It's crazy out there. Some are trying to raise prices, some are trying to lower. For example:

Groth and Caymus seem to have realized that they aren't going to easily dump 10,000 cases of $150 CA Cab. right now...so they're trying to meet market demands. The 2005 and 2006 Groth Reserve Cab. is down from $150 to $89. Likewise, the Caymus S.S. is down from $150 to $99.

Then...I see the 2006 Cheval Blanc on pre-arrival for $769!! The 1998 (a superb example of this estate) can be readily had for $600. Or the '83 at $500. Or...the 2008 on pre-arrival for $489 (nearly identical scoring to the 2006...which is almost twice the price).

How about Salon? You can have the 1997 for $375? Or...you can go after the far more heralded 1996 which is still out there for $279-299 because it still has not sold out at that price!

How about Ch. Lascombes? The 2005 is readily available for $69 and IMHO is the best they've ever made. Or you can have the 2001 for $79+?

Burgundy is crazy too.....

And, I don't really see a lot of wine moving. Even when it's put on sale? The only thing that was, and still is in demand seems to be 1st growth Bordeaux in China and Hong Kong....they can't seem to ship that stuff over there quick enough!

Where does it go from here?

Just got an offer for 2006 Mouton at $600/btl.

Which is about the same price the 1986 has been going for at auction...only it has the 3 digit score, and considering how many bottles have been consumed over the years is now in far less supply. I think we have a ways to go, before pricing is fully corrected...

Honestly...outside of Asia...who's buying 2006 Mouton in this environment for $600?

I just picked up an 05 Mouton for $485. Taking advantage of the down turn to pick up some great anniversary year wines.

I am really curious about 07 Bordeaux prices when retail shelves are still stocked with 05 and 06.

i agree with all that you say here ... i think some producers are hoping the global economy pulls out of its downswing, and instills immediate consumer confidence. Perhaps, in a luxury-item market, such as wine, such confidence could be quickly regained ... but I wouldn’t be willing to bank on it. I wouldn’t be surprised to see many marquee names ride out this storm, many to their ultimate demise, perhaps.

What I find strange is that some retailer's get it and others dont. Total Wine has refused to lower their Caymus SS and I see stacks of it in their store for $149 a bottle.

Drab gets a pre arrival offer for 2006 CHeval for $769. JJ buckley has 1.5's of this wine for less than $700.

I get trying to recoup your costs but at some point it makes sense to cut bait and take your losses so you can put that money to work on things that will bring in a profit.

quote:

Originally posted by jburman82:
What I find strange is that some retailer's get it and others dont. Total Wine has refused to lower their Caymus SS and I see stacks of it in their store for $149 a bottle.

Drab gets a pre arrival offer for 2006 CHeval for $769. JJ buckley has 1.5's of this wine for less than $700.

I get trying to recoup your costs but at some point it makes sense to cut bait and take your losses so you can put that money to work on things that will bring in a profit.

this is like the person who keeps chasing an open-ended straight in the face of a huge bet on 4th street that paired the board.

quote:

Drab gets a pre arrival offer for 2006 CHeval for $769. JJ buckley has 1.5's of this wine for less than $700.

This is exactly what I'm talking about. Premier Cru has it for $499/btl....somewhere in between.

It's all over the map right now. Seems like lots of people have been holding out on lowering prices in hopes of a rebound. But...the floodgates are opening, and once one person lowers the price, then the others are almost forced to as well. Between now and spring of next year it will be interesting to see where this all goes...

Vineyards are for sale and wine prices are falling.

Why anyone would pay $400 to $800 for a bottle (25.4 ounces) of wine you must cellar for 15+ years is difficult to understand. Perhaps Chateaux and Negociants just want you to believe their wines are selling at those prices. Don't fall for this trick.

I suggest all consider looking for the bargains, like Caymus SS, and avoid the $800 bottles!

I agree and have witnessed the same. Present strategy has been to stay calm and pick off the obvious good deals. Recent market releases are not necessarily the most prudent purchase. It's a real carnival atmosphere at the moment.

Those greedy retailers tooting their horn, trying to attract suckers can deal with that strategy on their own. Good luck to them.

This market demands one become pricing savvy (if you haven't done so already). It is up to you, individually, to know if you're paying 'fair market value'.

(what was that thread again, about whether W-S is worth the subscription price? )

Reported from a German wine store in the Rhine region:

Customer: I'd like two cases of your most expensive wine.
Retailer: Would you like a dry, an off dry, or a swee....(interrupted)
Customer: I don't care what kind it is, just give me the most expensive you've got.

My guess is that as more people are drinking high-end wine, there are other distinguishing characteristics outside of style and budget, one of which is buying savvy.

As an example, while I think Insignia can show well vs. other $225 cab blends, the wine is readily available for less, though it won't likely return to pre-2002 pricing. In any case, to my amazement, a couple years ago the LWS easily sold its allotment of 2004 Insignia at $230.

Even outside of high-end old-world wines and inconic high volume CA Cabs, there is also the new practice of Garagiste style "holy cow this is great deal" e-mails from LWSs or even ventures totally dedictated to this marketing. At best, unlike Garagiste or other similar mailers that sell niche or unknown wines, these offers seem to me deals that bring a high-volume, overpriced wine back to a fair value, listing a fairy-tale "original price," but often the wines are also off vintages/bottlings, just to add injury to insult.

If you know what you're doing, and are familiar with at least cellar tracker and wine-searcher, you can get some good deals. But if you're not careful, you might end up with some really poor QPR transactions, or at least overpaying.

I think that some retailers are just stuck with many wines and are unable to sell at a substantial discount without taking a loss (mostly true for Bordeaux 2006+). Their timing was probably poor when they bought or they weren't given a good enough deal when they purchased. Too bad really. They are sitting on piles of 2006 and 2007 with little relief in sight. Some will have to take a loss eventually (if they are allowed to by local laws), so the sooner the better for us buyers.

quote:

Originally posted by aphilla:
Reported from a German wine store in the Rhine region:

Customer: I'd like two cases of your most expensive wine.
Retailer: Would you like a dry, an off dry, or a swee....(interrupted)
Customer: I don't care what kind it is, just give me the most expensive you've got.

My guess would be that that merchants Qba just tripled.

Primordeal Soup....

I agree. Someone is going to have to take a loss. And...unless I'm missing something...the Western world is in bad shape, with a long slow recovery ahead. The East is doing far better than us, but is only interested in 1st Growth Bordeaux and some high end Burgundy. That leaves a lot of wine looking for buyers that aren't there anymore! And, they're not coming back anytime soon. So that leaves the retailers, importers, and distributers as the ones to grab ankle. I won't be surprised if we come to find out that beer is once again the #1 alcoholic beverage sold. Or to see more 2 buck chuck brands emerge.

I also don't see how the Bordelais are going to keep the futures market afloat? Who the hell wants to buy futures in a market like this! Not only are 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 not as good as 2000 or 2005, but the prices are stratospheric, and the demand is (from what I can see) non-existent! I have no desire to have any money tied up in over-priced, off vintage, volatile market conditions, Bordeaux! The futures game, for me was killed with 2005. They shot themselves in the foot. Granted...they've got cash reserves from the obscene prices they've been fetching, and will probably sit on this stuff for the next few vintages and release it later, but still....you better hope demand goes way up down the road if you're sitting on this much wine!

Dr., I can't imagine futures selling at all. Like you said, how could there be any real demand? Maybe a few trophy collectors, but no real consumers- and that is where the volume is. It is very likely we will be able to buy '06-'09 over the next several years below futures pricing as well as any "deals" there are now. And once again, this is good news for the consumers out there.

At work our rep is offering the 2006 Caymus SS in an offer for each six pack you buy you get a free bottle putting it under $100 cost. I'm thinking it may go even lower in price as people just are not buying much wine at country clubs around the Twin Cities for more than $100 off the wine list.

I am surprised to not see a discussion in this thread of currency values. Regarding scarce European wines, the dollar is being trashed and is headed quite a bit lower. Therefore the Euro is headed higher. Europe, China, Russia and others will be the buyers for these scarce "in demand" wines. Some US outlets will have cheaper prices because they sourced and paid for these wines one or two years ago.

As to California wines, I am surprised if Caymus and Groth can sell their wines at these new discounted prices. I just moved my office from Sacramento to Sebastopol in western Sonoma County. In 2008 Sonoma County chardonnay was selling for $2200 per ton. In 2009 if you do not have a contract for your grapes, the same wine is selling for $250 per ton. 90% less than last year. The Santa Rosa Press Democrat reported last week that 20-25% of the grapes will be left hanging on the vine. This is a crash.I anticipate fabulous pricing in 2010 for the consumer who wants North Coast wine. I am buying 2007 Kermit Lynch Cotes-du-Rhone for $13. It is really excellent. I am not going to pay $50-100 for wine that may not be as good as this.

Sorry for the rant but everything is changing in real time.

Great points Pippin. I'm frightened for our dollar in the next year or two...

quote:

Originally posted by dr.darkrichandbold:
Great points Pippin. I'm frightened for our dollar in the next year or two...

Perfect time to pay down real debt and let luxury items such as 1st growths from France and cult cali wines find their own bottom. The pendulum always swings both ways and eventually stabilizes in the middle.

As to our friends on the other side of the pond, since they think Bordeaux and Burgundy are such great bargains (and all the marketing hype that goes with it), they can feel free to drink it themselves.

C'mon it is just fermented grapes.

quote:

Originally posted by JPBone:
The pendulum always swings both ways and eventually stabilizes in the middle.

Great Metaphor --> Pendulum
But not sure will it ever stabilizes. In my opinion, where there is money, there will be speculation.

quote:

Originally posted by dr.darkrichandbold:

quote:

Drab gets a pre arrival offer for 2006 CHeval for $769. JJ buckley has 1.5's of this wine for less than $700.

This is exactly what I'm talking about. Premier Cru has it for $499/btl...

JJ Buckley has the regular bottle 2006 Cheval Blanc for $330. It is a waiting game and patience is the key. Retailers cannot sit on inventory over an extended period.

went to a local wine store and saw an 05 Ch St. Jean Cinq Cepages for $30...

Wow....gone are Cinq's glory days. That's a good buy.

Spoke to one of the K&L guys this afternoon and he said that there's going to be more wines going to be liquidated soon...

The prices of the '07 & '08 German rieslings were recently slashed about 25% around here. They still don't look like they're moving much. Don't know if it's the economy or that everyone stocked up on the '05's and people are allocating their money elsewhere. Either way there's lots of good bargains on Rieslings to be had right now.