

Given the vintage, my suspicion is that the eventual bottle score for this will be at the bottom end of the Parker range or below it... while anything is possible, I find it hard to believe that PC has significantly outperformed 2001 (89), 2002 (88), or 2004 (90) given how poor the 2007 vintage was. And the prospect of '07 outperforming 2000 (92) seems absurd (all points are RP).

My thought is that James (Suckling) has been more accurate with his scores for Pontet Canet than Parker from 2000 onward (93, 90, 92, 94, 93, 96), and my guess is that '07 will score lower than any of those.

The Kicker: You can still find just about any vintage 2000 through 2004 for about $75 or less.
 
Posts: 427 | Registered: Feb 06, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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I see that along with the offer, some merchants are sending a "price rationalization" explanation letter as well. They will probably have to in order to sell any of this stuff as futures.
 
Posts: 513 | Location: Plano, TX | Registered: Mar 01, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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I am thinking along the same lines as most of you on this thread. 2007s are set to be less than 5% less expensive than 2006s on futures. Given the abysmal nature of the vintage, I cannot believe that pricing is still so high. My belief from the beginning was that 2005 was priced so high, any decreases for subsequenlty poor vintages would still end up being more expensive than previously considered "off years" such as 1997 or 2002.


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Posts: 6627 | Location: Montreal | Registered: Feb 21, 2004Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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I will bet that anyone looking for 2007s will be much better served by simply tracking them down after release. I seriously doubt 2007 Pontet Canet will be more expensive on release than it is on futures right now, and there are likely to be a few "fire sales" where it might be cheaper.


Stay thirsty my friends.
 
Posts: 3176 | Location: Saginaw, MI | Registered: Mar 12, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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quote:
Originally posted by PDNNYC:
While I am sure that there is a genuine burgeoning love of wine throughout Asia, many of Asian cultures are also highly, sometimes insanely, status conscious. The headline "Asian buyers scoop up mediocre vintage that Westerners won't touch" would be highly embarrassing to them.


I think I understand what you're getting at, but I'm not quite sure that "Asian buyers" buy wine as a collective group. Neither am I convinced that an affluent drinker from Hong Kong, Mainland China, or Japan, whom these Decanter and Parker articles seem to focus on, cares much about how a few wine critics may characterize his purchasing decisions.

A more realistic assumption is that Asian consumers sophisticated enough to buy classified growth Bordeaux have access to the same Parker barrel scores that you and I do, and will make the same decisions that most seem to be making - to avoid EP 07 - based upon these scores.

As for consumers in China not understanding EP sales, there are probably 10 kids in Hong Kong reading this thread right now, and Googling "en primeur." I'm simply befuddled by Parker and Decanter's assumption that the West has some kind of monopoly over knowledge of wine.

Sure, billionaires in Hong Kong will buy according to label prestige. But for every Stanley Ho in Hong Kong, there is a Donald Trump here.
 
Posts: 16 | Registered: Nov 06, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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quote:
Originally posted by PDNNYC:
Just got an offer on 07 futures that is interesting. 07 Pontet-Canet for $75/btl. 91-94RP and 94-96 neil Martin. So, is this outrageous or not? I don't really think so. Factoring the time value of your money, this is on par to slightly better than what you can get out of California. Plus, PC is a resurgent property whose wines could be that much more sought after by 2010. Does anybody doubt that PC will start to get a price premium the way that Lynch-Bages and Pichon-Baron did after their strong runs in the 1980s? Personally, I like to collect verticals of my favorite wines, so if PC was one of those wines, I'd say $75 was reasonable to ensure I got a case or two into my cellar. I think the trashing of the 07 futures campaign comes from expectations that somehow top flight Bordeaux ought to return to the bargain bin levels after not delivering a stunning vintage. That was never going to happen. All in all, I don't think this represents arrogance on the Bordelais or some sort of fleecing as some people have suggested. Still, I think the Bordelais will have to cut some prices, because I think this opinion will be in the minority. But for now, I am cutting them some slack.


What kind of cali cabs are you drinking that you feel you won't find better values at the 70$ range?


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Posts: 12355 | Location: NYC | Registered: Feb 16, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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I'm not saying that values don't exist, but here is a short list of cali cabs that I have been drinking for years:
Silver Oak
Cakebread
Heitz
Duckhorn
Corison
Chappellet
Stag's Leap
Peter Michael Les pavots

With minor exception, all of these have seen substantial price inflation, and you really cannot touch any single vineyard or estate bottled wine from any of these producers for less than, roughly, $90 (unless you are on the mailing list and then sometimes you can score some wines for @$70). I don't think, a decent '07 Pontet-Canet, compares unfavorably to these alternatives. Maybe I need to not be such a creature of habit and find a new stable of cali cabs or maybe my view isn't so nuts. I don't know which!
 
Posts: 244 | Registered: May 07, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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quote:
Originally posted by PDNNYC:
I don't think, a decent '07 Pontet-Canet, compares unfavorably to these alternatives.


Maybe not, but the point that Jim Brennan makes above -- and I agree -- is that there are even better alternatives available in the market. Why spend $70 per bottle chasing '07 Pontet Canet futures, when, for the same money, you can go buy the '00 (WS 93, WA 92+, IWC 93) or the '03 (WS 94, WA 95, IWC 93)?
 
Posts: 1579 | Location: STL | Registered: Dec 22, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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The only reason I can see for an en-primeur purchase is to continue a vertical. I hocked myself to the eyeballs to buy 05 Bord and Burg, probably the last great vintage of either I will be able to afford.


you are not truly drunk if you can fall to the ground and not have to hang on.
 
Posts: 60 | Location: australia | Registered: May 20, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Sharky
I understand (and I wasn't arguing with passion for the 07 PC en primeur, just saying it wasn't sheer stupidity). In NYC, where I live, the 2000 PC goes for $115 and the '03 goes for $100, so it is probably a toss up. At 25,000 cases it is probably not a smart bet to buy 07 en primeur. But many of my favorite chateau make less than 5000 cases and so I will probably buy some at least en primeur.

But more importantly, I just don't get stupid comments like some have made like "given the abysmal nature of the vintage". Abysmal? Trust me, Palmer 07 will be far from abysmal. Leoville Barton 07 will be far from abysmal. Grand Puy Lacoste and Rausan Segla will be far from abysmal. If you collect these wines, en primeur is a decent option.
 
Posts: 244 | Registered: May 07, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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It sounds like the Sauternes/Barsacs are going to be very interesting. I will definetly pick some up, but I'm not sure if futures is the way to go. Who knows, maybe the dollar will be worth more in a year or two when these come out. That would help offset prices. On the otherhand, if fuel prices continue to increase, shipping costs could certainly bring prices up as well. A lot of ifs, but I know I will buy some of the sweat stuff to go along with my 2001, 2003, and 2005's.
 
Posts: 1201 | Location: SLC,UT | Registered: Jan 03, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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quote:
Originally posted by PDNNYC:
Sharky
I understand (and I wasn't arguing with passion for the 07 PC en primeur, just saying it wasn't sheer stupidity). In NYC, where I live, the 2000 PC goes for $115 and the '03 goes for $100, so it is probably a toss up. At 25,000 cases it is probably not a smart bet to buy 07 en primeur. But many of my favorite chateau make less than 5000 cases and so I will probably buy some at least en primeur.

But more importantly, I just don't get stupid comments like some have made like "given the abysmal nature of the vintage". Abysmal? Trust me, Palmer 07 will be far from abysmal. Leoville Barton 07 will be far from abysmal. Grand Puy Lacoste and Rausan Segla will be far from abysmal. If you collect these wines, en primeur is a decent option.


Comments:
1) Use wine-searcher pro. Granted that it could be out of date, but I found a place within an hour of NYC that is offering 2000 PC for $75. Another right in the city claims '03 for $75...

2) Have you looked for '01, '02, or '04? Those are clearly in the $75 or less range, and low risk, since their in-bottle scores are known from all the major critics.

3) None of the estates you mentioned above produces 5000 cases or less.

4) Critics are almost universally saying to not buy en primeur in '07. Short of you looking for something allocated like Le Pin or buying 3Ls, it seems like a pretty irrational decision to me...
 
Posts: 427 | Registered: Feb 06, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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It was not my intention to get into a debate over this stuff...

thanks for the tip re wine searcher
 
Posts: 244 | Registered: May 07, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Not looking to beat you up, but you _asked_ whether it seems like a good idea. It's not. If you've got some personal reason that compels you to buy, so be it, but from just about every purely rational angle, it isn't a good idea.
 
Posts: 427 | Registered: Feb 06, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Absolutely no interest in 07 futures.


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Posts: 2983 | Location: San Diego | Registered: Jan 17, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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So far the only thing I've picked up is some Sauternes. I'll probably get a case or two of the 375's.

So far:
Chateau Myrat
Doisy Daene
 
Posts: 2207 | Location: Chicago Suburbs | Registered: Oct 25, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Chateau Margaux has released their 2007 futures price. Best laugh I've had in some time...

http://www.bordoverview.com/?q=price
 
Posts: 2207 | Location: Chicago Suburbs | Registered: Oct 25, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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I just got the email for '07 Chateau Margaux futures, $428 a bottle. They will have a hard time moving this. I just got 3 bottles of '05 D'Arenberg Dead Shiraz for 1/4th the price of one or these bottles. A much wiser investment!!


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Posts: 1094 | Registered: Mar 21, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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I’ll probably just cherry pick 06 & 07 when the wines hit the store. No futures for me. Bordeaux buyer at my LWS said they are getting killed on 06 and expect to get killed on 07. All so they can keep their large allocation.
 
Posts: 6557 | Location: OC, CA  | Registered: Aug 01, 2007Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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I will buy some wine in the $15 to $39.99 price range. These wines are being billed as wines that will drink well young . I got an email from K&L and most first growths were about $419.99. That is a lot of money for a bottle of wine. For goodness sakes, it is just a bottle of wine.
 
Posts: 8759 | Location: North CA | Registered: May 28, 2005Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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Still seems like a lot of money for those 1st growths, especially compared to the 2004 vintage. I can find 2001 1st growths for under $300.

The other day I was picking up some 2005 futures and I asked the wine manager how their 2007 futures were going and I was told that I was the ONLY person so far to purchase any 2007. Nobody else looking at Sauternes?
 
Posts: 2207 | Location: Chicago Suburbs | Registered: Oct 25, 2006Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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I know they're not similar wines, but from a comparison standpoint I just bought some 1971 Huet Clos du Bourg for less than half the price of as-yet unbottled 2007 First Growths...
 
Posts: 427 | Registered: Feb 06, 2008Reply With QuoteReport This Post
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