i just spit KB all over my screen!

quote:

Originally posted by TERPS:
I think we are going to see a big correction coming soon with wine prices. The bubble is just about to Burst!

The demand controls the prices. Just read all the peoples reactions from the new L and M offer and the Sloan...Many people are passing. These wineries are shooting themselves in the foot. Bad economy people have not even gotten their 04 vintages now lets go raise the price up and sit on their money for two vintages before they even get one...LOL

quote:

Originally posted by TERPS:
The demand controls the prices. Just read all the peoples reactions from the new L and M offer and the Sloan...Many people are passing. These wineries are shooting themselves in the foot. Bad economy people have not even gotten their 04 vintages now lets go raise the price up and sit on their money for two vintages before they even get one...LOL

These Cult wineries are not shooting themselves in the foot. Here is why. When I first got into wines, it did not take me long to find out about the Cult Wines and I signed up for a number of waiting lists.

Some on their mailing list lose interest probably due to getting too highly priced. So they lose some customers, but not really. Someone on the waiting list who is happy to finally get in will think nothing of paying whatever the price is and they count on people like that. Many of the people on these waiting lists are loaded with money and could care less what the cost is, they want to have a wine that hardly anyone else has, they want that trophy wine.

As the interest in wine grows, so will the interest in Cult Wines. For every customer they lose who are just not going to pay that much for wine, they will have a new customer who can't wait to shell out the cash fast enough to get their order in.

Me, I passed on my first offering from Harlan, and Levy McClellan. Last year when I got my first offer from Sloan Estate, I ordered my 3 bottles. But with my 2nd offering I just got, when I saw they jacked up the price $85 to a price of $325 a bottle, I am going to pass. Although part of me wants to buy it just to flip it, but them I am worried nobody will want it and then I am stuck with it. I am also passing on Levy McClellan's second offering I just got as well. But my passing on them will have zero impact. When I talked to Sloan(and they have great customer service), they told me their waiting list is long. So when I hear that, I know I am no big loss, there is just a replacement waiting for me.


I really believe the Cult Wineries are the biggest problem with the big increase in the other California wineries prices. These wineries see these Cult Wineries charging huge money for their wines and getting these high ratings, some of them might figure if they raise their prices it might get more attention from the critics and a few higher points. To the more common wine buyer who is not as educated as we are in this forum, they see that high priced wine and think because it is so high priced it must be one of the best you can buy. Believe it or not, there are not nearly as many people as us in here that know some great values in wine. Many outside of us think, the higher the price the better it must be.


I have lost my interest in California Cult Wines. There are so many great California Wines out there at good prices. I will stand by my personal favorites of: Ridge, Dunn, Togni, Montelena, Seavey.

I can hardly wait to stop by Anderson's Conn Valley, excellent wines period. Nice prices as well. There are others out there as well. Mount Eden in Santa Cruz.


However, while these prices keep going up, I am looking more and more into Washington and will be headed up there soon. You can get some great wines Long Shadows, Betz and Cayuse to name just a small select few. Leonetti and Quilceda Creek, two Washington Cult wines with very long waiting list, their wines are cheaper then the many Napa Valley wineries flagship wines.

If there were a correction in the pricing of cult Cabs, and I do not believe that there will be, it will be counteracted by the upward pricing of those wines that are my “bread & butter” drinkers – mid- to lower-priced Spanish & French reds. I’ve already noticed that the pricing of these wines has been going up slightly for no other reason than the weak dollar. In addition, the upward pressure on pricing will be influenced by increased energy costs. Energy costs have been heavily influencing the pricing of many grocery items – dairy products, meat, produce, etc. Certain polymers and steel items that I source domestically and from overseas have been going up in pricing because the manufacturing costs of these items have been going up. In short, any item that requires a lot of energy expenditures during the manufacturing process and/or those items that must be shipped great distances to their point of sale will eventually have upward pricing pressure – this includes wine.

Perhaps some of the older posters can fill us in with wine prices during the last recession in the 80s with the savings and loans crisis.

Or what was with wine prices during the russia collapse in 98.

Personally, while i do have enough expendable income to buy the nicer wines, having my "nest egg" drop ~15% in the past two weeks isn't making me comfortable.

I've passed on all mailing lists this year so far as like most nyers my mortgage + maintanence takes a bigger chunk and definite precedence over my wine enjoyment.

In the mean time, it's beer, coke and marlboros for me.. (pepsi is too sweet)

quote:

Originally posted by g-man:
..... having my "nest egg" drop ~15% in the past two weeks isn't making me comfortable. ...

In the mean time, it's beer, coke and marlboros for me.. (pepsi is too sweet)

Nest egg has dropped? Start piling more into it while you can do it at a “discount.” On the Marlboros; quit and use that money for wine. I’m amazed at how much money the smokers that I know spend on cigs.

quote:

Originally posted by Altaholic:

quote:

Originally posted by g-man:
..... having my "nest egg" drop ~15% in the past two weeks isn't making me comfortable. ...

In the mean time, it's beer, coke and marlboros for me.. (pepsi is too sweet)

Nest egg has dropped? Start piling more into it while you can do it at a “discount.” On the Marlboros; quit and use that money for wine. I’m amazed at how much money the smokers that I know spend on cigs.

1 sloan == 6 months of cigarettes. =) I dont think it's a fair trade at all

Terps...did you buy the Staglin or not?

I stopped buying the Staglin in 97.

It appears people are not buying all their allocations and it will lead to the headline of this topic. Just this week Sloan sent me an e mail with an offer to buy more of the 04 Vintage. Bond sent me a letter to remind me that I didnt order this vintage and just today the owner of Pax called me and said he was taking a survey on why people didnt order this vintage. There is no doubt in my mind prices will be correcting on most labels.

I'm waiting for some Frenchman to call me and ask why I haven't ordered any 2006 Bordeaux futures.

quote:

Originally posted by RDCollins:
Don't hold your breath, son. I've been in this game for nearly 40 years, and I've been waiting for the "price correction" for about 35.

I'm only 35, so I don't have as much experience. I've been reading that people have been saying there will be a correction for close to 10 years since I started buying wines. From what I hear people were saying a correction is coming for a lot longer than that. I wish there was. But it doesn't look it from here.

i do not think any correction is going to happen!
but,
1)the selling of vineyard's
2)smaller production's of the cults
3)selling of the seconds(grapes)
just my two cents!!!!!!

Most people who I know who buy high end wines have all cut way back. Increased prices a bad economy its basic economics. People need gas, food and oil, wine is clearly extra money left over. The wineries are not sending out this letters offering more wine because people are all taking their allocations. Its basic supply and demand. If you not selling all of your current vintage then you are no going to raise the price on your next vintage. We shall see.

I think Levy Mclellan also go a big wake up call from the response from their mailer this year. They had to send out an e mail asking if everyone got their mailer. Yes we all did and here in the north east it went into many fireplaces as kindling.

It has arrived.

I just received a mailer from Kapcsandy and they are LOWERING their prices on their 2006 wine release below their 2005 prices. A savings of $15 on the Grand Vin, $10 on the Roberta's Reserve, and $5 on the Rose plus free ground shipping if you purchase over $500. Other wineries have also offerred free shipping as well but this is the first to offer a price reduction for me.

I can tell from my e-mail that the correction for the overpriced 05 Bordeaux is underway already. Anyone want 20% off lots of the top wines? The e-mail offerings are just pouring in lately.

The correction has arrived!

this yearly anouncement has been brought to you by TERPS.

Please elaborate. Aside from 06 Caymus SS, I haven't seen a lot of great deals. Staglin and Insignia still selling for $150 (not buying). Slight reduction in Peter Michael les Pavots (couldn't resist). If there are some blockbuster savings out there, I'm not seeing them in my market.

quote:

Originally posted by TBird:
this yearly anouncement has been brought to you by TERPS.

Brahahahahhaaaa..

But on a serious note, some places have thrown in free shipping, others have kept their prices level and others have not done a thing. Hardly a correction in my book. Sorry TERPS, but we disagree again. Prove to me that top cabernet producers have lowered their prices and I might agree.

TERPS,

I have seen some corrections. More in line with the rising tide makes all boats rise. Not hugely sought after stuff.

Anyways....

Olivier LeFlaive Chablis and Mersault from $40 down to $20 and $23

Paul Jaboulet Aine Crozes Thalabert about $30 or $35 down to $20

Planeta Burdese $36 down to $20

Chapoutier Gigondas $40 down to $22

I saw an 04 Hemritage that was $100 off but forgot the producer, maybe Jaboulet or maybe Chapoutier or maybe somone else.

Pick a country at KL and just browse, look for the "was" price, plenty of price reductions.

Recent purchases for me have been 05 Opus at 124.99 05 Insignia at 120.00 07 Merry Edwards Pinot Russian River at 42.99 07 ME Sonoma at 36.99...2006 Onellaia at 125.00...I guess it all depends where you are shopping but I have seen great deals out there....And all the cult wines can be had for less then mailing list prices.

Since you bought Opus, I'm not sure anything you say has merit.............

LOL I guess you feel we should all have the same tastes and opinions on everything...You would probably fit in very well in the middle east.